Annapolis Plan · Plant City, FL 33565

$309,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,448 sqft · SingleFamily · 464 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

In this single-story home, the kitchen, dining room and family room cohesively flow together with a contemporary open floorplan. The adjacent owner's suite offers a comfortable place to relax with a private bathroom and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms provide space for the rest of the family.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Private bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $309,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $327,074.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-314 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#227 in FL, #3,587 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Knights Elementary School (math 52% / reading 45%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 623 students, 70% FRL); Marshall Middle Magnet School (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #469 of 571 statewide, top 84%, 1,089 students, 69% FRL); Plant City High School (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 2,474 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 499 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 464 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $246,408 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 464 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.11%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $327,074
• List price: $309,990
• Delta: -5.22%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2782 Bryce Ravine Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,448 (0%)	9mo	$302,000	$209	78
4019 Northern Key Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	17mo	$311,990	$214	77
3914 Radiant Mountain Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,483 (+2%)	19mo	$320,000	$216	76
4057 Radiant Mountain Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	20mo	$304,900	$209	74
3909 Radiant Mountain Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,483 (+2%)	22mo	$348,270	$235	72
3923 Radiant Mountain Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+11%)	18mo	$345,000	$215	59
3746 Capital Reserve Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,556 (+8%)	20mo	$355,925	$229	53
3719 Capital Reserve Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,556 (+8%)	22mo	$320,900	$206	49
3647 Natural Trace St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,556 (+8%)	24mo	$334,425	$215	45
2606 S Wilder Loop	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,293 (-11%)	18mo	$275,000	$213	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-72,943
• Equity at exit: $48,768

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-89,095
• Equity at exit: $28,279

Cash invested: $91,581 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 17 active
• Median asking: $309,490 ($214/sqft)
• Median days on market: 46 d
• This list price: 59% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33565

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Active inventory: 499
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,464 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,715
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$409 /mo · $4,906/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $-314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,861

Max offer price $281,679

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-88	-5% $-201	+0% $-314	+5% $-427	+10% $-540
Rent	-10% $-508	-5% $-411	+0% $-314	+5% $-216	+10% $-119
Rate	-1.0pp $-149	-0.5pp $-231	base $-314	+0.5pp $-398	+1.0pp $-485

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,769
• Closing costs: $9,812
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3830 Northern Key Dr Plant City, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,500	$1.61	30d	1	0.16mi
3911 N Wilder Rd Plant City, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,695	$1.70	44d	1	0.33mi
2318 Allium Roseum Ln Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	1817	$2,300	$1.27	54d	1	0.50mi
3830 Capri Coast Dr Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,600	$1.41	0d	1	0.71mi
3513 Coastal Dusk Dr Plant City, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,100	$1.35	44d	1	0.76mi
1412 Tahitian Sunrise Dr Plant City, FL	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,200	$1.43	24d	1	0.80mi
1412 Tahitian Sunrise Dr Plant City, FL	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,200	$1.43	62d	1	0.80mi
3306 N Wilder Rd Plant City, FL	3.0	2.0	1353	$1,650	$1.22	27d	1	0.95mi
4025 Westwood Fields Loop Plant City, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,425	$1.55	117d	1	1.15mi
4027 Westwood Fields Loop Plant City, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$3,200	$2.04	117d	1	1.15mi
4010 Westwood Fields Loop Plant City, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,100	$1.34	73d	1	1.19mi
4008 Westwood Fields Loop Plant City, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,250	$1.44	76d	1	1.20mi
4005 Westwood Fields Loop Unit 4005 Plant City, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,500	$1.60	120d	1	1.20mi
4005 Westwood Fields Loop Plant City, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,450	$1.57	24d	1	1.20mi
2902 Robinson Rd Plant City, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	44d	1	1.31mi
3410 Ivy Hollow Dr Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,650	$1.44	30d	1	1.31mi
3329 Shady Sunrise Loop Plant City, FL	3.0	2.0	1513	$2,450	$1.62	10d	1	1.33mi
754 Arbor Estates Way Plant City, FL	2.0	2.0	1485	$1,799	$1.21	44d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $309,990 Active 464 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $309,990 Active 463 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $309,990 Active 462 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $309,990 Active 461 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $309,990 Active 460 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $309,990 Active 459 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $309,990 Active 458 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $309,990 Active 457 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $309,990 Active 456 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $309,990 Active 455 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $309,990 Active 454 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $309,990 Active 453 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $309,990 Active 452 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $309,990 Active 451 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $309,990 Active 445 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $309,990 Active 444 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $309,990 Active 443 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $309,990 Active 440 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $309,990 Active 439 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $309,990 Active 438 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $309,990 Active 437 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $309,990 Active 436 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $309,990 Active 435 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $309,990 Active 434 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $309,990 Active 433 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $309,990 Active 432 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $309,990 Active 431 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $309,990 Active 429 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $309,990 Active 428 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $309,990 Active 427 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $309,990 Active 426 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $309,990 Active 425 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $309,990 Active 424 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $309,990 Active 423 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $309,990 Active 422 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $309,990 Active 421 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $309,990 Active 420 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $309,990 Active 419 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $309,990 Active 418 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $309,990 Active 417 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $309,990 Active 415 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $309,990 Active 414 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $309,990 Active 413 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $309,990 Active 412 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $309,990 Active 409 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $309,990 Active 407 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $309,990 Active 406 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $309,990 Active 404 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $309,990 Active 402 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $309,990 Active 401 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,321
• − Property taxes: −$4,906
• − Insurance: −$1,635
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,366
• − Management: −$2,366
• − Depreciation: −$9,515
• Taxable loss: −$9,540
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,290
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,475/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value through minor updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Replacing old tile with a more modern material can improve both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home technology can increase the home's appeal and marketability. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers and renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Knights Elementary School D FL #1,152/2,144 Nat'l #14,081/41,679 Middle Marshall Middle Magnet School F FL #469/571 Nat'l #9,020/14,009 High Plant City High School F FL #312/667 Nat'l #8,724/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Plant City

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #3587

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Plant City, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,607,022 people
• City population: 68,525
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,108
• Household income: $73,414
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.17%
• Current HPI: 347.2475
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-12.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $309,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $305,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $302,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-17 Listed $354,990 Zillow