110 Kimberling Shores Ln #5 · Kimberling City, MO 65686

$149,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Condo · 101 Days on market

Built 2008 Good condition $135/sqft · 29% below area Est $211k · 29% under $387/mo HOA · 25% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Opportunity to have a condo with a 1 car garage where you can take walks to the lake. This neighborhood is just across the bridge. With a pool and a club house for you to enjoy. Don't miss this opportunity.

Key facts

• Walks to the lake
• Pool
• Club house

Tags

• WALKS TO THE LAKE
• POOL
• CLUB HOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $149k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $119k (19.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 1.7% in Kimberling City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#162 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Blue Eye R-V (rural): math 41% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #107 of 324 in MO (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blue Eye Elem. (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #481 of 1,115 statewide, top 46%, 198 students, 48% FRL); Blue Eye Middle (math 42% / reading 42%, grade D-, #149 of 391 statewide, top 41%, 170 students, 51% FRL); Blue Eye High (math 54% / reading 64%, grade C+, #35 of 521 statewide, top 8%, 178 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 291 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 191 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stone County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,347 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.89%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $210,766
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -29.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-36,935
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-47,908
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65686

• Home prices YoY: -31.2%
• Active inventory: 291
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,534 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$186 /mo · $2,235/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$387
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $-205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,793

Max offer price $119,347

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-102	-5% $-153	+0% $-205	+5% $-256	+10% $-308
Rent	-10% $-326	-5% $-266	+0% $-205	+5% $-144	+10% $-84
Rate	-1.0pp $-130	-0.5pp $-167	base $-205	+0.5pp $-244	+1.0pp $-283

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
275 Ozark Mountain Resort Dr Unit 51 Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	790	$1,450	$1.84	45d	1	0.41mi
225 Ozark Mountain Resort Dr #44 Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	45d	1	0.42mi
395 Ozark Mountain Resort Dr #60 Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	726	$1,400	$1.93	45d	1	0.50mi
11 Kimberling Blvd Unit A Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	45d	1	1.21mi
3 Kimberling Blvd Unit A Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	45d	1	1.44mi
2 C St Unit B Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	45d	1	1.47mi
4 C St Unit B Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	45d	1	1.47mi
6 C St Unit A Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	45d	1	1.47mi
8 C St Unit B Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	45d	1	1.47mi
10 C St Unit A Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	45d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $387 · $4,644/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $149,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,000 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 79 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,000 Active 78 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    price $155,000 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Great Opportunity to have a condo with a 1 car garage where you can take walks to the lake. This neighborhood is just across the bridge. With a pool and a club house for you to enjoy. Don't miss this opportunity.

19. 2026-03-13
    listed $160,000 Active 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Great Opportunity to have a condo with a 1 car garage where you can take walks to the lake. This neighborhood is just across the bridge. With a pool and a club house for you to enjoy. Don't miss this opportunity.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,407
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,235
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,473
• − Management: −$1,473
• − HOA: −$4,644
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$4,843
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,162
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained condo with a 1-car garage offers a great opportunity to enjoy a lakeside lifestyle with a pool and clubhouse.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and marketability
• Both Add smart thermostat — Saves energy and appeals to buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and marketability ↑
• Both Add smart thermostat — Saves energy and appeals to buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Eye R-V
• NCES district ID: 2905280
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,591
• Composite: 37.08/100
• National rank: #4500
• State rank: #107 of 324 in MO

Livability — Kimberling City

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #8879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,487

Population outlook (Stone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,147 people
• By 2030: 26,405 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 22,762 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 19,706 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 14,742 · -47.6%
• By 2100: 10,832 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Stone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.4) · D 18.9% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: -37.3pp · 2024: -61.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.4 2020: R+61.1 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+49.2 2008: R+37.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.17%
• Current HPI: 198.5699
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $155,000 SOMO
• 2026-03-13 Listed $160,000 SOMO