614 Neff Hill Rd · Sidney, NY 13733

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2011 28 ac lot ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks

At the end of a dead-end road and down a private drive is a secluded getaway that could be yours. 27+ mostly wooded acres to explore, hunt, enjoy! 3BR 2BA ranch style home that has been so lightly used that it still feels new. Well & septic but no electric. Use generator hook up or go solar for off the grid living.

Key facts

• Off the grid living
• Secluded getaway
• Mostly wooded acres

Tags

• PRIVATE DRIVE
• SECLUDED GETAWAY
• MOSTLY WOODED ACRES
• OFF THE GRID LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-331 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $101k (36.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $101k (36.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 5.9% in Sidney — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bainbridge-Guilford Central School District (rural): math 40% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #418 of 590 in NY (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Greenlawn Elementary School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 277 students, 52% FRL); Bainbridge-Guilford High School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C, #887 of 1,100 statewide, top 82%, 362 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 151 units permitted in Chenango County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Chenango County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.

Recommended offer $101,481 (36.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.86%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $66,125
• Equity at exit: $144,051

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.72×
• Total profit: $211,490
• Equity at exit: $310,651

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13733

• Home prices YoY: 13.9%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,152 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$336 /mo · $4,032/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $-331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,571

Max offer price $101,481

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-240	-5% $-285	+0% $-331	+5% $-376	+10% $-421
Rent	-10% $-422	-5% $-376	+0% $-331	+5% $-285	+10% $-240
Rate	-1.0pp $-250	-0.5pp $-290	base $-331	+0.5pp $-372	+1.0pp $-414

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $159,900 Active 1 DOM
2. 2023-05-05
   status Pending
3. 2023-05-05
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show
4. 2023-05-01
   historical
5. 2022-06-07
   listed $149,900 Active
6. 2022-06-04
   listed $149,900 Active
7. 2021-11-01
   listed $164,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,032 · $336/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,032 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,829
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$4,032
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,106
• − Management: −$1,106
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$6,823
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,638
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bainbridge-Guilford Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603810
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $48,248
• Composite: 41.31/100
• National rank: #3511
• State rank: #418 of 590 in NY

Livability — Sidney

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #8397

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,265

Population outlook (Chenango County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,669 people
• By 2030: 43,484 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 38,774 · -15.1%
• By 2050: 34,000 · -25.6%
• By 2075: 24,637 · -46.1%
• By 2100: 16,452 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Romanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chenango

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.2) · D 36.4% · R 63.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -27.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.2 2020: R+23.3 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+3.4 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.93%
• Current HPI: 287.0519
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2023-05-05 Pending — GBAOR
• 2023-05-05 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2023-05-01 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2022-06-07 Listed $149,900 GBAOR
• 2022-06-04 Listed $149,900 UNYREIS
• 2021-11-01 Listed $164,900 GBAOR

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,032 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.