41 Mizzen Dr · Ocean Acres, NJ 08005

$369,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1979 6,151 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this fabulous 4 Bedroom home located in the heart of Barnegat Twp. Here you will find many upgrades. The tile floor on the 1st level is heated with 3 zones for added comfort and has been installed on a diagonal. The Kitchen is newer and has gorgeous granite countertops along with a large walk-in pantry. Stainless appliances are an added benefit with a double self-cleaning oven. All outlets and switches have been upgraded to Decora. You are definitely going to love the amount of closet space here. All bedroom closets have built in storage. The yard is huge and there is plenty of room for a pool if you would like to add one. Carpet on the stairs and upstairs hallway is brand new. Hot water heater has been replaced this year. Outdoor lighting is all on timers. Schedule your appointment to view this home today before its too late.

Key facts

• Huge yard
• Heated tile floor
• Built in storage

Tags

• HEATED TILE FLOOR
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE WALK-IN PANTRY
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• BUILT IN STORAGE
• HUGE YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached front-entry garage with one garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric heating and cooling
• Home design: Frame construction; Asphalt roof; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Frame construction; Asphalt roof; No basement
• Exterior features: Middle-of-block location

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the upper level; One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump(s); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Two or more access exits
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located on the upper floor; Electric hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $369k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $75 ($906/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $317k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $317k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.1% in Ocean Acres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#425 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Barnegat Township School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 472 in NJ (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lillian M. Dunfee Elementary (301 students, 28% FRL); Russell O. Brackman Middle School (math 22% / reading 51%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 579 students, 33% FRL); Barnegat High School (math 20% / reading 45%, grade F, #265 of 399 statewide, top 67%, 983 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 256 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $369k implies a 320% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $317,116 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.88%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-55,014
• Equity at exit: $55,019

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-41,822
• Equity at exit: $31,904

Cash invested: $103,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08005

• Active inventory: 256
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,171 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax from tax record: −$341 /mo · $4,091/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$666
• Net cashflow: $75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,076

Max offer price $369,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $284	-5% $180	+0% $75	+5% $-29	+10% $-133
Rent	-10% $-175	-5% $-50	+0% $75	+5% $201	+10% $326
Rate	-1.0pp $261	-0.5pp $169	base $75	+0.5pp $-20	+1.0pp $-117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,250
• Closing costs: $11,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35 Mizzen Dr Barnegat, NJ	3.0	2.5	1358	$2,750	$2.03	0d	1	0.05mi
27 Potomac Ct Barnegat, NJ	3.0	2.0	1130	$2,950	$2.61	4d	1	0.54mi
81 Schooner Ave Barnegat, NJ	3.0	1.0	1179	$2,500	$2.12	3d	1	0.64mi
79 Lexington Blvd Barnegat, NJ	3.0	1.5	1130	$2,950	$2.61	5d	1	0.66mi
165 Village Dr Barnegat, NJ	3.0	1.0	1218	$2,500	$2.05	0d	1	0.67mi
67 Deer Run Dr S Barnegat, NJ	3.0	2.5	1682	$3,400	$2.02	26d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $369,000 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   status $369,000 Active Under Contract 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $369,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $369,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-05-22
   listed $369,000 Active 852-char remark

   Show marketing remark (852 chars)

   Welcome to this fabulous 4 Bedroom home located in the heart of Barnegat Twp. Here you will find many upgrades. The tile floor on the 1st level is heated with 3 zones for added comfort and has been installed on a diagonal. The Kitchen is newer and has gorgeous granite countertops along with a large walk-in pantry. Stainless appliances are an added benefit with a double self-cleaning oven. All outlets and switches have been upgraded to Decora. You are definitely going to love the amount of closet space here. All bedroom closets have built in storage. The yard is huge and there is plenty of room for a pool if you would like to add one. Carpet on the stairs and upstairs hallway is brand new. Hot water heater has been replaced this year. Outdoor lighting is all on timers. Schedule your appointment to view this home today before its too late.

6. 2026-05-22
   listed $369,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (852 chars)

   Welcome to this fabulous 4 Bedroom home located in the heart of Barnegat Twp. Here you will find many upgrades. The tile floor on the 1st level is heated with 3 zones for added comfort and has been installed on a diagonal. The Kitchen is newer and has gorgeous granite countertops along with a large walk-in pantry. Stainless appliances are an added benefit with a double self-cleaning oven. All outlets and switches have been upgraded to Decora. You are definitely going to love the amount of closet space here. All bedroom closets have built in storage. The yard is huge and there is plenty of room for a pool if you would like to add one. Carpet on the stairs and upstairs hallway is brand new. Hot water heater has been replaced this year. Outdoor lighting is all on timers. Schedule your appointment to view this home today before its too late.

7. 1987-11-23
   soldstatus $87,900
8. 1986-09-17
   soldstatus $63,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,091 · $341/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,640 · $553/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,548/yr (+$212/mo · 62.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,054
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,670
• − Property taxes: −$4,091
• − Insurance: −$1,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,044
• − Management: −$3,044
• − Depreciation: −$10,735
• Taxable loss: −$5,375
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,290
• After-tax cash flow: $2,196/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barnegat Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3416470
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $63,645
• Composite: 31.15/100
• National rank: #6059
• State rank: #285 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Ocean Acres

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #15187

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 25,936
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 26,866
• Household income: $93,584
• Rent vs Own: 11.4% rent · 88.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 384.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -204.01%
• Current HPI: 344.3189
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+485.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $369,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-22 Listed $369,000 MOMLS
• 1987-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $87,900 Public Records
• 1986-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,091 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.