11535 Criterion Ave · Spanish Lake, MO 63138

$59,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,015 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1959 7,810 sqft lot Est $93k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home! This beautifully updated Ranch home is tastefully updated and easy to love from the minute you walk through the front door. The kitchen boasts all new cabinets, counter tops, new appliances (including fridge), updated bathrooms, freshly painted throughout, large fenced backyard and much more. The Partially finished lower level provides additional space to entertain or to use any way you need. The large fenced back yard has a covered patio and plenty of room to entertain and have summer bbq's. You won't want to miss this home! Schedule your showing today! Seller offering 2,000 flooring credit towards buyers closing costs.

Key facts

• Generous yard
• Full basement
• 7,810 sq ft lot

Tags

• FULL BASEMENT
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY AREA
• GENEROUS YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage; Total 1 parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service (other)
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; House structure
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built year listed in public records
• Exterior features: Level lot; Paved road access; No exterior amenities listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances listed as other
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Partially finished basement; Other appliances
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $640 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Cap rate 19.1% vs local median 7.9% in Spanish Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#870 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Twillman Elem. (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,072 of 1,115 statewide, top 98%, 326 students, 99% FRL); Hazelwood East High (math 5% / reading 21%, grade F, #495 of 521 statewide, top 95%, 1,264 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 53% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.82%
• DSCR: 3.04
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $93,380
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1316 Bayonne Dr	0.06mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,015 (0%)	2mo	$105,000	$103	91
1328 Coppergate Ln	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,061 (+4%)	0mo	$104,900	$99	82
1072 Prigge Rd	0.40mi	3/1.5	960 (-5%)	1mo	$99,900	$104	72
1459 Cove Ln	0.48mi	3/1.5	988 (-3%)	3mo	$79,900	$81	71
1200 Baron Ave	0.17mi	3/1.0	864 (-15%)	2mo	$77,500	$90	64
1135 Cove Ln	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (-8%)	2mo	$85,000	$91	57
1231 Reale Ave	0.34mi	2/1.5 (-1)	864 (-15%)	2mo	$69,900	$81	52
1459 Redman Blvd	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,150 (+13%)	2mo	$115,000	$100	52
1202 Laredo Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+14%)	2mo	$99,500	$86	48
931 Prigge Rd	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,160 (+14%)	2mo	$175,000	$151	43
1018 Lakeview Ave	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,137 (+12%)	2mo	$95,000	$84	42
1209 Northdale Ave	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-15%)	1mo	$79,900	$92	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $26,972
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.59×
• Total profit: $60,145
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63138

• Home prices YoY: -31.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,424 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,743/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $640

Break-even live

Break-even rent $613

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $674	-5% $657	+0% $640	+5% $623	+10% $606
Rent	-10% $528	-5% $584	+0% $640	+5% $697	+10% $753
Rate	-1.0pp $671	-0.5pp $656	base $640	+0.5pp $625	+1.0pp $609

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1310 Petite Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1407	$1,495	$1.06	24d	1	0.15mi
11726 Criterion Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,420	$1.18	24d	1	0.25mi
1141 Scott Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,400	$1.62	22d	1	0.26mi
1172 June Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1142	$1,400	$1.23	44d	1	0.28mi
1218 Walker Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,275	$1.36	24d	1	0.29mi
1223 Walker Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	936	$1,800	$1.92	44d	1	0.30mi
1376 Cove Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	925	$1,365	$1.48	24d	1	0.35mi
1359 Cove Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	925	$1,427	$1.54	2d	1	0.37mi
11891 Bridgevale Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,350	$1.56	24d	1	0.46mi
1132 Redman Blvd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1080	$1,195	$1.11	44d	1	0.50mi
1504 Redman Blvd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1014	$1,299	$1.28	5d	1	0.52mi
1459 Redman Blvd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.5	1150	$1,550	$1.35	20d	1	0.53mi
1202 Laredo Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,450	$1.26	16d	1	0.56mi
11185 Oak Parkway Ln St. Louis, MO	2.0–3.0	2.0	1412	$1,075	$0.76	2d	1	0.59mi
1516 Farmview Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1156	$1,295	$1.12	44d	1	0.60mi
11930 Criterion Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,350	$1.65	44d	1	0.62mi
1455 Broadlawns Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,395	$1.53	13d	1	0.69mi
1473 Broadlawns Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	44d	1	0.70mi
11921 Larimore Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1078	$1,100	$1.02	44d	1	0.74mi
941 Pike Ct St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1431	$1,255	$0.88	4d	1	0.88mi
941 Pike Ct St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1431	$1,255	$0.88	24d	1	0.88mi
12035 Krenning Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1170	$1,125	$0.96	24d	1	0.88mi
1708 San Remo Ct St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1053	$1,300	$1.23	2d	9	0.97mi
1321 Dominica Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1012	$1,400	$1.38	44d	1	1.10mi
1911 Redman Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1454	$1,495	$1.03	2d	1	1.33mi
11969 Continental Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0–3.0	1.5	1075	$1,325	$1.23	2d	3	1.41mi
10527 Prestwick Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	854	$1,395	$1.63	8d	1	1.42mi
10421 Gardo Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	15d	1	1.43mi
257 Glen Garry Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	873	$1,025	$1.17	15d	1	1.45mi
10518 Gretna Cir Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1082	$1,450	$1.34	24d	1	1.45mi
12367 Horizon Village Dr Unit 12367 I St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	836	$995	$1.19	24d	1	1.46mi
1205 Shepley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	901	$1,325	$1.47	24d	1	1.48mi
1205 Shepley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	901	$1,350	$1.50	44d	1	1.48mi
10524 Durness Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	44d	1	1.49mi
10650 Dunkeld Cir Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,250	$1.46	8d	1	1.49mi
10508 Druid Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,475	$1.31	16d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 314-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $59,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,743 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,743 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,084
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$1,743
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,367
• − Management: −$1,367
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $7,210
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,730
• After-tax cash flow: $5,954/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Spanish Lake

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #870
• US rank: #25189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spanish Lake, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,233
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,233
• Household income: $56,096
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 925.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 81% White 14% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.09%
• Current HPI: 165.2146
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+19.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $59,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $73,500 Public Records
• 2019-09-13 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-24 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-20 Price Changed $82,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-08 Price Changed $85,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-19 Listed $89,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-12-21 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-12 Listed $34,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $102,500 Public Records
• 1999-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $61,500 Public Records
• 1992-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 1992-04-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,743 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.