3438 S Hill Rd · McGraw, NY 13101

$75,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,073 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1860 $36/sqft · 63% below area ↓ 1% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

This is a handyman special home, but with solid bones. Currently set up as a duplex, but could easily be made into a single family home. Nice rural setting, with all other houses nearby being nice. Has a 2 car garage. Great location with all neighbors having nice upkept homes.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1860
• Listed 70 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#411 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Mcgraw Central School District (rural): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #252 of 590 in NY (top 43%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Cortland County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Cortland County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $61k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1860 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $70,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1860 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.35%
• DSCR: 3.73
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,744
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -62.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.86% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.05×
• Total profit: $85,081
• Equity at exit: $41,852

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.1%
• Equity multiple: 10.45×
• Total profit: $198,452
• Equity at exit: $71,700

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13101

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,015 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $1,074

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,125	-5% $1,099	+0% $1,074	+5% $1,048	+10% $1,022
Rent	-10% $914	-5% $994	+0% $1,074	+5% $1,153	+10% $1,233
Rate	-1.0pp $1,111	-0.5pp $1,093	base $1,074	+0.5pp $1,054	+1.0pp $1,034

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,014
Total (2 units)			$2,015

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 50 DOM
17. 2026-04-06
    listed $75,000 Active 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    This is a handyman special home, but with solid bones. Currently set up as a duplex, but could easily be made into a single family home. Nice rural setting, with all other houses nearby being nice. Has a 2 car garage. Great location with all neighbors having nice upkept homes.

18. 2025-01-30
    soldstatus $61,250
19. 2008-12-23
    soldstatus $117,000
20. 2002-06-20
    soldstatus $76,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,934
• − Management: −$1,934
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $12,428
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,983
• After-tax cash flow: $9,900/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcgraw Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3618840
• Math proficiency: 57% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $51,404
• Composite: 50.37/100
• National rank: #1875
• State rank: #252 of 590 in NY

Livability — McGraw

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #411
• US rank: #7091

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,221

Population outlook (Cortland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,543 people
• By 2030: 46,107 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 43,122 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 40,216 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 34,717 · -27.0%
• By 2100: 28,953 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cortland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 46.8% · R 53.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: 10.0pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: R+6.7 2012: D+8.8 2008: D+10.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.86%
• Current HPI: 305.3272
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-1.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $75,000 Fizber.com
• 2025-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $61,250 Public Records
• 2008-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $117,000 Public Records
• 2002-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,901 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.