200 Acr 172 · Elkhart, TX 75839

$139,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,122 sqft · SingleFamily · 53 Days on market

3.33 ac lot $125/sqft · 56% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to the peace & beauty of the countryside w/ this inviting 3 BR 1 BA home nestled on 3.33 lovely acres. Perfect for those seeking space, privacy & room to roam. Home has new roof, new Hotwater heater. Wood floors . Barn is ideal for livestock storage or workshop/hobbies. Plenty of room for garden area & outdoor entertaining.

Key facts

• Garden area
• Wood floors
• Outdoor entertaining

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW HOTWATER HEATER
• WOOD FLOORS
• BARN FOR LIVESTOCK STORAGE
• GARDEN AREA
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 1.5% in Elkhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#750 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Elkhart ISD (rural): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #153 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in Anderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Anderson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,378 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.39%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,857
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -56.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.28% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $35,664
• Equity at exit: $90,395

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.81×
• Total profit: $109,879
• Equity at exit: $166,083

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75839

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,084 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $-111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,224

Max offer price $123,891

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,900 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $139,900 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $139,900 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $139,900 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $139,900 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-04-17
    listed $139,900 Active 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Escape to the peace & beauty of the countryside w/ this inviting 3 BR 1 BA home nestled on 3.33 lovely acres. Perfect for those seeking space, privacy & room to roam. Home has new roof, new Hotwater heater. Wood floors . Barn is ideal for livestock storage or workshop/hobbies. Plenty of room for garden area & outdoor entertaining.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,005
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,040
• − Management: −$1,040
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$3,780
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$907
• After-tax cash flow: $-420/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elkhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818390
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,633
• Composite: 44.01/100
• National rank: #2890
• State rank: #153 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elkhart

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #750
• US rank: #13836

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,577

Population outlook (Anderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,663 people
• By 2030: 57,373 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 58,960 · +4.1%
• By 2050: 59,073 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 53,737 · -5.2%
• By 2100: 42,516 · -25.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Anderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.8) · D 18.8% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -43.5pp · 2024: -61.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.8 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+58.1 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+43.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.28%
• Current HPI: 232.112
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $139,900 PAOR