2707 Marbourne Ave · Baltimore, MD 21230

$169,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · Townhouse public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1961 Est $153k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.4/15.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The house was recently appraised at 176,500. A copy of the appraisal can be emailed at your request. Title work has also been completed by Swan Title. Welcome to 2707 Marbourne Ave, a charming brick townhome in Baltimore’s Lakeland community. This well-maintained home features three spacious bedrooms and a fully renovated bathroom on the upper level. Enjoy peace of mind with a new roof, new refrigerator, new stove, and new water heater — all recently updated for your convenience. Located directly across from Lakeland Elementary and Middle School, this home offers a wonderful neighborhood feel with easy access to parks, shopping, and major commuter routes. Move right in and start

Key facts

• Brick townhome
• New stove
• New water heater

Tags

• BRICK TOWNHOME
• FULLY RENOVATED BATHROOM
• NEW ROOF
• NEW REFRIGERATOR
• NEW STOVE
• NEW WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 362 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $170k implies a 464% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,351 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.02%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $152,576
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2707 Marbourne Ave	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,024 (0%)	1mo	$176,500	$172	99
2839 Hinsdale Dr	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,024 (0%)	4mo	$152,000	$148	86
2557 Southdene Ave	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,024 (0%)	6mo	$155,000	$151	84
2628 Northshire Dr	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,024 (0%)	4mo	$175,000	$171	84
2619 Northshire Dr	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,024 (0%)	2mo	$145,000	$142	84
3025 Mallview Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,024 (0%)	7mo	$138,500	$135	83
2704 Marbourne Ave	0.03mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,024 (0%)	6mo	$240,000	$234	83
2639 Northshire Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,024 (0%)	5mo	$120,000	$117	78
3034 Lorena Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,024 (0%)	1mo	$153,000	$149	74
2630 Alaska St	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,008 (-2%)	7mo	$85,000	$84	58
2521 S Paca St	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,152 (+12%)	1mo	$30,000	$26	44
2439 Ridgely St	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,152 (+12%)	4mo	$222,000	$193	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-12,659
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-5,733
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21230

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,836 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,049/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,434

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2200 W Patapsco Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	890	$1,569	$1.76	43d	1	0.16mi
3004 Elizabeth Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,395	$1.36	4d	1	0.42mi
2600 W Patapsco Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	856	$1,309	$1.53	2d	24	0.43mi
3017 Janice Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,995	$1.95	23d	1	0.45mi
2056 Griffis Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1230	$1,495	$1.22	21d	1	0.94mi
2745 Round Rd Brooklyn, MD	2.0	2.0	756	$1,800	$2.38	43d	1	0.94mi
2454 Terra Firma Rd Brooklyn, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,650	$1.61	14d	1	1.01mi
902 Catawba Ct Halethorpe, MD	3.0	1.0	906	$1,495	$1.65	21d	1	1.04mi
1931 Griffis Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	912	$1,349	$1.48	3d	1	1.06mi
3111 Bero Rd Halethorpe, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,750	$1.71	43d	1	1.09mi
3010 Alabama Ave Halethorpe, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$2,200	$2.44	17d	1	1.11mi
607 Cheraton Rd Brooklyn, MD	3.0	3.0	1200	$1,750	$1.46	14d	1	1.12mi
1708 Hall Ave Unit 2 Halethorpe, MD	2.0	1.0	845	$1,625	$1.92	11d	1	1.29mi
2715 Hammonds Ferry Rd Halethorpe, MD	2.0	1.0	992	$1,500	$1.51	43d	1	1.29mi
2868 Potee St Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	720	$1,599	$2.22	2d	22	1.41mi
4369 Hollins Ferry Rd Halethorpe, MD	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,900	$1.65	43d	1	1.42mi
3167 Ryerson Cir Halethorpe, MD	3.0	1.5	1116	$1,995	$1.79	4d	1	1.43mi
3269 Ryerson Cir Halethorpe, MD	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,700	$1.30	10d	1	1.44mi
511 Seagull Ave Brooklyn, MD	2.0	1.0	756	$1,550	$2.05	23d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   price $169,900
3. 2026-03-18
   listed $173,000 Active
4. 2026-02-19
   status Pending
5. 2026-02-19
   historical
6. 2026-01-06
   listed $170,000 Active
7. 2026-01-06
   historical
8. 2025-12-01
   price $179,000
9. 2025-11-18
   listed $185,000 Active
10. 2025-11-13
    historical
11. 2016-12-15
    soldstatus $30,150
12. 2016-12-07
    soldstatus $30,150 Sold
13. 2016-11-07
    status Contract
14. 2016-10-28
    listed $27,000 Active
15. 1988-01-07
    soldstatus $37,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,049 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,049 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,032
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,049
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,763
• − Management: −$1,763
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $1,149
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$276
• After-tax cash flow: $3,540/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 32,977
• Household income: $91,842
• Rent vs Own: 49.3% rent · 50.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1463.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -311.43%
• Current HPI: 284.338
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.00%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+359.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $169,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $173,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-19 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-19 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-06 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $170,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $179,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-13 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-12-15 Sold (MLS) $30,150 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-12-07 Sold (MLS) $30,150 MRIS
• 2016-11-07 Pending — MRIS
• 2016-10-28 Listed $27,000 MRIS
• 1988-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,049 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.