15342 Dobson Ave · South Holland, IL 60473

$200,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,686 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1966 6,893 sqft lot Est $201k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUD FORECLOSURE SALE! CASE#137281522 SOLD"AS IS". INSURED STATUS:IN. HUD ELEC AUCTION. USE HUD KEY. DISCLSR INCLD LBP, PROP COND REPORT, BIDDING & PROCEDURES SEE SHOWING INSTR. L/D 2.27.09

Key facts

• Outdoor living area
• Galley style kitchen
• 6,893 sq ft lot

Tags

• DEDICATED EATING SPACE
• GALLEY STYLE KITCHEN
• PARTIALLY FINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• VERSATILE RECREATION ROOM
• DETACHED 2 CAR GARAGE
• OUTDOOR LIVING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $274 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#167 in IL, #3,071 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Thornton Township High School (math 7% / reading 7%, grade F, #605 of 693 statewide, top 87%, 1,628 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $200k implies a 231% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price.

Recommended offer $200,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.87%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,634
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15203 Waterman Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (-8%)	0mo	$280,000	$181	67
15134 Hastings Dr	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,634 (-3%)	6mo	$122,100	$75	66
15547 Drexel Ave	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,600 (-5%)	2mo	$187,500	$117	65
636 E 156th Pl	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,781 (+6%)	1mo	$220,000	$124	59
15615 Avalon Ave	0.43mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,785 (+6%)	8mo	$179,900	$101	59
15612 Langley Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,652 (-2%)	6mo	$170,000	$103	58
15115 Meadow Ln	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,487 (-12%)	4mo	$220,000	$148	55
15230 Meadow Ln	0.29mi	4/2.5	1,452 (-14%)	5mo	$117,000	$81	55
15305 Oak St	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,840 (+9%)	1mo	$254,900	$139	53
15923 Woodlawn East Ave	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,609 (-5%)	5mo	$325,000	$202	52
15100 University Ave	0.32mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,500 (-11%)	8mo	$123,500	$82	51
1012 E 159th Pl	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-5%)	1mo	$190,000	$119	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-14,671
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $10,876
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60473

• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,618 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$662 /mo · $7,945/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$550
• Net cashflow: $274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,271

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15231 Hastings Dr Dolton, IL	4.0	1.5	1487	$2,146	$1.44	7d	1	0.29mi
15509 Park Ln South Holland, IL	4.0	1.5	1200	$3,400	$2.83	24d	1	0.60mi
15509 Park Ln South Holland, IL	4.0	1.5	1200	$3,400	$2.83	7d	1	0.60mi
15707 Dante Dr South Holland, IL	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,950	$1.64	3d	1	0.64mi
14916 Langley Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	1.5	1418	$2,500	$1.76	24d	1	0.69mi
16001 Avalon Ave South Holland, IL	3.0	2.0	1136	$3,330	$2.93	6d	1	0.84mi
14716 Dorchester Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,800	$2.24	19d	1	0.90mi
660 Clyde Ave Calumet City, IL	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,750	$1.25	3d	1	1.07mi
14505 Minerva Ave Dolton, IL	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,500	$1.19	24d	1	1.07mi
15400 Merrill Ave South Holland, IL	4.0	2.0	1508	$3,330	$2.21	22d	1	1.07mi
409 Madison Ave Unit 2 Calumet City, IL	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,795	$1.50	4d	1	1.10mi
1429 Kasten Dr Dolton, IL	3.0	1.0	1600	$2,500	$1.56	1d	1	1.13mi
16246 Dobson Ave South Holland, IL	3.0	2.0	1250	$3,170	$2.54	2d	1	1.13mi
14433 Woodlawn Ave Dolton, IL	4.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	19d	1	1.14mi
659 Paxton Ave Calumet City, IL	3.0	2.0	1255	$2,461	$1.96	10d	1	1.22mi
14305 Irving Ave Unit 2 Dolton, IL	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	24d	1	1.41mi
1860 State St Calumet City, IL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	17d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $200,000 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $200,000 Active (Private) 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,945 · $662/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,945 · $662/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,415
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$7,945
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,513
• − Management: −$2,513
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $422
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$101
• After-tax cash flow: $3,185/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornton Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1738970
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 8% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,392
• Composite: 6.92/100
• National rank: #9976
• State rank: #594 of 620 in IL

Livability — South Holland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #3071

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Holland, IL
• City population: 21,407
• Population (ZIP): 21,407

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.36%
• Current HPI: 201.2479
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+25.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Coming Soon $200,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-06-25 Sold (MLS) $60,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-14 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-16 Price Changed $113,600 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-11-28 Price Changed $127,800 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-24 Listed $142,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $159,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2023): $7,945 · +18.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.