5845 N Bayview Rd · Southold, NY 11971

$950,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,989 sqft · SingleFamily · 133 Days on market

Built 1986 Good condition 0.49 ac lot $478/sqft · 22% below area Est $1.222M · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away in a peaceful enclave of Southold, this classic Cape Cod offers a private escape that backs directly onto protected woodlands. One of the home’s standout features is an expansive three-season sunroom, which serves as a light-filled bridge between the indoors and your own quiet backyard sanctuary. Whether you are hosting a summer brunch or enjoying a morning coffee, the surrounding nature ensures a level of privacy that is truly rare. Inside, the residence is designed for effortless living and is flooded with natural light. The main level offers the ultimate convenience of a primary bedroom with an ensuite bath and a dedicated laundry room, anchored by a spacious living area perfect for relaxing. Upstairs, you will find two additional oversized bedrooms—one featuring a generous walk-in closet—along with easy access to the attic. Modern essentials are seamlessly integrated throughout, including a full-house generator for peace of mind, a zoned irrigation sprinkler system, and a built-in Sonos system to set the mood for any occasion. This property places the very best of the North Fork right at your fingertips, situated just minutes from the stunning waters of Goose Creek, the sands of Cedar Beach, and Southold’s vibrant main street known for boutique shopping and fine dining. With renowned farmstands and vineyards only a short drive away, this home represents a rare opportunity to enjoy a secluded coastal lifestyle in one of the area’s most sought-after locations.

Key facts

• Spacious living area
• Protected woodlands
• Three season sunroom

Tags

• THREE SEASON SUNROOM
• PROTECTED WOODLANDS
• QUIET BACKYARD SANCTUARY
• PRIMARY BEDROOM WITH ENSUITE
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $950k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($47k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($13k rent vs $950k).
• Recommended offer: $836k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 6.3% in Southold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Southold Union Free School District (town): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #298 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Southold Elementary School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 317 students, 35% FRL); Southold Junior-Senior High School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 380 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 17% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $12,724/mo this rent would consume 123% of the median local household income ($124k/yr) (locally 22% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $266k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($836k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $730k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $836,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.78%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,222,448
• List price: $950,000
• Delta: -22.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2120 Brigantine Dr	0.28mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,000 (+1%)	6mo	$1,150,000	$575	68
800 Goose Creek Ln	0.42mi	3/3.0	2,032 (+2%)	8mo	$1,250,000	$615	66
9875 Main Bayview Rd	0.43mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,000 (+1%)	9mo	$950,000	$475	63
1100 Beachwood Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	2,000 (+1%)	22mo	$1,807,250	$904	49
605 aka 565 Cedar Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,911 (-4%)	14mo	$950,000	$497	49
340 Rambler Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,700 (-14%)	0mo	$961,000	$565	48
950 Paradise Shores Rd	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (-14%)	17mo	$849,000	$499	37
205 Pine Ave	0.47mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,280 (+15%)	11mo	$1,205,000	$529	35
1745 N Parish Dr	0.50mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,250 (+13%)	21mo	$2,300,000	$1,022	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $96,980
• Equity at exit: $141,648

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $407,307
• Equity at exit: $82,139

Cash invested: $266,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 8 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 48.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $1,650,000 ($889/sqft)
• Median days on market: 103 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -30.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 11971

• Home prices YoY: -15.8%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,724 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,982
• Tax from tax record: −$733 /mo · $8,794/yr
• Insurance: −$396
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,672
• Net cashflow: $3,941

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,735

Max offer price $950,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4,479	-5% $4,210	+0% $3,941	+5% $3,672	+10% $3,403
Rent	-10% $2,936	-5% $3,438	+0% $3,941	+5% $4,444	+10% $4,946
Rate	-1.0pp $4,419	-0.5pp $4,183	base $3,941	+0.5pp $3,695	+1.0pp $3,444

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $237,500
• Closing costs: $28,500
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1265 Brigantine Dr Southold, NY	3.0	2.0	1750	$9,000	$5.14	40d	1	0.42mi
215 Northfield Ln Southold, NY	4.0	3.0	2300	$13,000	$5.65	67d	1	0.42mi
1854 N Bayview Rd Southold, NY	2.0	2.5	1750	$15,000	$8.57	93d	1	0.53mi
2662 Paradise Shores Rd Southold, NY	3.0	1.5	1300	$25,000	$19.23	74d	1	0.62mi
2845 Hobart Rd Southold, NY	3.0	2.0	1300	$22,000	$16.92	93d	1	1.22mi
425 Old Shipyard Ln Southold, NY	3.0	1.5	1578	$10,000	$6.34	93d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $950,000 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $950,000 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $950,000 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $950,000 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $950,000 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $950,000 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $950,000 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $950,000 Active 124 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $950,000 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $950,000 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $950,000 Active 119 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $950,000 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $950,000 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $950,000 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $950,000 Active 115 DOM
16. 2026-07-20
    days on market $950,000 Active 114 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $950,000 Active 112 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    pricedays on market $950,000 Active 110 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $970,000 Active 109 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $970,000 Active 108 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $970,000 Active 107 DOM
22. 2026-07-12
    days on market $970,000 Active 106 DOM
23. 2026-07-12
    days on market $970,000 Active 105 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $970,000 Active 104 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $970,000 Active 103 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $970,000 Active 101 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $970,000 Active 100 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $970,000 Active 99 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $970,000 Active 98 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $970,000 Active 97 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $970,000 Active 96 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $970,000 Active 95 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $970,000 Active 94 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $970,000 Active 93 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $970,000 Active 92 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $970,000 Active 91 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $970,000 Active 90 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $970,000 Active 86 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $970,000 Active 85 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $970,000 Active 84 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $970,000 Active 82 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $970,000 Active 81 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $970,000 Active 80 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $970,000 Active 79 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $970,000 Active 77 DOM
46. 2026-06-12
    days on market $970,000 Active 76 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $970,000 Active 73 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $970,000 Active 72 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $970,000 Active 71 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $970,000 Active 70 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,794 · $733/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,425 · $1,035/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,630/yr (+$303/mo · 41.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $152,683
• − Mortgage interest: −$53,215
• − Property taxes: −$8,794
• − Insurance: −$4,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$12,215
• − Management: −$12,215
• − Depreciation: −$27,636
• Taxable income: $33,859
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8,126
• After-tax cash flow: $39,167/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,945–$29,835 screening

This Cape Cod home offers a good condition with cosmetic updates, ready for a new owner to move in and enjoy the serene surroundings.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good Flooring hardwood Appliances stainless steel HVAC central · new lt5

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and privacy ↑
• Both paint — fresh paint improves curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Southold Elementary School D NY #1,085/2,108 Nat'l #12,785/41,679 High Southold Junior-Senior High School D+ NY #946/1,100 Nat'l #5,016/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southold Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627620
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $78,622
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2269
• State rank: #298 of 590 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Southold

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #10545

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southold, NY
• County: Suffolk · 1,505,262 people
• City population: 6,507
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 6,507
• Household income: $124,097
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 22% of renters

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Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.14%
• Current HPI: 396.5481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+501.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $999,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-28 Listed $1,050,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $730,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-07 Sold (MLS) $730,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-06 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-08 Listed $725,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $480,000 Public Records
• 2002-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $345,000 Public Records
• 1992-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $166,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,794 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.