19401 Walker Rd #30 · Willits, CA 95490

$139,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,787 sqft · Manufactured · 47 Days on market

Built 2004

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 3 bed 2 bath home almost, 1800 sq. ft.,in a lovely setting at the edge of the park. Open fields and lovely views with a short walk to the swimming pool. The Entertainer Ultra model comes with a bonus family room and office in the Master bedroom. Minutes to Willits or Ukiah with easy highway access.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 2004
• Listed 46 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Future space rent: 0
• HOA & community: No association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Detached off-street parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Internet available; No on-site power production
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Located in Parkside community; Land lease
• Construction: Fleetwood manufacturer; Entertainer model; Vinyl skirt
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double sinks; Jetted tub; Shower stall(s); Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Wood-burning fireplace; Bonus room
• Laundry & utility: Washer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $618 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 2.6% in Willits — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#377 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F, employment F.
• Willits Unified (town): math 9% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #486 of 517 in CA (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Mendocino County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mendocino County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $91k; list at $139k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.09%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $16,839
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $65,407
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95490

• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,979 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,111/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $618

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,197

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $696	-5% $657	+0% $618	+5% $578	+10% $539
Rent	-10% $461	-5% $540	+0% $618	+5% $696	+10% $774
Rate	-1.0pp $688	-0.5pp $653	base $618	+0.5pp $582	+1.0pp $545

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,000 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-03-29
    listed $139,000 Active 1251-char remark
17. 2016-09-30
    soldstatus $91,000 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Spacious 3 bed 2 bath home almost, 1800 sq. ft.,in a lovely setting at the edge of the park. Open fields and lovely views with a short walk to the swimming pool. The Entertainer Ultra model comes with a bonus family room and office in the Master bedroom. Minutes to Willits or Ukiah with easy highway access.

18. 2016-07-25
    listed $85,000 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Spacious 3 bed 2 bath home almost, 1800 sq. ft.,in a lovely setting at the edge of the park. Open fields and lovely views with a short walk to the swimming pool. The Entertainer Ultra model comes with a bonus family room and office in the Master bedroom. Minutes to Willits or Ukiah with easy highway access.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,111 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,111 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,751
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$1,111
• − Insurance: −$1,492
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,900
• − Management: −$1,900
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $5,517
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,324
• After-tax cash flow: $6,088/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willits Unified
• NCES district ID: 0642560
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,494
• Composite: 14.14/100
• National rank: #9455
• State rank: #486 of 517 in CA

Livability — Willits

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #377
• US rank: #12923

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 14,627

Population outlook (Mendocino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,643 people
• By 2030: 82,138 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 76,402 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 71,759 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 61,454 · -27.4%
• By 2100: 50,130 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 18% Native American 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 11% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mendocino

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.8) · D 61.3% · R 34.5% · Other 4.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 42.8pp · 2024: 26.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.8 2020: D+35.8 2016: D+29.1 2012: D+37.6 2008: D+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -233.81%
• Current HPI: 155.0788
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+63.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2026-03-29 Listed $139,000 BAREIS
• 2016-09-30 Sold (MLS) $91,000 BAREIS
• 2016-07-25 Listed $85,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,111 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.