10839 W Michael Dr · Peoria, AZ 85373

$149,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · Manufactured public records · 117 Days on market

Built 1970 6,299 sqft lot $239/sqft · 23% above area Est $193k · 23% under $28/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Remodeled and Move-in Ready! This home is light and bright. Large Living room and Dining room. Kitchen has white shaker cabinets, undermount sink, pantry w/ pull-outs. Breakfast bar has beautiful pendant lighting, Block wall fencing in backyard. Gate in Front makes this more secure. Covered Carport on one side is extra-long to park 2 - 3 vehicles. Nice Work Shed in backyard. Room for trailer, RV or room to add more square footage. Water line was replaced to house with Copper line. Newer LED Lighting. Stackable washer and dryer included. Lake Pleasant Estate Community features access to Pool w/ shaded ramadas and Rec Room and unique advantage of owning the land beneath your home. Some furniture included.

Key facts

• Undermount sink
• Covered carport
• Pantry w pull-outs

Tags

• WHITE SHAKER CABINETS
• UNDERMOUNT SINK
• PANTRY W PULL-OUTS
• BREAKFAST BAR
• BLOCK WALL FENCING
• COVERED CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $244 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.3% in Peoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#14 in AZ, #3,603 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D, health & safety F.
• Peoria Unified School District (4237) (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #64 of 249 in AZ (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $149k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,590 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.01%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $193,339
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -22.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19063 N Mark Ln	0.19mi	1/1.0 (-1)	672 (+8%)	16mo	$125,000	$186	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-8,670
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $12,218
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85373

• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $366/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,142

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $328	-5% $286	+0% $244	+5% $202	+10% $160
Rent	-10% $129	-5% $187	+0% $244	+5% $301	+10% $358
Rate	-1.0pp $319	-0.5pp $282	base $244	+0.5pp $205	+1.0pp $166

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10134 W Mohawk Ln Peoria, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	827	$1,299	$1.57	44d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,000 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,000 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 99 DOM
15. 2026-04-06
    price $159,000 715-char remark

    Show marketing remark (715 chars)

    Remodeled and Move-in Ready! This home is light and bright. Large Living room and Dining room. Kitchen has white shaker cabinets, undermount sink, pantry w/ pull-outs. Breakfast bar has beautiful pendant lighting, Block wall fencing in backyard. Gate in Front makes this more secure. Covered Carport on one side is extra-long to park 2 - 3 vehicles. Nice Work Shed in backyard. Room for trailer, RV or room to add more square footage. Water line was replaced to house with Copper line. Newer LED Lighting. Stackable washer and dryer included. Lake Pleasant Estate Community features access to Pool w/ shaded ramadas and Rec Room and unique advantage of owning the land beneath your home. Some furniture included.

16. 2026-03-26
    status Active 715-char remark

    Show marketing remark (715 chars)

    Remodeled and Move-in Ready! This home is light and bright. Large Living room and Dining room. Kitchen has white shaker cabinets, undermount sink, pantry w/ pull-outs. Breakfast bar has beautiful pendant lighting, Block wall fencing in backyard. Gate in Front makes this more secure. Covered Carport on one side is extra-long to park 2 - 3 vehicles. Nice Work Shed in backyard. Room for trailer, RV or room to add more square footage. Water line was replaced to house with Copper line. Newer LED Lighting. Stackable washer and dryer included. Lake Pleasant Estate Community features access to Pool w/ shaded ramadas and Rec Room and unique advantage of owning the land beneath your home. Some furniture included.

17. 2026-03-23
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 715-char remark

    Show marketing remark (715 chars)

    Remodeled and Move-in Ready! This home is light and bright. Large Living room and Dining room. Kitchen has white shaker cabinets, undermount sink, pantry w/ pull-outs. Breakfast bar has beautiful pendant lighting, Block wall fencing in backyard. Gate in Front makes this more secure. Covered Carport on one side is extra-long to park 2 - 3 vehicles. Nice Work Shed in backyard. Room for trailer, RV or room to add more square footage. Water line was replaced to house with Copper line. Newer LED Lighting. Stackable washer and dryer included. Lake Pleasant Estate Community features access to Pool w/ shaded ramadas and Rec Room and unique advantage of owning the land beneath your home. Some furniture included.

