533 Kirkpatrick Ave · Hodgenville, KY 42748

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · Other public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1955 8,276 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ATTENTION INVESTORS! This home is for you with "plenty of meat still left on the bone!" Looking for a great rental property, then check out this three bedroom, two bath home with a nice back yard, metal roof, and conveniently located minutes to Elizabethtown or Blue Oval SK. There is an unfinished basement/ cellar too. HVAC is only 4 years old. So much square footage and so much potential for this great money making home. Property is being sold AS IS, WHERE IS. Bring your cash or conventional loan offers.

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Built 1955
• Listed 52 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Block foundation; Built with typical residential construction
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $109 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.1% in Hodgenville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#259 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Larue County (rural): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #82 of 165 in KY (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 65 units permitted in Larue County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Larue County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $180k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,104 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.60%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-22,294
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-10,784
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42748

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,501 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $692/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,363

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $211	-5% $160	+0% $109	+5% $58	+10% $7
Rent	-10% $-9	-5% $50	+0% $109	+5% $168	+10% $228
Rate	-1.0pp $200	-0.5pp $155	base $109	+0.5pp $63	+1.0pp $15

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
327 S Greensburg St Hodgenville, KY	3.0	1.0	1392	$1,100	$0.79	3d	1	0.28mi
35 Despain Ct Hodgenville, KY	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,100	$1.91	21d	1	0.45mi
40 Despain Ct Unit 1 Hodgenville, KY	2.0	2.0	1146	$1,395	$1.22	45d	1	0.46mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $180,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $180,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $180,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $180,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $180,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-04-27
    listed $180,000 Active 828-char remark
17. 2023-11-07
    soldstatus $90,000 Closed 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    ATTENTION INVESTORS! This home is for you with "plenty of meat still left on the bone!" Looking for a great rental property, then check out this three bedroom, two bath home with a nice back yard, metal roof, and conveniently located minutes to Elizabethtown or Blue Oval SK. There is an unfinished basement/ cellar too. HVAC is only 4 years old. So much square footage and so much potential for this great money making home. Property is being sold AS IS, WHERE IS. Bring your cash or conventional loan offers.

18. 2023-11-07
    soldstatus $90,000

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    ATTENTION INVESTORS! This home is for you with "plenty of meat still left on the bone!" Looking for a great rental property, then check out this three bedroom, two bath home with a nice back yard, metal roof, and conveniently located minutes to Elizabethtown or Blue Oval SK. There is an unfinished basement/ cellar too. HVAC is only 4 years old. So much square footage and so much potential for this great money making home. Property is being sold AS IS, WHERE IS. Bring your cash or conventional loan offers.

19. 2023-10-25
    status Pending 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    ATTENTION INVESTORS! This home is for you with "plenty of meat still left on the bone!" Looking for a great rental property, then check out this three bedroom, two bath home with a nice back yard, metal roof, and conveniently located minutes to Elizabethtown or Blue Oval SK. There is an unfinished basement/ cellar too. HVAC is only 4 years old. So much square footage and so much potential for this great money making home. Property is being sold AS IS, WHERE IS. Bring your cash or conventional loan offers.

20. 2023-10-23
    listed $89,900 Active 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    ATTENTION INVESTORS! This home is for you with "plenty of meat still left on the bone!" Looking for a great rental property, then check out this three bedroom, two bath home with a nice back yard, metal roof, and conveniently located minutes to Elizabethtown or Blue Oval SK. There is an unfinished basement/ cellar too. HVAC is only 4 years old. So much square footage and so much potential for this great money making home. Property is being sold AS IS, WHERE IS. Bring your cash or conventional loan offers.

21. 2019-02-20
    soldstatus $70,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $692 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,548 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$856/yr (+$71/mo · 123.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,012
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$692
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,441
• − Management: −$1,441
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$1,781
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$427
• After-tax cash flow: $1,738/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Larue County
• NCES district ID: 2103180
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $39,784
• Composite: 27.66/100
• National rank: #6918
• State rank: #82 of 165 in KY

Livability — Hodgenville

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #259
• US rank: #12858

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hodgenville, KY
• Population (ZIP): 9,189

Population outlook (Larue County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,441 people
• By 2030: 14,453 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 14,258 · -1.3%
• By 2050: 13,687 · -5.2%
• By 2075: 12,271 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 10,639 · -26.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Serbian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Larue

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.1% · R 79.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: -36.3pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+57.3 2016: R+55.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+36.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.53%
• Current HPI: 241.8077
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+155.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $180,000 HKARMLS
• 2023-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2023-11-07 Sold (MLS) $90,000 HKARMLS
• 2023-10-25 Pending — HKARMLS
• 2023-10-23 Listed $89,900 HKARMLS
• 2019-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $70,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $692 · +274.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.