1038 Garnet Rain Dr · Rosenberg, TX 77417

$254,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,593 sqft · Land · 17 Days on market

Built 2026 $88/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

ESTIMATED COMPLETION DATE MAY 2026. The Diana floorplan is a spacious 1,593 sq ft single-story home featuring an inviting front porch that leads into a foyer and a centrally located family room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen, complete with a pantry, center island, and ample counter space. The thoughtfully layout includes 3 bedrooms, with Bedroom 1 offering a private retreat complete with a large walk-in closet and an adjoining bath with dual sinks. Bedrooms 2 and 3 are positioned near the second full bath for added convenience. A dedicated utility room is conveniently located near the garage entry, while a covered patio at the rear of the home provides the perfect space for outdoor relaxation. Located in Emberly, a master-planned community featuring The Haven Amenity Village, that includes a clubhouse with fitness center, outdoor courtyard, resort-style pool, water park with splash pad, event lawn, playground, pickleball court, sand volleyball court, dog park, hike/bike trails, and more!

Key facts

• Open dining area
• Front porch
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• FAMILY ROOM
• OPEN DINING AREA
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association fee is paid annually
• HOA & community: Emberly Homeowner Association; Community amenities: clubhouse, dog park, fitness center, playground, pickleball, pool; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (2026); Slab foundation; Brick and stone exterior; Composition roof
• Construction: Built by D.R. Horton; New construction; Brick and stone construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Private yard; Back yard fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Garbage disposal; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — 16x10; Bedroom (First floor) — 10x11; Bedroom (First floor) — 10x11
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Entrance foyer; Solid surface counters; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $254,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $303,089.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-492/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $85k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,500 (6.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.58%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,089
• List price: $254,990
• Delta: -12.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $52,730
• Equity at exit: $156,393

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $169,110
• Equity at exit: $257,991

Cash invested: $84,865 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,375 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,589
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,363/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$88
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,427

Max offer price $295,842

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $131	-5% $45	+0% $-41	+5% $-127	+10% $-213
Rent	-10% $-229	-5% $-135	+0% $-41	+5% $53	+10% $147
Rate	-1.0pp $112	-0.5pp $36	base $-41	+0.5pp $-120	+1.0pp $-199

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,772
• Closing costs: $9,093
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10730 Sky Creek Ln Beasley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1869	$2,375	$1.27	0d	1	0.89mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $88 · $1,056/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $254,990 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,990 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,990 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,990 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,990 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,990 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,990 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $254,990 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on marketlisting id $254,990 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $264,990 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $264,990 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,990 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $264,990 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $264,990 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $279,990 1028-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1028 chars)

    ESTIMATED COMPLETION DATE MAY 2026. The Diana floorplan is a spacious 1,593 sq ft single-story home featuring an inviting front porch that leads into a foyer and a centrally located family room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen, complete with a pantry, center island, and ample counter space. The thoughtfully layout includes 3 bedrooms, with Bedroom 1 offering a private retreat complete with a large walk-in closet and an adjoining bath with dual sinks. Bedrooms 2 and 3 are positioned near the second full bath for added convenience. A dedicated utility room is conveniently located near the garage entry, while a covered patio at the rear of the home provides the perfect space for outdoor relaxation. Located in Emberly, a master-planned community featuring The Haven Amenity Village, that includes a clubhouse with fitness center, outdoor courtyard, resort-style pool, water park with splash pad, event lawn, playground, pickleball court, sand volleyball court, dog park, hike/bike trails, and more!