18. 2026-03-11
    price $175,000 715-char remark

    Show marketing remark (715 chars)

    Remodeled and Move-in Ready! This home is light and bright. Large Living room and Dining room. Kitchen has white shaker cabinets, undermount sink, pantry w/ pull-outs. Breakfast bar has beautiful pendant lighting, Block wall fencing in backyard. Gate in Front makes this more secure. Covered Carport on one side is extra-long to park 2 - 3 vehicles. Nice Work Shed in backyard. Room for trailer, RV or room to add more square footage. Water line was replaced to house with Copper line. Newer LED Lighting. Stackable washer and dryer included. Lake Pleasant Estate Community features access to Pool w/ shaded ramadas and Rec Room and unique advantage of owning the land beneath your home. Some furniture included.

19. 2026-02-21
    listed $199,000 Active 715-char remark

    Show marketing remark (715 chars)

    Remodeled and Move-in Ready! This home is light and bright. Large Living room and Dining room. Kitchen has white shaker cabinets, undermount sink, pantry w/ pull-outs. Breakfast bar has beautiful pendant lighting, Block wall fencing in backyard. Gate in Front makes this more secure. Covered Carport on one side is extra-long to park 2 - 3 vehicles. Nice Work Shed in backyard. Room for trailer, RV or room to add more square footage. Water line was replaced to house with Copper line. Newer LED Lighting. Stackable washer and dryer included. Lake Pleasant Estate Community features access to Pool w/ shaded ramadas and Rec Room and unique advantage of owning the land beneath your home. Some furniture included.

20. 2018-02-22
    soldstatus $72,000 Closed 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    This is a great opportunity for a first time home buyer or investor with $850 potential rent per month. This property is larger than tax records show and is very spacious inside. This property is in a great location near Arrowhead Mall and plenty of shopping. Community also features access to pool, rec room and children's play park. Come see it today!

21. 2018-02-22
    soldstatus $72,000

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    This is a great opportunity for a first time home buyer or investor with $850 potential rent per month. This property is larger than tax records show and is very spacious inside. This property is in a great location near Arrowhead Mall and plenty of shopping. Community also features access to pool, rec room and children's play park. Come see it today!

22. 2018-02-14
    status Pending 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    This is a great opportunity for a first time home buyer or investor with $850 potential rent per month. This property is larger than tax records show and is very spacious inside. This property is in a great location near Arrowhead Mall and plenty of shopping. Community also features access to pool, rec room and children's play park. Come see it today!

23. 2018-02-03
    listed $75,000 Active 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    This is a great opportunity for a first time home buyer or investor with $850 potential rent per month. This property is larger than tax records show and is very spacious inside. This property is in a great location near Arrowhead Mall and plenty of shopping. Community also features access to pool, rec room and children's play park. Come see it today!

24. 2006-12-01
    soldstatus $59,000
25. 2006-11-30
    soldstatus $59,000
26. 2006-11-28
    historical
27. 2006-10-25
    listed $64,900
28. 2001-06-11
    soldstatus $42,500
29. 2001-06-11
    soldstatus $42,500
30. 2000-04-07
    soldstatus $42,000
31. 2000-02-27
    historical
32. 2000-01-24
    listed $47,000
33. 1992-09-30
    soldstatus $23,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $366 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $983 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$617/yr (+$51/mo · 168.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥113°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,405
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$366
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $492
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$118
• After-tax cash flow: $2,808/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Peoria Unified School District (4237)
• NCES district ID: 0406250
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $60,171
• Composite: 34.62/100
• National rank: #5152
• State rank: #64 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Peoria

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #3603

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A Cost of living C- Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Peoria, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 206,687
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 20,254
• Household income: $72,063
• Rent vs Own: 11.6% rent · 88.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 383.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -327.80%
• Current HPI: 261.3749
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+591.3% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $159,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $175,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-21 Listed $199,000 ARMLS
• 2018-02-22 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2018-02-22 Sold (MLS) $72,000 ARMLS
• 2018-02-14 Pending — ARMLS
• 2018-02-03 Listed $75,000 ARMLS
• 2006-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records
• 2006-11-30 Sold (MLS) $59,000 ARMLS
• 2006-11-28 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2006-10-25 Listed $64,900 ARMLS
• 2001-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records
• 2001-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records
• 2000-04-07 Sold (MLS) $42,000 ARMLS
• 2000-02-27 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2000-01-24 Listed $47,000 ARMLS
• 1992-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $366 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.