1800 Strasbourg Ln · Antioch, CA 94509

$235,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 48 Days on market

Built 1990 $163/sqft · 6% above area Est $221k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• ARV discount +4.6/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Set within the gated 55+ community of Delta Villa Estates, this inviting 2-bedroom, 2-bath residence occupies a prime corner lot. Recently refreshed with new interior and exterior paint, plush new carpeting, and elegant luxury vinyl plank flooring in select areas, the home feels bright and welcoming, enhanced by abundant windows and a skylight in the laundry room. The spacious kitchen offers plenty of cabinetry for storage, complemented by additional cabinets in the laundry area. The primary suite features a generously sized bedroom with a ceiling fan, along with an en-suite bath that includes dual sinks, a stall shower, and a deep soaking tub—ideal for unwinding. The guest bedroom is

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Community pool
• Built 1990

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Park name: DELTA VILLA ESTATES; Senior community; Pets allowed upon approval; Community amenities include clubhouse, greenbelt, fitness center, pool, sauna, spa, dog park, game room, guest parking, and recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2 covered parking spaces; 2 garage spaces; Garage faces front
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Gas water heater
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Double wide model (Silvercrest)
• Construction: Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Front yard; Back yard; Side yard; Automatic sprinklers; Patio; Porch with steps; Fenced yard; Corner lot; Landscaped

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Double oven; Gas range/cooktop; Tile counters; Disposal; Ice maker hookup; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms; Primary bedroom suite on main entry level
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with stall shower, sunken tub and double vanity; Secondary bathroom with stall shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Dining area; Window coverings; Mirrored closet doors; No additional rooms listed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer/dryer hookups only; Gas dryer hookup; 220V outlet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $711 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $235k).
• Recommended offer: $228k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#782 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Antioch Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #200 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 211 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.96%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,779
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: 6.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1821 Strasbourg Ln	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	0mo	$220,000	$153	97
1808 Paris	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	15mo	$204,900	$142	84
1813 Paris Ln	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	15mo	$180,000	$125	83
1840 Paris Ln	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,473 (+2%)	10mo	$205,500	$140	82
1817 Paris Ln	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	20mo	$198,000	$138	79
1820 Paris Ln	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	20mo	$230,000	$160	79
1824 Paris Ln	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	12mo	$260,000	$169	74
1901 Geneva Ln	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,238 (-14%)	2mo	$180,000	$145	70
1917 Geneva Ln	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-10%)	9mo	$225,000	$174	70
1831 Geneva Ln	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	20mo	$190,500	$142	69
1916 Geneva Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+8%)	10mo	$225,000	$144	67
1812 Paris Ln #68	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,334 (-7%)	21mo	$205,000	$154	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,968
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $39,385
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94509

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,732 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,404/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$574
• Net cashflow: $711

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,832

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $844	-5% $777	+0% $711	+5% $644	+10% $578
Rent	-10% $495	-5% $603	+0% $711	+5% $819	+10% $927
Rate	-1.0pp $829	-0.5pp $771	base $711	+0.5pp $650	+1.0pp $588

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2501 Brazil Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.5	1422	$3,100	$2.18	6d	1	0.42mi
1704 Somerset Pl Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	1190	$2,700	$2.27	17d	1	0.49mi
2912 Honeynut St Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1380	$3,275	$2.37	13d	1	0.67mi
2283 Renwick Ln Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	1008	$2,500	$2.48	44d	1	0.75mi
2101 Biglow Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	1.0	1025	$2,900	$2.83	11d	1	0.92mi
2700 Wildflower Station Pl #98 Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1150	$2,995	$2.60	13d	1	1.02mi
3560 E 18th St Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	828	$1,954	$2.36	4d	1	1.10mi
3560 E 18th St Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	828	$1,772	$2.14	0d	9	1.10mi
2004 Cavallo Rd Unit A Antioch, CA	3.0	2.5	1500	$3,450	$2.30	4d	1	1.11mi
600 Wilbur Ave Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$2,099	$2.56	0d	7	1.12mi
31 Sunset Dr Unit B Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	25d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $235,000 Pending 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $235,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    listed $235,000 Active 959-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,404 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,786 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$382/yr (+$32/mo · 27.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,780
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,404
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,622
• − Management: −$2,622
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable income: $4,956
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,190
• After-tax cash flow: $7,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Antioch Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602850
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 25.00%
• Median HH income: $65,935
• Composite: 37.57/100
• National rank: #4386
• State rank: #200 of 517 in CA

Livability — Antioch

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #782
• US rank: #22472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Antioch, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 116,477
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,090
• Household income: $86,196
• Rent vs Own: 42.0% rent · 58.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3063.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 25% Two or more races 18% Black 16% Asian 9% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -477.30%
• Current HPI: 309.3499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.09%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-30 Listed $235,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,404 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.