6926 Garnet Trail Ln · Rosenberg, TX 77469

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,445 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2007 8,550 sqft lot Est $237k · at est. $28/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A true gem located in the Sunrise Meadow Subdivision. This Adorable 3bed 2ba home is beautifully wrapped in laminate flooring accompanied by fresh coats of paint. The open concept is suitable for entertainment purpose and will be appreciated by new owner as it features a split floor plan for more comfort and exclusion. For those sunny days to come, the property features a large backyard for the sorts of bbq's and outdoor fun. Community features recreational fishing lake, to parks & walking trails within the community! Live and enjoy the convenient shopping and dining in the Brazos Town Center! Life is grand!

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Split-bedroom design
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPLIT-BEDROOM DESIGN
• GENEROUS BACKYARD
• RECREATIONAL FISHING LAKE
• SCENIC WALKING TRAILS
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Community: Sunrise Meadow; Annual association fee of $335

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2007; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 12); Two additional first-floor bedrooms (approx. 10 x 10 and 10 x 9)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity in bathroom; Jetted tub; Separate shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-285 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (20.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1345 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,619 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.99%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $236,980
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7103 Lilac Manor Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-6%)	0mo	$240,000	$178	85
7206 Lilac Manor Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-6%)	0mo	$229,900	$170	82
4303 Sunflower Creek Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-6%)	4mo	$229,000	$169	76
4815 Monarch Falls Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,373 (-5%)	2mo	$239,000	$174	72
6823 Manor Terrace Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,342 (-7%)	2mo	$219,900	$164	67
4727 Evening Place Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,638 (+13%)	1mo	$249,900	$153	62
7211 Nettle Springs Ct	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,623 (+12%)	3mo	$229,900	$142	62
6915 Atwood Preserve Ct	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+11%)	2mo	$210,000	$131	61
4907 Flagstone Pine Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+11%)	2mo	$249,000	$155	58
4906 Evening Place Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,654 (+14%)	1mo	$255,000	$154	54
6623 Canary Knoll Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,610 (+11%)	3mo	$322,008	$200	44
5014 Alder Bend Ln	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,630 (+13%)	2mo	$240,000	$147	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-63,853
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.49×
• Total profit: $-102,097
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77469

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1345
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,108 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$536 /mo · $6,430/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,469

Max offer price $194,619

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-147	-5% $-216	+0% $-285	+5% $-355	+10% $-424
Rent	-10% $-452	-5% $-368	+0% $-285	+5% $-202	+10% $-119
Rate	-1.0pp $-162	-0.5pp $-223	base $-285	+0.5pp $-349	+1.0pp $-413

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4106 Falling Trace Ln Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1123	$2,150	$1.91	23d	1	0.18mi
4607 Wheatstone Ct Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1721	$1,865	$1.08	14d	1	0.27mi
6958 Chessgate Falls Ln Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$2,000	$1.46	20d	1	0.44mi
4927 Monarch Falls Ln Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,750	$1.27	45d	1	0.50mi
4815 Highland Springs Dr Richmond, TX	3.0	2.5	1582	$1,500	$0.95	45d	1	0.51mi
6330 Highland Bend Dr Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1429	$2,000	$1.40	45d	1	0.53mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $245,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,430 · $536/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,430 · $536/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$6,430
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,024
• − Management: −$2,024
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$7,591
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,822
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,601/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 115,151
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,826
• Household income: $102,125
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1292.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 29% White 27% Black 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.66%
• Current HPI: 234.9892
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.81%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+92.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2021-01-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-01-11 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-11-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-11-02 Listed $188,000 HARMLS
• 2020-08-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-08-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-08-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-08-13 Listed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2011-06-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-12-18 Listed $127,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,430 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.