604 S Barclay St · Bay City, MI 48706

$119,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,003 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1954 5,662 sqft lot $120/sqft · 17% above area Est $103k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This well maintained single story home offers a comfortable and practical layout with three inviting bedrooms with hardwood floors and a full bathroom. The interior features a welcoming living space, complemented by a functional kitchen with ample cabinet storage and room for everyday dining. Each bedroom provides a cozy retreat with good natural light and closet space, while the overall home reflects consistent care and upkeep throughout. Outside, the property offers a manageable yard, making it ideal for relaxing, entertaining, or easy maintenance.

Key facts

• 5,662 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1954

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 covered parking space; Has garage/carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer
• Home design: Residential property; One-story structure; Built in 1954; Entry level and living areas on first floor
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Basement foundation; Year built 1954
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on first floor, approximately 14 x 11, vinyl flooring
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 on first floor, approximately 14 x 11, wood floors; Bedroom 2 on first floor, approximately 11 x 11, wood floors; Bedroom 3 on first floor, approximately 9 wide, wood floors
• Flooring: Wood flooring in bedrooms; Vinyl flooring in kitchen and living room
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (first floor), approx. 9 x 5
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas fuel
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Basement present
• Laundry & utility: Basement (utility/laundry potential)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $444 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 5.6% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 248 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $118,101 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.87%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $102,772
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: 16.67%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
604 S Barclay St	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,003 (0%)	1mo	$127,000	$127	94
313 S Alp St	0.27mi	2/2.0	981 (-2%)	1mo	$165,000	$168	79
613 S Wenona Ave	0.48mi	2/1.0	992 (-1%)	0mo	$92,000	$93	76
1507 W White St	0.33mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+5%)	0mo	$175,000	$166	70
304 S Erie St	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,011 (+1%)	3mo	$90,000	$89	69
214 S Warner St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,042 (+4%)	4mo	$113,000	$108	65
707 Raymond St	0.29mi	2/1.5	888 (-12%)	1mo	$150,000	$169	64
608 S Williams St	0.55mi	2/1.0	943 (-6%)	5mo	$47,000	$50	60
3118 E Fisher Rd	0.69mi	2/1.5	1,056 (+5%)	2mo	$155,000	$147	55
1303 S Warner St	0.64mi	2/1.0	922 (-8%)	5mo	$74,500	$81	53
304 Main St	0.65mi	2/1.0	891 (-11%)	2mo	$135,250	$152	50
201 N Warner St	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	902 (-10%)	4mo	$95,000	$105	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $8,898
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $44,357
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48706

• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,658 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,245/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $444

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,096

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $512	-5% $478	+0% $444	+5% $410	+10% $376
Rent	-10% $313	-5% $379	+0% $444	+5% $510	+10% $575
Rate	-1.0pp $504	-0.5pp $475	base $444	+0.5pp $413	+1.0pp $381

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
605 E Jane St Bay City, MI	1.0	1.0	754	$1,650	$2.19	44d	1	0.82mi
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-02
   historical Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 556-char remark
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $119,900 Active 556-char remark
3. 2013-07-24
   historical
4. 2013-07-09
   listed $74,900
5. 2005-12-30
   historical
6. 2005-05-27
   listed $104,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,245 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,245 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,896
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$2,245
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,592
• − Management: −$1,592
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $3,664
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$879
• After-tax cash flow: $4,449/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 38,756

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.29%
• Current HPI: 203.6444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+21.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Sold (MLS) $127,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-22 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-02 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $119,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2013-07-24 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2013-07-09 Listed $74,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-12-30 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-05-27 Listed $104,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,245 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.