31506 Olivella Dr · Roman Forest, TX 77336

$170,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · SingleFamily · 8 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $192/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 37% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

The Ramsey Floor Plan - This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Intimate dining area
• Walk-in closet
• Single-story design

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY DESIGN
• PENINSULA-STYLE KITCHEN
• INTIMATE DINING AREA
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $170,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $197,800.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $171k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $171k).
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.0% in Roman Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#595 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Falcon Ridge El (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 689 students, 49% FRL); Huffman Middle (math 36% / reading 32%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Hargrave H S (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,125 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 587 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $170,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.39%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $197,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31506 Olivella Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,720 (0%)	1mo	$170,990	$99	99
31504 Pianella Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+2%)	2mo	$271,990	$155	90
31507 San Floro Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (+4%)	1mo	$304,990	$170	85
31418 Casacalenda Ln	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,656 (-4%)	1mo	$169,990	$103	80
905 Coperchiata Cir	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,656 (-4%)	1mo	$189,990	$115	77
914 Capracotta Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,655 (-4%)	1mo	$225,690	$136	76
912 Capracotta Dr	0.35mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (+2%)	1mo	$309,990	$177	73
929 Capracotta Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,656 (-4%)	1mo	$163,990	$99	72
31410 Pratola Serra Cir	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,656 (-4%)	1mo	$180,990	$109	72
913 Pertuso Ln	0.44mi	4/2.5	1,535 (-11%)	1mo	$234,990	$153	58
933 Pertuso Ln	0.49mi	4/2.5	1,535 (-11%)	1mo	$143,340	$93	56
939 Pertuso Ln	0.50mi	4/2.5	1,531 (-11%)	1mo	$165,790	$108	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-18,995
• Equity at exit: $29,493

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $693
• Equity at exit: $17,102

Cash invested: $55,384 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77336

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 587
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,230 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,037
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$247 /mo · $2,967/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,973

Max offer price $197,800

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $339	-5% $271	+0% $203	+5% $134	+10% $66
Rent	-10% $26	-5% $115	+0% $203	+5% $291	+10% $379
Rate	-1.0pp $302	-0.5pp $253	base $203	+0.5pp $151	+1.0pp $99

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,450
• Closing costs: $5,934
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31416 Pratola Serra Cir Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,675	$1.15	3d	1	0.46mi
934 Pertuso Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,800	$1.32	25d	1	0.53mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $192 · $2,304/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   price $170,990
3. 2026-04-10
   listed $175,990 Active
4. 2026-04-10
   historical
5. 2026-04-08
   price $175,990
6. 2026-03-25
   price $180,000
7. 2026-03-25
   listed $270,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,080
• − Property taxes: −$2,967
• − Insurance: −$989
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,141
• − Management: −$2,141
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$5,754
• Taxable loss: −$617
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$148
• After-tax cash flow: $2,580/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good balance of updates and maintenance, making it a solid investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve functionality and appeal
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures enhance the bathroom's appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve functionality and appeal ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures enhance the bathroom's appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Roman Forest

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #595
• US rank: #11338

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,342
• Household income: $96,404
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 377.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
• Current HPI: 472.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-36.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $170,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $175,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $175,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $270,990 HARMLS