12711 Claygate Dr · Houston, TX 77047

$210,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,089 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1968 5,671 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Wonderful fully remodeled home with three bedrooms and two baths single story in Houston. Everything is brand new. Single car garage. Located near Almeda Genoa in South Acres. Please reach out to agent for more information. Lease to own only.

Key facts

• Fully remodeled home
• Single car garage
• Near almeda genoa

Tags

• FULLY REMODELED HOME
• SINGLE STORY
• SINGLE CAR GARAGE
• NEAR ALMEDA GENOA

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1968; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Concrete road access; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the first floor (each approx. 12 x 12); Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 12)
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Plank and vinyl flooring; Seller disclosure provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($995/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Law El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 514 students, 91% FRL); Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 19% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 284 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,438 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.69%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $132,858
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12506 S Coast Dr	0.19mi	3/1.5	1,026 (-6%)	3mo	$120,000	$117	77
12922 Claygate Dr	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,184 (+9%)	11mo	$124,900	$105	64
12539 Claygate Dr	0.10mi	3/1.0	998 (-8%)	23mo	$139,900	$140	62
12930 Segrest Dr	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,219 (+12%)	6mo	$122,000	$100	61
11707 Segrest Dr	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,020 (-6%)	9mo	$149,900	$147	56
3630 Almeda Genoa Rd	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,063 (-2%)	21mo	$128,900	$121	50
4307 Bungalow Ln	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,141 (+5%)	19mo	$139,000	$122	50
4414 Tavenor Ln	0.72mi	3/1.0	970 (-11%)	3mo	$149,000	$154	46
4415 Madden Ln	0.70mi	3/1.0	965 (-11%)	16mo	$140,000	$145	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-34,173
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-43,926
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77047

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 284
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,844 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$185 /mo · $2,225/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,739

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $202	-5% $142	+0% $83	+5% $23	+10% $-36
Rent	-10% $-63	-5% $10	+0% $83	+5% $156	+10% $229
Rate	-1.0pp $189	-0.5pp $136	base $83	+0.5pp $28	+1.0pp $-27

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4015 Marchant Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	45d	1	0.22mi
11819 Leitrim Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1476	$1,150	$0.78	7d	1	0.53mi
12227 Cape Hyannis Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,705	$1.19	16d	1	0.76mi
3918 Almeda-Genoa Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$2,220	$2.14	0d	26	0.76mi
13561 Cullen Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$1,450	$1.46	45d	1	1.06mi
13555 Cullen Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	917	$1,900	$2.07	45d	35	1.08mi
4322 Groton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	858	$1,395	$1.63	45d	1	1.11mi
3110 Kainer Meadows Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,900	$1.29	9d	1	1.16mi
13351 Cityscape Ave Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	974	$1,820	$1.87	0d	26	1.24mi
2620 Almeda-Genoa Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	788	$1,650	$2.09	1d	15	1.28mi
11319 Murr Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1213	$1,699	$1.40	20d	1	1.30mi
4071 Schurmier Rd Unit SLC2 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$1,575	$1.59	5d	1	1.32mi
13511 Hycohen Rd Unit 13534 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1153	$1,704	$1.48	1d	1	1.38mi
13511 Hycohen Rd Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1153	$1,720	$1.49	6d	1	1.38mi
13511 Hycohen Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.5	961	$1,710	$1.78	14d	26	1.40mi
11806 City Park Central Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1107	$1,636	$1.48	18d	1	1.47mi
11806 City Park Central Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1107	$1,636	$1.48	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $210,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $210,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $210,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $210,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-05-17
    listed $210,000 Active
14. 2026-01-14
    soldstatus
15. 2025-12-24
    soldstatus
16. 2025-12-05
    historical
17. 2025-12-03
    status Active
18. 2025-11-30
    historical
19. 2025-11-07
    status Active
20. 2025-10-31
    status Pending
21. 2025-09-14
    price $120,300
22. 2025-09-14
    price $123,000
23. 2025-08-28
    listed $137,500 Active
24. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,225 · $185/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,843 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,618/yr (+$135/mo · 72.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,133
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$2,225
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,771
• − Management: −$1,771
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$2,556
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$613
• After-tax cash flow: $1,608/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,987
• Household income: $78,538
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1109.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 15% White 6% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 23% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.76%
• Current HPI: 239.2287
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+52.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-12-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-12-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-07 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-09-14 Price Changed $120,300 HARMLS
• 2025-09-14 Price Changed $123,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-28 Listed $137,500 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,225 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.