Chamberlaine Plan · Midlothian, TX 76065

$499,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,840 sqft · SingleFamily · 529 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Chamberlaine floor plan by David Weekley Homes blends vibrant lifestyle spaces with top-quality craftsmanship. Begin and end each day in the exquisite comfort of your superb Owner's Retreat, which includes a pamper-ready bathroom and a deluxe walk-in closet. Each spare bedroom supports growing minds and personalities by combining unique appeal and plenty of room to thrive. The spacious central retreat and welcoming front study invite you to create your ultimate special-purpose rooms. Cook up culinary delights in the streamlined kitchen, which features a step-in pantry and a family gathering island. Your open floor plan provides a sunlit space ready to fulfill your design and décor dreams. Enjoy your evening leisure with a good book and your favorite beverage from the shade of your covered porch. Get the most out of each day with the innovative EnergySaver™ enhancements of this distinguished new home in Redden Farms of Midlothian, Texas.

Key facts

• Step-in pantry
• Covered porch
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• PAMPER-READY BATHROOM
• DELUXE WALK-IN CLOSET
• STEP-IN PANTRY
• FAMILY GATHERING ISLAND
• COVERED PORCH
• ENERGYSAVER ENHANCEMENTS

🏗️ New construction. The $499,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $506,225.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $500k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-974 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $365k (26.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $320k (36.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $320k (36.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#371 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Midlothian ISD (suburban): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #94 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: T E Baxter El (math 49% / reading 48%, grade D, #950 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 600 students, 37% FRL); Walnut Grove Middle (math 57% / reading 56%, grade B, #226 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 992 students, 21% FRL); Midlothian H S (math 48% / reading 55%, grade D+, #478 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 1,994 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); tight market (median 1 DOM); 1582 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 54d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 77% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($128k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 529 days — a 12% lower offer ($440k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $319,525 (36.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 529 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.25%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $506,225
• List price: $499,990
• Delta: -1.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
205 Vineyard Ln	0.13mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,658 (-6%)	4mo	$597,756	$225	75
344 Dairy Way	0.35mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,817 (-1%)	2mo	$419,128	$149	73
3438 Arbor Grove Trl	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,972 (+5%)	3mo	$504,999	$170	70
3457 Shorthorn Ln	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,642 (-7%)	1mo	$499,999	$189	68
3452 Shorthorn Ln	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,574 (-9%)	1mo	$574,990	$223	67
3275 Jersey Dr	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,480 (-13%)	2mo	$549,990	$222	67
340 Dairy Way	0.29mi	4/3.5	3,106 (+9%)	3mo	$471,999	$152	66
4005 Orchard Park Ln	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,952 (+4%)	5mo	$430,000	$146	56
3801 Grove Valley Rd	0.55mi	4/3.0	3,256 (+15%)	2mo	$530,000	$163	48
518 Dover Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5	3,172 (+12%)	2mo	$499,000	$157	48
4014 Grove Valley Rd	0.70mi	4/3.0	3,194 (+12%)	3mo	$442,000	$138	44
717 Willowbranch Ln	0.68mi	4/3.5	3,138 (+10%)	6mo	$485,000	$155	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-139,728
• Equity at exit: $75,480

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-183,245
• Equity at exit: $43,769

Cash invested: $141,743 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 95 active · 44 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.6 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $492,990 ($186/sqft)
• Median days on market: 110 d
• This list price: 56% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -3.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76065

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Median DOM (565 sales): 1 d
• Active inventory: 1582
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,195 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,655
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$633 /mo · $7,593/yr
• Insurance: −$211
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$671
• Net cashflow: $-974

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,428

Max offer price $365,263

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-624	-5% $-799	+0% $-974	+5% $-1,149	+10% $-1,324
Rent	-10% $-1,227	-5% $-1,100	+0% $-974	+5% $-848	+10% $-722
Rate	-1.0pp $-719	-0.5pp $-845	base $-974	+0.5pp $-1,105	+1.0pp $-1,239

