320 Toledo Bch · South Toledo Bend, TX 75948

$55,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1999 0.34 ac lot ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great Fishing Camp Find! Located in Toledo Beach Subdivision (South End of Lake) this 3B/2B manufactured home is on a spacious lot with plenty of parking space, partially fenced with a large garden master tub in the masterbath and walk in pantry. The community boat ramp and playground is just a few blocks down on the same street. This is an affordable option for a lake house or a rental property!

Key facts

• Community boat ramp
• Large garden
• Walk in pantry

Tags

• TOLEDO BEACH SUBDIVISION
• COMMUNITY BOAT RAMP
• LARGE GARDEN
• WALK IN PANTRY
• PLAYGROUND

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Home design: Mobile home (residential); Located in the Toledo Beach #1 subdivision
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Lot of approximately 0.34 acre

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating
• Interior features: Washer and dryer included; Carpet and vinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $338 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($918 rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 2.4% in South Toledo Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,431 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, housing D, schools F.
• Hemphill ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 235 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sabine County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $54,175 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.37%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $12,656
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.52×
• Total profit: $38,842
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75948

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $918 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $906/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $490

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $55,000 Pending 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $55,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $55,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   price $55,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 399-char remark
6. 2026-03-10
   listed $75,000 Active 399-char remark
7. 2026-03-10
   soldstatus
8. 2023-11-10
   historical
9. 2023-09-03
   listed
10. 2023-08-30
    historical
11. 2021-04-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $906 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,006 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: +$101/yr (+$8/mo · 11.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,016
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$906
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$881
• − Management: −$881
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $3,391
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$814
• After-tax cash flow: $3,246/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemphill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822890
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,330
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5821
• State rank: #466 of 826 in TX

Livability — South Toledo Bend

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #1431
• US rank: #24460

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing D Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,218

Population outlook (Sabine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,354 people
• By 2030: 8,806 · -5.9%
• By 2040: 7,871 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 7,224 · -22.8%
• By 2075: 6,351 · -32.1%
• By 2100: 5,465 · -41.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Vietnamese 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sabine

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+78.5) · D 10.6% · R 89.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -54.8pp · 2024: -78.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+78.5 2020: R+75.0 2016: R+72.8 2012: R+63.9 2008: R+54.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.26%
• Current HPI: 159.0093
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-26.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Pending — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $55,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-05-19 Relisted — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-05-07 Pending — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-03-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-03-10 Listed $75,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2023-11-10 Rental Removed — BUILDIUM
• 2023-09-03 Listed for Rent — BUILDIUM
• 2023-08-30 Rental Removed — BUILDIUM
• 2021-04-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $906 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.