Pierce - Limited Series Plan · North Sarasota, FL 34234

$199,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 58 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

55+ age qualified community. COMING SOON! Currently under construction. Welcome to Winds of St. Armands South, a 55+ age-qualified active and vibrant community, where your dream home is coming to life. We are excited to offer a this 2026 2.5 bed, 2 bath home for sale, featuring approximately 1456.00 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. Located in Sarasota, this soon-to-be-completed property will offer the perfect blend of modern design and timeless comfort. Construction is underway, and soon you'll be able to step inside and experience ] an open-concept floor plan, high ceilings, natural light, and a Hidden Walk in Pantry! The kitchen will be beautifully designed with stainless steel appliances, custom cabinetry and a large curved kitchen island, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious Primary suite will serve as a relaxing retreat, complete with en-suite features like dual vanities, walk in shower, and a large walk-in closet. Additional bedrooms will provide flexibility for guests. Outside, the home will include a private backyard oasis complete with low-maintenance landscaping, perfect for enjoying your outdoor space once construction is complete. Located in the desirable Winds of St. Armands South, residents enjoy access to a variety of premium amenities! Conveniently situated near UTC, dining, major highways, and a national park perfect for all of your hiking dream! Everything you need will be just minutes away. Now is the perfect time to s

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Listed 58 days

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• HIDDEN WALK IN PANTRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• LARGE CURVED KITCHEN ISLAND
• PRIVATE BACKYARD OASIS

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (1.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#349 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: commute D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.1%/yr); 268 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.91%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-26,537
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-30,438
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34234

• Rents YoY: -3.1%
• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,980 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $199,900 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-04-22
    listed $199,900 Active 1498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1498 chars)

    55+ age qualified community. COMING SOON! Currently under construction. Welcome to Winds of St. Armands South, a 55+ age-qualified active and vibrant community, where your dream home is coming to life. We are excited to offer a this 2026 2.5 bed, 2 bath home for sale, featuring approximately 1456.00 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. Located in Sarasota, this soon-to-be-completed property will offer the perfect blend of modern design and timeless comfort. Construction is underway, and soon you'll be able to step inside and experience ] an open-concept floor plan, high ceilings, natural light, and a Hidden Walk in Pantry! The kitchen will be beautifully designed with stainless steel appliances, custom cabinetry and a large curved kitchen island, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious Primary suite will serve as a relaxing retreat, complete with en-suite features like dual vanities, walk in shower, and a large walk-in closet. Additional bedrooms will provide flexibility for guests. Outside, the home will include a private backyard oasis complete with low-maintenance landscaping, perfect for enjoying your outdoor space once construction is complete. Located in the desirable Winds of St. Armands South, residents enjoy access to a variety of premium amenities! Conveniently situated near UTC, dining, major highways, and a national park perfect for all of your hiking dream! Everything you need will be just minutes away. Now is the perfect time to s

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,757
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,901
• − Management: −$1,901
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$1,055
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$253
• After-tax cash flow: $2,444/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This 55+ age-qualified community home is nearly complete and move-in ready, featuring modern design and high-quality finishes.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Resale Interior paint touch-ups — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Resale Interior paint touch-ups — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Sarasota

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #349
• US rank: #6050

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,986
• Household income: $57,288
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Hispanic 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -229.06%
• Current HPI: 305.6629
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.15%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $199,900 Zillow