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $126,556
• Closing costs: $15,187
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3060 Farmhouse Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.5	2658	$3,500	$1.32	41d	1	0.04mi
3250 Jersey Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2280	$3,400	$1.49	41d	1	0.12mi
3005 Arbor Grove Trl Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.0	2121	$2,895	$1.36	40d	1	0.22mi
347 Freestall Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.0	2086	$2,895	$1.39	84d	1	0.31mi
355 Freestall Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.0	1940	$3,250	$1.68	18d	1	0.33mi
344 Dairy Way Midlothian, TX	3.0	2.5	2817	$3,200	$1.14	64d	1	0.33mi
2841 Hay Ln Midlothian, TX	3.0	2.0	1941	$2,750	$1.42	86d	1	0.35mi
2837 Hay Ln Midlothian, TX	3.0	2.0	2153	$2,900	$1.35	88d	1	0.35mi
2817 Hay Ln Midlothian, TX	3.0	2.0	1941	$2,750	$1.42	88d	1	0.37mi
3825 Honey Grove Dr Midlothian, TX	5.0	4.0	3771	$4,500	$1.19	139d	1	0.56mi
3829 Honey Grove Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$3,200	$1.33	139d	1	0.57mi
1017 Fairhaven Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.5	2189	$3,200	$1.46	0d	1	0.59mi
1017 Greencove Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.0	2270	$3,200	$1.41	0d	1	0.69mi
1017 Greencove Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.0	2270	$3,200	$1.41	2d	1	0.69mi
2 Saint Charles Pl Midlothian, TX	5.0	3.0	2400	$8,950	$3.73	139d	1	0.79mi
2 Saint Charles Pl Unit 1389216P Midlothian, TX	5.0	3.0	2389	$15,575	$6.52	120d	1	0.79mi
3222 Eagle Ln Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.5	2380	$2,675	$1.12	54d	1	0.97mi
4017 Alpine St Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2311	$3,200	$1.38	24d	1	0.97mi
4021 Alpine St Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2311	$3,100	$1.34	94d	1	0.98mi
3826 Hyde Park Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.5	2822	$2,995	$1.06	51d	1	0.99mi
1109 Abbey Ln Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2449	$2,900	$1.18	32d	1	0.99mi
1137 Robin Cir Midlothian, TX	5.0	2.5	2646	$2,900	$1.10	51d	1	1.01mi
1146 Finch Cir Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.5	2332	$2,215	$0.95	4d	1	1.04mi
1146 Finch Cir Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.5	2332	$2,646	$1.13	24d	1	1.04mi
4213 Pasture View Ave Midlothian, TX	4.0	4.5	3026	$3,650	$1.21	82d	1	1.19mi
1609 Whisperwood Way Midlothian, TX	5.0	4.0	3998	$4,295	$1.07	93d	1	1.24mi
1609 Whisperwood Way Midlothian, TX	5.0	4.0	3998	$4,295	$1.07	103d	1	1.24mi
2610 Tall Meadows Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.0	2500	$2,995	$1.20	42d	1	1.29mi
1818 Whisperwood Way Midlothian, TX	4.0	4.0	3391	$4,600	$1.36	68d	1	1.32mi
4434 Verbena St Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.5	2970	$3,400	$1.14	49d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-31
   days on market $499,990 Active 529 DOM
2. 2026-08-30
   days on market $499,990 Active 528 DOM
3. 2026-08-29
   days on market $499,990 Active 527 DOM
4. 2026-08-28
   days on market $499,990 Active 526 DOM
5. 2026-08-27
   days on market $499,990 Active 525 DOM
6. 2026-08-25
   days on market $499,990 Active 523 DOM
7. 2026-08-24
   days on market $499,990 Active 522 DOM
8. 2026-08-23
   days on market $499,990 Active 521 DOM
9. 2026-08-22
   days on market $499,990 Active 520 DOM
10. 2026-08-21
    days on market $499,990 Active 519 DOM
11. 2026-08-20
    days on market $499,990 Active 518 DOM
12. 2026-08-19
    days on market $499,990 Active 517 DOM
13. 2026-08-18
    days on market $499,990 Active 516 DOM
14. 2026-08-17
    days on market $499,990 Active 515 DOM
15. 2026-08-16
    days on market $499,990 Active 514 DOM
16. 2026-08-15
    days on market $499,990 Active 513 DOM
17. 2026-08-14
    days on market $499,990 Active 512 DOM
18. 2026-08-13
    days on market $499,990 Active 511 DOM
19. 2026-08-12
