615 W Main St · Providence, KY 42450

$65,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 448 sqft · Other · 121 Days on market

4.00 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Private 4-acre wooded retreat featuring a 2025 tiny home with city water, sewer, and electric already in place. Enjoy established walking trails and a cut-through access road, offering both privacy and convenience. Perfect as a weekend getaway, investment property, or minimalist full-time residence. Modern utilities with secluded charm. ”

Key facts

• Sewer
• City water
• Electric

Tags

• 4 ACRE WOODED RETREAT
• ESTABLISHED WALKING TRAILS
• CUT-THROUGH ACCESS ROAD
• CITY WATER
• SEWER
• ELECTRIC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $94 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($764 rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#352 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Webster County (rural): math 25% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #114 of 165 in KY (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Webster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Webster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $65k implies a 333% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.45%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $22,495
• Equity at exit: $38,415

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.42×
• Total profit: $62,277
• Equity at exit: $67,644

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42450

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $764 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $195/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$160
• Net cashflow: $94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $645

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $131	-5% $112	+0% $94	+5% $75	+10% $57
Rent	-10% $34	-5% $64	+0% $94	+5% $124	+10% $154
Rate	-1.0pp $127	-0.5pp $110	base $94	+0.5pp $77	+1.0pp $60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $65,000 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $65,000 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $65,000 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $65,000 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 100 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 99 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    price $65,000 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Private 4-acre wooded retreat featuring a 2025 tiny home with city water, sewer, and electric already in place. Enjoy established walking trails and a cut-through access road, offering both privacy and convenience. Perfect as a weekend getaway, investment property, or minimalist full-time residence. Modern utilities with secluded charm. ”

19. 2026-02-20
    listed $75,000 Active 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Private 4-acre wooded retreat featuring a 2025 tiny home with city water, sewer, and electric already in place. Enjoy established walking trails and a cut-through access road, offering both privacy and convenience. Perfect as a weekend getaway, investment property, or minimalist full-time residence. Modern utilities with secluded charm. ”

20. 2026-02-20
    listed $75,000 Active 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Private 4-acre wooded retreat featuring a 2025 tiny home with city water, sewer, and electric already in place. Enjoy established walking trails and a cut-through access road, offering both privacy and convenience. Perfect as a weekend getaway, investment property, or minimalist full-time residence. Modern utilities with secluded charm. ”

21. 1986-10-01
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $195 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $559 · $47/mo
• Expected delta: +$364/yr (+$30/mo · 187.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone A · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,164
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$195
• − Insurance: −$1,828
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$733
• − Management: −$733
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $143
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$34
• After-tax cash flow: $1,092/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Webster County
• NCES district ID: 2105820
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $39,542
• Composite: 24.76/100
• National rank: #7600
• State rank: #114 of 165 in KY

Livability — Providence

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #352
• US rank: #16669

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Providence, KY
• Population (ZIP): 3,589

Population outlook (Webster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,548 people
• By 2030: 12,119 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 11,345 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 10,761 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 10,166 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 10,546 · -16.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 12% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Iranian 1% Russian 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Webster

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.4) · D 20.8% · R 78.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.7pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -57.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.4 2020: R+51.6 2016: R+54.4 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.40%
• Current HPI: 240.0686
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+333.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $65,000 MHCBOR
• 2026-02-20 Listed $75,000 MHCBOR
• 2026-02-20 Listed $75,000 MHCBOR
• 1986-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $195 · +425.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.