1615 Athena Ln · Forney, TX 75126

$329,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,015 sqft · SingleFamily · 32 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 5,802 sqft lot 2-car garage $163/sqft · 24% below area Est $431k · 24% under $133/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * 2.99% FIXED RATE for a 30-Year Mortgage (3.75% APR) on Select Homes for a Limited Time Only, Plus $5,000 in Closing Costs Through the End of the Month When Using MCI Mortgage * * Brand New Construction by Megatel Homes! Lagoon life is coming to Forney ISD! Discover Bellagio, a master-planned community offering highly rated schools, scenic parks, and a welcoming, small-town atmosphere known for its rich history as the Antique Capital of Texas. This community features resort-style amenities including a lagoon, fitness and wellness spaces, a full-service restaurant and bar, and entertainment options for both adults and kids. Move In Ready & Never Occupied!

Key facts

• Scenic parks
• 5,802 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• BRAND NEW CONSTRUCTION
• MASTER-PLANNED COMMUNITY
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• SCENIC PARKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $329k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-259 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.2% in Forney — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rhea Int (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 833 students, 26% FRL); Warren Middle (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 903 students, 26% FRL); Forney H S (math 64% / reading 58%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,272 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 26% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 3067 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 75d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $271,857 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.37%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $431,142
• List price: $329,000
• Delta: -23.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4014 Poplar Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0	2,006 (-0%)	4mo	$299,900	$150	75
4111 Beamer Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0	2,038 (+1%)	5mo	$315,000	$155	71
4113 Plateau Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0	2,065 (+2%)	6mo	$354,540	$172	65
4168 Plateau Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,014 (-0%)	7mo	$362,750	$180	61
4004 Clearline Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,832 (-9%)	2mo	$299,990	$164	59
4165 Waldron Trl	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,935 (-4%)	0mo	$376,490	$195	55
4117 Plateau Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,832 (-9%)	7mo	$329,540	$180	53
4104 Waldron Trl	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,315 (+15%)	3mo	$355,000	$153	53
4172 Plateau Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,065 (+2%)	7mo	$362,490	$176	52
4008 Dusk Dr	0.55mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,135 (+6%)	4mo	$319,900	$150	52
4174 Plateau Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,935 (-4%)	7mo	$340,490	$176	49
4161 Waldron Trl	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,832 (-9%)	2mo	$336,490	$184	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-73,939
• Equity at exit: $49,055

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-102,039
• Equity at exit: $28,446

Cash invested: $92,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 42 active · 38 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.3 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $357,000 ($172/sqft)
• Median days on market: 93 d
• This list price: 26% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +24.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 3067
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,719 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$411 /mo · $4,935/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$133
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $-259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,046

Max offer price $291,526

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-32	-5% $-145	+0% $-259	+5% $-373	+10% $-486
Rent	-10% $-474	-5% $-366	+0% $-259	+5% $-152	+10% $-44
Rate	-1.0pp $-93	-0.5pp $-175	base $-259	+0.5pp $-344	+1.0pp $-431