    days on market $499,990 Active 510 DOM
20. 2026-08-11
    days on market $499,990 Active 509 DOM
21. 2026-08-10
    days on market $499,990 Active 508 DOM
22. 2026-08-09
    days on market $499,990 Active 507 DOM
23. 2026-08-08
    days on market $499,990 Active 506 DOM
24. 2026-08-06
    days on market $499,990 Active 504 DOM
25. 2026-08-05
    days on market $499,990 Active 503 DOM
26. 2026-08-04
    days on market $499,990 Active 502 DOM
27. 2026-08-03
    days on market $499,990 Active 501 DOM
28. 2026-07-31
    days on market $499,990 Active 498 DOM
29. 2026-07-30
    days on market $499,990 Active 497 DOM
30. 2026-07-30
    days on market $499,990 Active 496 DOM
31. 2026-07-28
    days on market $499,990 Active 495 DOM
32. 2026-07-26
    days on market $499,990 Active 493 DOM
33. 2026-07-24
    days on market $499,990 Active 491 DOM
34. 2026-07-23
    days on market $499,990 Active 490 DOM
35. 2026-07-22
    days on market $499,990 Active 489 DOM
36. 2026-07-21
    days on market $499,990 Active 488 DOM
37. 2026-07-20
    days on market $499,990 Active 487 DOM
38. 2026-07-18
    days on market $499,990 Active 485 DOM
39. 2026-07-18
    days on market $499,990 Active 484 DOM
40. 2026-07-16
    days on market $499,990 Active 483 DOM
41. 2026-07-15
    days on market $499,990 Active 482 DOM
42. 2026-07-14
    days on market $499,990 Active 481 DOM
43. 2026-07-13
    days on market $499,990 Active 480 DOM
44. 2026-07-13
    days on market $499,990 Active 479 DOM
45. 2026-07-11
    days on market $499,990 Active 478 DOM
46. 2026-07-10
    days on market $499,990 Active 477 DOM
47. 2026-07-09
    days on market $499,990 Active 476 DOM
48. 2026-07-07
    days on market $499,990 Active 474 DOM
49. 2026-07-06
    days on market $499,990 Active 473 DOM
50. 2026-07-06
    days on market $499,990 Active 472 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,343
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,356
• − Property taxes: −$7,593
• − Insurance: −$2,531
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,067
• − Management: −$3,067
• − Depreciation: −$14,727
• Taxable loss: −$20,999
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,040
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,650/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great opportunity for an investor to make minor updates and improvements to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Interior updates — Fresh paint and minor updates can improve the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce utility costs. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary T E Baxter El D TX #950/4,322 Nat'l #14,081/41,679 Middle Walnut Grove Middle B TX #226/1,662 Nat'l #2,304/14,009 High Midlothian Heritage H S C TX #315/1,632 Nat'l #3,934/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midlothian ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830600
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $85,068
• Composite: 48.22/100
• National rank: #2165
• State rank: #94 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Midlothian

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #7851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midlothian, TX
• County: Ellis County · 194,556 people
• City population: 47,438
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 47,438
• Household income: $127,756
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.85%
• Current HPI: 243.5953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.32%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $499,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $519,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $529,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $514,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $512,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-21 Listed $502,990 Zillow