16 Main St · Saranac Lake, NY 12913

$409,000

None bd · None ba · 4,364 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 337 Days on market

Built 1935 10,018 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

4 unit residential property that has been renovated and restored to a worry free property for many years to come. Two of the units are 1 bedroom with an additional bonus space and two of the units are 2 bedroom units. All units are well equipt with dishwashers, washer dryer hook ups and having individual outside deck spaces. Plenty of parking spaces for the tenants and stress free living with all new siding, soffits, entry doors and a boiler. Many tenants have been residents for many years and the history of vacancy is almost nil. A great opportunity to live in one unit and the other three units will pay the mortgage. Please give 24 hour notice in respect of the tenants.

Key facts

• Outside deck spaces
• New siding
• Dishwashers

Tags

• DISHWASHERS
• WASHER DRYER HOOK UPS
• OUTSIDE DECK SPACES
• NEW SIDING
• NEW SOFFITS
• NEW ENTRY DOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2×1bd/1ba + 2×2bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $409k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $646 ($8k/yr) — positive. Per door: $162/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $401k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $360k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.5% in Saranac Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#274 in NY, #4,341 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities D+.
• Saranac Lake Central School District (town): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #497 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $115k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 337 days — a 12% lower offer ($360k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $409k implies a 718% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $359,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 337 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.77%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $86,953
• Equity at exit: $180,350

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $255,936
• Equity at exit: $275,208

Cash invested: $114,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12913

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 34.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,007 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,145
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,450/yr
• Insurance: −$170
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$841
• Net cashflow: $646

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,189

Max offer price $409,000

Occupancy floor 79%

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	1	1	$1,954
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,054
Total (4 units)			$4,007

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,250
• Closing costs: $12,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-06-24
   listed $409,000 Active 679-char remark

   Show marketing remark (679 chars)

   4 unit residential property that has been renovated and restored to a worry free property for many years to come. Two of the units are 1 bedroom with an additional bonus space and two of the units are 2 bedroom units. All units are well equipt with dishwashers, washer dryer hook ups and having individual outside deck spaces. Plenty of parking spaces for the tenants and stress free living with all new siding, soffits, entry doors and a boiler. Many tenants have been residents for many years and the history of vacancy is almost nil. A great opportunity to live in one unit and the other three units will pay the mortgage. Please give 24 hour notice in respect of the tenants.

2. 1995-10-26
   soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,450 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,681 · $390/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,231/yr (+$186/mo · 91.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,084
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,910
• − Property taxes: −$2,450
• − Insurance: −$2,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,847
• − Management: −$3,847
• − Depreciation: −$11,898
• Taxable income: $1,087
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$261
• After-tax cash flow: $7,493/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saranac Lake Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625740
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,434
• Composite: 35.73/100
• National rank: #4856
• State rank: #497 of 590 in NY

Livability — Saranac Lake

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #274
• US rank: #4341

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute C+ Cost of living A- Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,128

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,758 people
• By 2030: 35,697 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 32,697 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 29,248 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 22,641 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 16,602 · -54.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Hispanic / Latino 1% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 17% Slovak 5% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+5.0 2016: R+3.4 2012: D+15.0 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.85%
• Current HPI: 308.7086
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+718.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-24 Listed $409,000 ACVMLS
• 1995-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,450 · -9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.