1312 State Route 10 · Jefferson, NY 12093

$95,000

1 bd · 0.5 ba · 962 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1900 0.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

The Chapel in Jefferson A rare opportunity to reimagine a piece of Jefferson history, this circa-1900 former church offers charm, and character in a very memorable package. With its cedar shake exterior, pointed-arch windows, original double entry doors, and simple country-chapel form, the building retains the soulful presence of its past while offering a flexible next chapter. Inside, warm wood walls, exposed beams, a lofted upper level, and open gathering spaces create a rustic, atmospheric interior with wonderful potential. The property has been adapted over time for residential and retail use, and currently includes areas that have functioned as bedrooms, along with a kitchen and bat

Key facts

• Lofted upper level
• Cedar shake exterior
• Pointed-arch windows

Tags

• CEDAR SHAKE EXTERIOR
• POINTED-ARCH WINDOWS
• ORIGINAL DOUBLE ENTRY DOORS
• LOFTED UPPER LEVEL
• OPEN GATHERING SPACES
• RUSTIC ATMOSPHERIC INTERIOR

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Septic tank; Water connected
• Home design: 2-story existing structure
• Construction: Shake siding; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Rectangular lot approximately 0.4 acres (75 x 200); Road frontage on a main thoroughfare

Interior

• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Mixed/varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating with baseboard distribution; Has heating
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Convertible bedroom; Other features (see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-265/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $91k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $93k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $91k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #723 of 755 in NY (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Schoharie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Schoharie County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $91,098 (4.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.00%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $50,408
• Equity at exit: $85,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.63×
• Total profit: $149,697
• Equity at exit: $184,564

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12093

• Home prices YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $928 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$218 /mo · $2,613/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$195
• Net cashflow: $-22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $956

Max offer price $91,098

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $32	-5% $5	+0% $-22	+5% $-49	+10% $-76
Rent	-10% $-95	-5% $-59	+0% $-22	+5% $15	+10% $51
Rate	-1.0pp $26	-0.5pp $2	base $-22	+0.5pp $-47	+1.0pp $-72

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $95,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    listed $95,000 Active
17. 2025-11-25
    historical
18. 2025-09-25
    listed $140,000 Active
19. 2010-06-30
    soldstatus $70,000
20. 2002-08-16
    soldstatus $34,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,613 · $218/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,613 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥87°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,141
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$2,613
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$891
• − Management: −$891
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable loss: −$1,815
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$436
• After-tax cash flow: $171/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615720
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,778
• Composite: 29.11/100
• National rank: #11892
• State rank: #723 of 755 in NY

Livability — Jefferson

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jefferson, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,258

Population outlook (Schoharie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,080 people
• By 2030: 27,417 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 23,835 · -18.0%
• By 2050: 20,482 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 14,323 · -50.7%
• By 2100: 9,636 · -66.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Schoharie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.5) · D 34.7% · R 65.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -14.3pp · 2024: -30.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.5 2020: R+29.0 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+14.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.67%
• Current HPI: 365.9951
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+179.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $95,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-11-25 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-09-25 Listed $140,000 UNYREIS
• 2010-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2002-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,613 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.