20 Frasier Ln Unit D1 · Ludowici, GA 31316

$155,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 852 sqft · SingleFamily · 57 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $182/sqft · 29% above area Est $121k · 29% over $125/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Stillwater Commons: Ludowici's Premier Gated Community – Now Pre-Selling! Experience modern, low-maintenance living in this brand-new gated development. Featuring a blend of 1 and 2-story townhomes, residents will enjoy an upcoming dog park and playground. Building A offers 1-story units with 2 Bedrooms, 1 Bathroom, and 852 sq. ft. (79.15 sqm). Inside, you'll find a sleek kitchen with crisp white cabinetry and stainless steel appliances, complemented by durable LVP flooring (no carpet) throughout. Each home includes a private fenced-in yard and 2 designated parking spaces. The $125/month HOA covers lawn maintenance, trash, and roof care, and the builder provides a 2-10 Home Warranty.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Dog park
• Playground

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• DOG PARK
• PLAYGROUND
• PRIVATE FENCED-IN YARD
• DESIGNATED PARKING SPACES
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Stillwater Commons subdivision
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $125 monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Under construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Privacy fencing; Other lot features; Other road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric water heater; No fireplace; 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($275/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 5.4% in Ludowici — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#74 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smiley Elementary School (1,258 students, 67% FRL); Long County Middle School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 945 students, 69% FRL); Long County High School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 1,209 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 412 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.63%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $120,537
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: 28.59%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $5,664
• Equity at exit: $54,197

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $37,820
• Equity at exit: $73,025

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31316

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 412
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,543 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,325/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,514

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $130	-5% $76	+0% $23	+5% $-31	+10% $-84
Rent	-10% $-99	-5% $-38	+0% $23	+5% $84	+10% $145
Rate	-1.0pp $101	-0.5pp $62	base $23	+0.5pp $-17	+1.0pp $-58

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34 Pine St Unit C C Ludowici, GA	2.0	1.0	990	$1,395	$1.41	45d	1	0.87mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashsecurity

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $155,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $155,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $155,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 36 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 35 DOM
19. 2026-04-25
    listed $155,000 Active 887-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,518
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,325
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,481
• − Management: −$1,481
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$2,236
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$537
• After-tax cash flow: $812/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand-new gated community offers modern, low-maintenance living with a sleek kitchen, new exterior, and minimal maintenance needs. Upgrades in landscaping and amenities would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and common area improvements — Enhances curb appeal and community feel.
• Both Addition of a dog park and playground — Attracts families and enhances community living experience.
• Resale Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value.
• Resale Painting interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Rental Landscaping and common area improvements — Enhances curb appeal and community feel, attracting tenants.
• Rental Addition of a dog park and playground — Attracts families and enhances community living experience, attracting tenants with pet-friendly amenities.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and common area improvements — Enhances curb appeal and community feel. ↑
• Both Addition of a dog park and playground — Attracts families and enhances community living experience. ↑
• Resale Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value. ↑
• Resale Painting interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Rental Landscaping and common area improvements — Enhances curb appeal and community feel, attracting tenants. ↑
• Rental Addition of a dog park and playground — Attracts families and enhances community living experience, attracting tenants with pet-friendly amenities. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

Livability — Ludowici

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #6449

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ludowici, GA
• County: Long County · 13,812 people
• City population: 13,812
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 13,812
• Household income: $74,766
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 109.0

Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Current HPI: 195.2978
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Listed $155,000 HABR