The Cascade (330) Plan · Waller, TX 77484

$255,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily · 209 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked at the rear of the home, the Cascade's private primary suite boasts dual sinks and a large walk-in closet for ample storage. In the kitchen, a large island and spacious pantry maximize convenience.

Key facts

• Spacious pantry
• Large island
• Large walk-in closet

Tags

• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• LARGE ISLAND
• SPACIOUS PANTRY

🏗️ New construction. The $255,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $270,840.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $256k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-253 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.3% in Waller — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,003 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1496 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,950 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.00%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,840
• List price: $255,990
• Delta: -5.48%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29102 Samuel Gardens Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-1%)	0mo	$257,590	$181	92
29223 Farmhouse Estates Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,449 (+1%)	1mo	$227,940	$157	87
29226 Farmhouse Estates Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,428 (-1%)	1mo	$244,940	$172	86
29211 Farmhouse Estates Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,414 (-2%)	1mo	$234,090	$166	86
29127 Dandelion Sky Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-4%)	0mo	$234,900	$169	86
29242 Farmhouse Estates Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-1%)	0mo	$253,940	$178	85
29207 Dandelion Sky Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (+10%)	0mo	$244,900	$155	69
29238 Farmhouse Estates Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,565 (+9%)	0mo	$238,040	$152	69
16830 Spotted Oak Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+2%)	0mo	$238,990	$162	61
16850 Spotted Oak Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+2%)	0mo	$232,991	$158	61
16819 Spotted Oak Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,325 (-8%)	1mo	$203,591	$154	53
16822 Spotted Oak Dr	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,644 (+14%)	0mo	$251,990	$153	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-65,952
• Equity at exit: $40,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-101,233
• Equity at exit: $23,417

Cash invested: $75,835 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 42 active · 40 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.2 mo (31%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $262,490 ($169/sqft)
• Median days on market: 176 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +11.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77484

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 1496
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,050 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$339 /mo · $4,063/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,369

Max offer price $234,287

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-65	-5% $-159	+0% $-253	+5% $-346	+10% $-440
Rent	-10% $-415	-5% $-334	+0% $-253	+5% $-172	+10% $-91
Rate	-1.0pp $-116	-0.5pp $-184	base $-253	+0.5pp $-323	+1.0pp $-394

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,710
• Closing costs: $8,125
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16850 Spotted Oak Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,990	$1.35	4d	1	0.72mi
16315 Mesquite Field Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	93d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $255,990 Active 209 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $255,990 Active 207 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $255,990 Active 206 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $255,990 Active 205 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $255,990 Active 204 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $255,990 Active 201 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $255,990 Active 199 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $255,990 Active 198 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $255,990 Active 196 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $255,990 Active 194 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $255,990 Active 193 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $255,990 Active 192 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $255,990 Active 191 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $255,990 Active 190 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $255,990 Active 187 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $255,990 Active 186 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $255,990 Active 185 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $255,990 Active 184 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $255,990 Active 183 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $255,990 Active 182 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $255,990 Active 181 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $255,990 Active 180 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $255,990 Active 179 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $255,990 Active 177 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $255,990 Active 176 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $255,990 Active 175 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $255,990 Active 174 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $255,990 Active 173 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $255,990 Active 172 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $255,990 Active 171 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $255,990 Active 170 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $255,990 Active 169 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $255,990 Active 168 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $255,990 Active 167 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $255,990 Active 166 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $255,990 Active 164 DOM
37. 2026-06-21
    days on market $255,990 Active 161 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $255,990 Active 158 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $255,990 Active 157 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $255,990 Active 156 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    pricedays on market $255,990 Active 155 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    days on market $227,940 Active 153 DOM
43. 2026-06-09
    days on market $227,940 Active 149 DOM
44. 2026-06-08
    days on market $227,940 Active 148 DOM
45. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $227,940 Active 147 DOM
46. 2026-06-04
    days on market $232,940 Active 144 DOM
47. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $232,940 Active 143 DOM
48. 2026-06-02
    days on market $230,940 Active 142 DOM
49. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,940 Active 141 DOM
50. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,940 Active 140 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,594
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,171
• − Property taxes: −$4,063
• − Insurance: −$1,354
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,968
• − Management: −$1,968
• − Depreciation: −$7,879
• Taxable loss: −$7,808
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,874
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,200–$21,600 screening

The home is in good condition with a cosmetic rehab level, ready for minor touch-ups to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Enhances interior appearance and value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 35/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Evelyn Turlington El D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Waller J H F TX #1,279/1,662 Nat'l #10,474/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Waller

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1003
• US rank: #17792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,348
• Household income: $81,250
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
• Current HPI: 397.85
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $230,940 Zillow
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $229,940 Zillow
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $252,940 Zillow
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $259,940 Zillow
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $255,940 Zillow
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $253,940 Zillow
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $252,940 Zillow
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $257,940 Zillow
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $267,940 Zillow
• 2026-01-11 Listed $257,990 Zillow