8803 Turner Dr · Citronelle, AL 36522

$158,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,363 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 2010 0.26 ac lot $116/sqft · at area comps Est $163k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3 bedroom 1 & 1/2 bath cottage nestled in the heart of Citronelle, tucked away on a dead-end street for added privacy. This home features a desirable split bedroom plan and an open concept layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious kitchen offers a breakfast bar, cozy breakfast area, pantry, and comes complete with a refrigerator, electric range, and dishwasher - all flowing seamlessly into the family room. Interior finishes include stained concrete flooring throughout the main living areas, ceramic tile in the bathrooms, and durable vinyl plank flooring in the laundry room. Enjoy relaxing mornings on the covered front porch and unwind in the evenings o

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Split bedroom plan
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• SPLIT BEDROOM PLAN
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• BREAKFAST BAR
• FENCED BACKYARD
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• COVERED BACK PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Electricity available (110 volts); Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2010
• Exterior features: Storage; Back yard fencing; Outbuilding; View

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar and breakfast room; Eat-in kitchen with pantry and view to family room; Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $151 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.2% in Citronelle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#254 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Citronelle High School (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #261 of 305 statewide, top 87%, 719 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools at 70% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 8% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Mobile County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,131 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.10%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $162,919
• List price: $158,000
• Delta: -3.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8770 State St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+13%)	8mo	$249,000	$162	52
19245 5th St N	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+10%)	20mo	$179,900	$120	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $95,591
• Equity at exit: $142,339

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.19×
• Total profit: $273,783
• Equity at exit: $306,959

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36522

• Home prices YoY: 11.8%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,371 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $455/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,180

Max offer price $158,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $240	-5% $196	+0% $151	+5% $106	+10% $62
Rent	-10% $43	-5% $97	+0% $151	+5% $205	+10% $259
Rate	-1.0pp $231	-0.5pp $191	base $151	+0.5pp $110	+1.0pp $68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8685 W Williams St Citronelle, AL	3.0	2.0	1716	$1,600	$0.93	14d	1	0.88mi
19490 Magnolia St Unit D Citronelle, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$940	$1.04	44d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $158,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $158,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $158,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $158,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $158,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $158,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $158,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $158,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $158,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $158,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $158,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $158,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $158,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $158,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $158,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $158,000 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $158,000 Active 31 DOM
18. 2026-04-29
    listed $158,000 Active 944-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $455 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $648 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: +$193/yr (+$16/mo · 42.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,456
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$455
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,316
• − Management: −$1,316
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable loss: −$869
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$209
• After-tax cash flow: $2,021/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Citronelle

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #17928

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Citronelle, AL
• City population: 6,892
• Population (ZIP): 6,892

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 18% Two or more races 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.55%
• Current HPI: 260.4914
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $158,000 GCMLS AL

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $455 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.