16. 2026-05-02
    price $309,990 1028-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1028 chars)

    ESTIMATED COMPLETION DATE MAY 2026. The Diana floorplan is a spacious 1,593 sq ft single-story home featuring an inviting front porch that leads into a foyer and a centrally located family room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen, complete with a pantry, center island, and ample counter space. The thoughtfully layout includes 3 bedrooms, with Bedroom 1 offering a private retreat complete with a large walk-in closet and an adjoining bath with dual sinks. Bedrooms 2 and 3 are positioned near the second full bath for added convenience. A dedicated utility room is conveniently located near the garage entry, while a covered patio at the rear of the home provides the perfect space for outdoor relaxation. Located in Emberly, a master-planned community featuring The Haven Amenity Village, that includes a clubhouse with fitness center, outdoor courtyard, resort-style pool, water park with splash pad, event lawn, playground, pickleball court, sand volleyball court, dog park, hike/bike trails, and more!

17. 2026-03-25
    price $299,990 1028-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1028 chars)

    ESTIMATED COMPLETION DATE MAY 2026. The Diana floorplan is a spacious 1,593 sq ft single-story home featuring an inviting front porch that leads into a foyer and a centrally located family room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen, complete with a pantry, center island, and ample counter space. The thoughtfully layout includes 3 bedrooms, with Bedroom 1 offering a private retreat complete with a large walk-in closet and an adjoining bath with dual sinks. Bedrooms 2 and 3 are positioned near the second full bath for added convenience. A dedicated utility room is conveniently located near the garage entry, while a covered patio at the rear of the home provides the perfect space for outdoor relaxation. Located in Emberly, a master-planned community featuring The Haven Amenity Village, that includes a clubhouse with fitness center, outdoor courtyard, resort-style pool, water park with splash pad, event lawn, playground, pickleball court, sand volleyball court, dog park, hike/bike trails, and more!

18. 2026-03-18
    price $304,990 1028-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1028 chars)

    ESTIMATED COMPLETION DATE MAY 2026. The Diana floorplan is a spacious 1,593 sq ft single-story home featuring an inviting front porch that leads into a foyer and a centrally located family room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen, complete with a pantry, center island, and ample counter space. The thoughtfully layout includes 3 bedrooms, with Bedroom 1 offering a private retreat complete with a large walk-in closet and an adjoining bath with dual sinks. Bedrooms 2 and 3 are positioned near the second full bath for added convenience. A dedicated utility room is conveniently located near the garage entry, while a covered patio at the rear of the home provides the perfect space for outdoor relaxation. Located in Emberly, a master-planned community featuring The Haven Amenity Village, that includes a clubhouse with fitness center, outdoor courtyard, resort-style pool, water park with splash pad, event lawn, playground, pickleball court, sand volleyball court, dog park, hike/bike trails, and more!

19. 2026-03-12
    listed $299,990 Active 1028-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1028 chars)

    ESTIMATED COMPLETION DATE MAY 2026. The Diana floorplan is a spacious 1,593 sq ft single-story home featuring an inviting front porch that leads into a foyer and a centrally located family room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen, complete with a pantry, center island, and ample counter space. The thoughtfully layout includes 3 bedrooms, with Bedroom 1 offering a private retreat complete with a large walk-in closet and an adjoining bath with dual sinks. Bedrooms 2 and 3 are positioned near the second full bath for added convenience. A dedicated utility room is conveniently located near the garage entry, while a covered patio at the rear of the home provides the perfect space for outdoor relaxation. Located in Emberly, a master-planned community featuring The Haven Amenity Village, that includes a clubhouse with fitness center, outdoor courtyard, resort-style pool, water park with splash pad, event lawn, playground, pickleball court, sand volleyball court, dog park, hike/bike trails, and more!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,363 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,666 · $389/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,304/yr (+$275/mo · 242.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 36% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,978
• − Property taxes: −$1,363
• − Insurance: −$1,515
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,280
• − Management: −$2,280
• − HOA: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$8,817
• Taxable loss: −$5,789
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,389
• After-tax cash flow: $897/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 115,151
• Population (ZIP): 3,232

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $254,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $256,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $254,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $264,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Listed $294,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $264,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $279,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $309,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $299,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $304,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-12 Listed $299,990 Zillow