11 Juan Carlos Dr · Rancho Mirage, CA 92270

$439,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,270 sqft · Condo public records · 181 Days on market

Built 1978 $755/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced reduced!! This property is the popular 20 Plan with a West facing patio on the fifth hole of the North course. The magnificent expansive views are highlighted by the San Jacinto and Santa Rosa mountains. You will enjoy the desert sunsets with its colorful skies after enjoying the warm afternoons on the golf course patio. The private courtyard entry opens into a beautiful stone covered patio leading to the custom entry door. Enter into the open dining and living space looking out to the golf course and mountain views. The two bedrooms each have ensuite baths and outside access to the patios. One of the baths is equipped with a custom steam system. The kitchen looks out to the courtyard entry and enjoys the morning sunshine. Rancho Las Palmas is centrally located in the Coachella Vally and close to the mountains with less wind exposure. Tennis, Pickleball and Golf are all available in the community, along with 26 swimming pools and spas. The Shops on El Paseo, the McCallum Theater, and many of the best restaurants are all close by.

Key facts

• Expansive views
• West facing patio
• Santa rosa mountains

Tags

• WEST FACING PATIO
• FIFTH HOLE OF THE NORTH COURSE
• EXPANSIVE VIEWS
• SAN JACINTO MOUNTAINS
• SANTA ROSA MOUNTAINS
• PRIVATE COURTYARD ENTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $439k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $642 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $439k).
• Recommended offer: $386k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.0% in Rancho Mirage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,065 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Desert Sands Unified (suburban): math 31% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #199 of 517 in CA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 532 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,214/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($107k/yr) (locally 498% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($386k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $439k implies a 292% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $386,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.27%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-26,080
• Equity at exit: $65,456

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $47,223
• Equity at exit: $37,957

Cash invested: $122,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92270

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 532
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,214 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,302
• Tax from tax record: −$237 /mo · $2,839/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$755
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,095
• Net cashflow: $642

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,401

Max offer price $439,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $891	-5% $766	+0% $642	+5% $518	+10% $394
Rent	-10% $230	-5% $436	+0% $642	+5% $848	+10% $1,054
Rate	-1.0pp $863	-0.5pp $754	base $642	+0.5pp $528	+1.0pp $413

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,750
• Closing costs: $13,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
68 El Toro Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1381	$4,000	$2.90	25d	1	0.06mi
21 Don Quixote Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1270	$4,000	$3.15	25d	1	0.10mi
36 El Toro Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1270	$4,000	$3.15	25d	1	0.13mi
223 Serena Dr Palm Desert, CA	3.0	2.0	1584	$4,800	$3.03	19d	1	0.18mi
223 Serena Dr Palm Desert, CA	3.0	2.0	1584	$4,800	$3.03	44d	1	0.18mi
221 Serena Dr Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1347	$5,500	$4.08	44d	1	0.18mi
242 Serena Dr Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1347	$5,300	$3.93	44d	1	0.19mi
291 Serena Dr Palm Desert, CA	2.0	1.5	1303	$5,300	$4.07	44d	1	0.19mi
293 Serena Dr Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1670	$5,500	$3.29	44d	1	0.19mi
207 Serena Dr Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1584	$5,900	$3.72	44d	1	0.21mi
203 Serena Dr Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1303	$3,000	$2.30	4d	1	0.21mi
261 Santa Barbara Cir Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1656	$5,800	$3.50	44d	1	0.25mi
235 Santa Barbara Cir Palm Desert, CA	3.0	3.0	1800	$7,500	$4.17	44d	1	0.26mi
110 Giralda Cir Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1584	$7,000	$4.42	44d	1	0.28mi
254 Santa Barbara Cir Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1656	$8,000	$4.83	44d	1	0.28mi
16 Tortosa Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	3.0	2.0	1720	$7,495	$4.36	44d	1	0.28mi
246 Santa Barbara Cir Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1656	$9,000	$5.43	44d	1	0.29mi
240 Santa Barbara Cir Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1457	$6,000	$4.12	25d	1	0.29mi
114 Giralda Cir Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1303	$5,500	$4.22	44d	1	0.29mi
45 Cueta Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1270	$3,000	$2.36	44d	1	0.29mi
278 San Vicente Cir Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1656	$5,200	$3.14	44d	1	0.30mi
294 San Vicente Cir Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1584	$5,300	$3.35	44d	1	0.32mi
134 Las Lomas Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1584	$7,500	$4.73	44d	1	0.35mi
281 Tolosa Cir Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1303	$5,500	$4.22	44d	1	0.36mi
138 Gran Via Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1457	$5,500	$3.77	44d	1	0.36mi
144 Las Lomas Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1584	$6,600	$4.17	0d	1	0.38mi
320 Paseo Primavera Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1303	$3,000	$2.30	44d	1	0.38mi
280 Tolosa Cir Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1347	$6,000	$4.45	25d	1	0.39mi
280 Tolosa Cir Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1347	$6,000	$4.45	44d	1	0.39mi
214 La Paz Way Palm Desert, CA	2.0	1.5	1670	$6,700	$4.01	44d	1	0.39mi
101 Juan Cir Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1600	$6,500	$4.06	44d	1	0.40mi
20 San Sebastian Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1380	$2,950	$2.14	44d	1	0.42mi
27 Torremolinos Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	3.0	1.5	1621	$3,300	$2.04	44d	1	0.45mi
117 Juan Cir Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1584	$6,800	$4.29	44d	1	0.45mi
172 Gran Via Palm Desert, CA	2.0	1.5	1584	$7,000	$4.42	44d	1	0.45mi
347 Gran Via Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1303	$5,500	$4.22	44d	1	0.46mi
186 Madrid Ave Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1800	$7,100	$3.94	44d	1	0.46mi
345 Gran Via Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1584	$5,500	$3.47	44d	1	0.46mi
389 Gran Via Palm Desert, CA	3.0	2.0	1670	$3,750	$2.25	25d	1	0.46mi
191 Madrid Ave Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1800	$5,500	$3.06	44d	1	0.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $755 · $9,060/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $439,000 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $439,000 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $439,000 Active 179 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $439,000 Active 178 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $439,000 Active 177 DOM
6. 2026-03-04
   price $439,000 1052-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1052 chars)