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,250
• Closing costs: $9,870
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1805 Acosta Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2728	$2,995	$1.10	40d	1	0.08mi
1328 Middlebrooks Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2534	$2,600	$1.03	24d	1	0.12mi
2503 Blue Oasis Ct Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2127	$2,399	$1.13	59d	1	0.14mi
1308 Middlebrooks Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2231	$2,650	$1.19	140d	1	0.16mi
2302 Doe Branch Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2457	$2,750	$1.12	117d	1	0.22mi
2140 Florence Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2032	$2,600	$1.28	139d	1	0.25mi
4005 Waterford Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1852	$2,350	$1.27	139d	1	0.41mi
1232 Cirrus Ct Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2468	$2,899	$1.17	28d	1	0.47mi
4008 Dusk Dr Forney, TX	5.0	2.0	2138	$3,000	$1.40	74d	1	0.54mi
4000 Dusk Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2140	$2,599	$1.21	84d	1	0.55mi
4306 Paxton Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1837	$2,600	$1.42	139d	1	0.67mi
1052 Lufkin Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2600	$2,800	$1.08	7d	1	0.68mi
4162 Rim Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1916	$2,350	$1.23	85d	1	0.70mi
4170 Plateau Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$3,573	$1.70	139d	1	0.71mi
4320 Shadow Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,450	$1.34	20d	1	0.72mi
4178 Plateau Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1832	$3,573	$1.95	140d	1	0.75mi
4175 Beamer Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,500	$1.37	74d	1	0.76mi
4186 Rim Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2060	$2,750	$1.33	139d	1	0.81mi
4238 Long Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2312	$2,900	$1.25	12d	1	0.84mi
4198 Plateau Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1832	$3,573	$1.95	139d	1	0.85mi
114 Mandarin St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1871	$2,400	$1.28	84d	1	0.91mi
1515 Arabella Ave Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1636	$2,200	$1.34	69d	1	0.91mi
335 Chapel Hill Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2520	$3,000	$1.19	26d	1	0.92mi
107 Huckleberry Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2186	$2,700	$1.24	51d	1	0.92mi
2320 Willard Way Forney, TX	5.0	4.0	2408	$3,950	$1.64	139d	1	0.93mi
1450 Arabella Ave Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1636	$2,250	$1.38	108d	1	0.94mi
112 Huckleberry Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1882	$2,425	$1.29	6d	1	0.94mi
2305 Willard Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2108	$1,795	$0.85	1d	1	0.96mi
2495 Monty St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,300	$1.25	11d	1	0.99mi
2760 Tanner St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1615	$2,200	$1.36	68d	1	1.02mi
2795 Tanner St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2113	$2,200	$1.04	35d	1	1.03mi
2850 Dusty Rd Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2115	$2,300	$1.09	51d	1	1.06mi
721 Truchas Ave Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2314	$700	$0.30	20d	1	1.07mi
1160 Wentworth Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1815	$2,189	$1.21	78d	1	1.07mi
1060 Sadie St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,200	$1.10	7d	1	1.12mi
3085 Seth Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1804	$1,950	$1.08	37d	1	1.13mi
2520 Caden Ct Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1535	$1,995	$1.30	4d	1	1.13mi
1114 Leafy Glade Rd Forney, TX	5.0	2.5	2376	$2,900	$1.22	107d	1	1.14mi
413 Driftwood Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1733	$2,000	$1.15	111d	1	1.29mi
413 Driftwood Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1733	$1,999	$1.15	106d	1	1.29mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No municipal utility district
• Financial info: Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA managed by Guardian Association ManagementAnnual HOA fee of $1,590 covering grounds and structure maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener facing front (20' x 20')2 covered parking spacesNo carport spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)Carbon monoxide detector(s)Fire alarm
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerEnergy-efficient appliances, HVAC, insulation, mechanical fresh air, thermostat, windows, and rain/freeze sensors
• Home design: Single family residenceTwo levelsNew construction completed in 2025Residential property
• Construction: Brick constructionComposition roofSlab foundationNew construction - complete (2025)
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es)Wood fencingFew trees, landscaped yard with sprinkler systemInterior lot in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen islandWater line to refrigeratorDishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 2 with dual sinks, garden tub, separate shower, linen closet and walk-in closetBedroom on level 2 (12 x 12)Bedroom on level 2 (13 x 10) with walk-in closetBedroom on level 1 (12 x 11) with walk-in closet
• Flooring: CarpetCeramic tileVinyl
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas)Central electric airCeiling fans
• Interior features: Cable TV availableDecorative lightingHigh-speed internet availableIntegrated pest management and moisture control ventilation
• Laundry & utility: Utility room (level 2, 9 x 6)

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $329,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $329,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $329,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $348,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $348,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $348,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $348,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $348,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $348,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $348,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $348,000 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    listed $348,000 Active 1162-char remark
18. 2026-05-21
    listed $348,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,623
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,429
• − Property taxes: −$4,935
• − Insurance: −$1,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,610
• − Management: −$2,610
• − HOA: −$1,596
• − Depreciation: −$9,571
• Taxable loss: −$8,773
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,105
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,002/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready home features a modern kitchen, well-maintained exterior, and a desirable location in a master-planned community with resort-style amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improves the home's overall appearance and adds value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Henderson El C TX #705/4,322 Nat'l #10,986/41,679 Middle Warren Middle D+ TX #443/1,662 Nat'l #4,335/14,009 High Forney H S C+ TX #258/1,632 Nat'l #3,443/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forney, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 138,716 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No municipal utility district
• Financial info: Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA managed by Guardian Association ManagementAnnual HOA fee of $1,590 covering grounds and structure maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener facing front (20' x 20')2 covered parking spacesNo carport spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)Carbon monoxide detector(s)Fire alarm
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerEnergy-efficient appliances, HVAC, insulation, mechanical fresh air, thermostat, windows, and rain/freeze sensors
• Home design: Single family residenceTwo levelsNew construction completed in 2025Residential property
• Construction: Brick constructionComposition roofSlab foundationNew construction - complete (2025)
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es)Wood fencingFew trees, landscaped yard with sprinkler systemInterior lot in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen islandWater line to refrigeratorDishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 2 with dual sinks, garden tub, separate shower, linen closet and walk-in closetBedroom on level 2 (12 x 12)Bedroom on level 2 (13 x 10) with walk-in closetBedroom on level 1 (12 x 11) with walk-in closet
• Flooring: CarpetCeramic tileVinyl
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas)Central electric airCeiling fans
• Interior features: Cable TV availableDecorative lightingHigh-speed internet availableIntegrated pest management and moisture control ventilation
• Laundry & utility: Utility room (level 2, 9 x 6)

Price history

+24.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-23 Price Changed $433,000 NTREIS
• 2026-06-23 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $329,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-21 Listed $348,000 NTREIS