   Priced reduced!! This property is the popular 20 Plan with a West facing patio on the fifth hole of the North course. The magnificent expansive views are highlighted by the San Jacinto and Santa Rosa mountains. You will enjoy the desert sunsets with its colorful skies after enjoying the warm afternoons on the golf course patio. The private courtyard entry opens into a beautiful stone covered patio leading to the custom entry door. Enter into the open dining and living space looking out to the golf course and mountain views. The two bedrooms each have ensuite baths and outside access to the patios. One of the baths is equipped with a custom steam system. The kitchen looks out to the courtyard entry and enjoys the morning sunshine. Rancho Las Palmas is centrally located in the Coachella Vally and close to the mountains with less wind exposure. Tennis, Pickleball and Golf are all available in the community, along with 26 swimming pools and spas. The Shops on El Paseo, the McCallum Theater, and many of the best restaurants are all close by.

7. 2025-12-05
   listed $459,000 Active 1052-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1052 chars)

   Priced reduced!! This property is the popular 20 Plan with a West facing patio on the fifth hole of the North course. The magnificent expansive views are highlighted by the San Jacinto and Santa Rosa mountains. You will enjoy the desert sunsets with its colorful skies after enjoying the warm afternoons on the golf course patio. The private courtyard entry opens into a beautiful stone covered patio leading to the custom entry door. Enter into the open dining and living space looking out to the golf course and mountain views. The two bedrooms each have ensuite baths and outside access to the patios. One of the baths is equipped with a custom steam system. The kitchen looks out to the courtyard entry and enjoys the morning sunshine. Rancho Las Palmas is centrally located in the Coachella Vally and close to the mountains with less wind exposure. Tennis, Pickleball and Golf are all available in the community, along with 26 swimming pools and spas. The Shops on El Paseo, the McCallum Theater, and many of the best restaurants are all close by.

8. 1996-03-26
   soldstatus $112,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,839 · $237/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,336 · $278/mo
• Expected delta: +$497/yr (+$41/mo · 17.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $62,565
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,591
• − Property taxes: −$2,839
• − Insurance: −$2,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,005
• − Management: −$5,005
• − HOA: −$9,060
• − Depreciation: −$12,771
• Taxable income: $1,099
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$264
• After-tax cash flow: $7,443/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desert Sands Unified
• NCES district ID: 0611110
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,957
• Composite: 37.77/100
• National rank: #4346
• State rank: #199 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rancho Mirage

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1065
• US rank: #25255

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Mirage, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 17,563
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,563
• Household income: $107,364
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 498.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -210.99%
• Current HPI: 282.2957
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.72%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+292.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $439,000 GPSMLS
• 2025-12-05 Listed $459,000 GPSMLS
• 1996-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,839 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.