110 Kimberling Shores Ln #5 · Kimberling City, MO 65686

$149,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Condo · 195 Days on market

Built 2008 Good condition $135/sqft · 43% below area Est $259k · 43% under $387/mo HOA · 26% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Opportunity to have a condo with a 1 car garage where you can take walks to the lake. This neighborhood is just across the bridge. With a pool and a club house for you to enjoy. Don't miss this opportunity.

Key facts

• Walks to the lake
• Pool
• Club house

Tags

• WALKS TO THE LAKE
• POOL
• CLUB HOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $149k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-252 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $113k (24.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (1.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.0% in Kimberling City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#162 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Blue Eye R-V (rural): math 41% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #107 of 324 in MO (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blue Eye Elem. (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #481 of 1,115 statewide, top 46%, 198 students, 48% FRL); Blue Eye Middle (math 42% / reading 42%, grade D-, #149 of 391 statewide, top 41%, 170 students, 51% FRL); Blue Eye High (math 54% / reading 64%, grade C+, #35 of 521 statewide, top 8%, 178 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 387 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 191 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stone County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,567 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.24%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $259,190
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -42.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
110 Kimberling Shores Ln #1	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,104 (0%)	4mo	$139,900	$127	97
40 Kimberling #1	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,364 (+24%)	0mo	$220,000	$161	72
1201 Paradise Landing Rd	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,278 (+16%)	2mo	$450,000	$352	63
1007 Rocky Shore Ter	0.51mi	2/2.0	891 (-19%)	2mo	$189,900	$213	50
1304 Rocky Shore Ter #4	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,300 (+18%)	4mo	$279,000	$215	46
1307 Rocky Shore Ter	0.54mi	2/2.0	891 (-19%)	5mo	$174,500	$196	46
393 Anchors Point Ln #470	1.10mi	2/2.0	940 (-15%)	0mo	$325,000	$346	40
80 Kimberling Crossing Dr #227	1.14mi	2/2.0	880 (-20%)	3mo	$189,900	$216	38
11863 State Highway 13 #121	1.27mi	2/2.0	841 (-24%)	5mo	$219,000	$260	36
361 Anchors Point Ln #302	1.19mi	2/2.0	911 (-18%)	6mo	$240,000	$263	35
100 Getaway Cir #155	1.22mi	2/2.0	833 (-24%)	6mo	$185,000	$222	35
100 Getaway Cir Unit 161 1& 2	1.18mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,301 (+18%)	5mo	$294,900	$227	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-39,920
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-54,354
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 0 active · 1 under contract

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 65686

• Home prices YoY: -31.2%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,475 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$186 /mo · $2,235/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$387
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $-252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,793

Max offer price $112,567

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-149	-5% $-200	+0% $-252	+5% $-303	+10% $-355
Rent	-10% $-368	-5% $-310	+0% $-252	+5% $-194	+10% $-135
Rate	-1.0pp $-177	-0.5pp $-214	base $-252	+0.5pp $-290	+1.0pp $-330

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
275 Ozark Mountain Resort Dr Unit 51 Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	790	$1,450	$1.84	139d	1	0.41mi
225 Ozark Mountain Resort Dr #44 Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	139d	1	0.42mi
225 Ozark Mountain Resort Dr #43 Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	726	$1,600	$2.20	1d	1	0.42mi
395 Ozark Mountain Resort Dr Unit Cabin 60 Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	726	$1,500	$2.07	1d	1	0.50mi
395 Ozark Mountain Resort Dr #60 Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	726	$1,400	$1.93	139d	1	0.50mi
11 Kimberling Blvd Unit A Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	139d	1	1.21mi
3 Kimberling Blvd Unit A Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	139d	1	1.44mi
2 C St Unit B Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,550	$1.36	2d	1	1.47mi
5 Kimberling Blvd Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,550	$1.36	2d	1	1.47mi
2 C St Unit A Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,550	$1.36	6d	1	1.47mi
4 C St Unit B Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,450	$1.27	2d	1	1.47mi
6 C St Unit A Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,450	$1.27	2d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail $387/mo · $4,644/yr condo

• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $149,000 Active 195 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $149,000 Active 194 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $149,000 Active 192 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $149,000 Active 191 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $149,000 Active 190 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 189 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 188 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 187 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 186 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $149,000 Active 185 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $149,000 Active 184 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $149,000 Active 183 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $149,000 Active 182 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $149,000 Active 176 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $149,000 Active 175 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    remarks 418-char remark
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 174 DOM
18. 2026-09-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 173 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $149,000 Active 169 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $149,000 Active 168 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $149,000 Active 167 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $149,000 Active 166 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $149,000 Active 165 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $149,000 Active 164 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $149,000 Active 163 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $149,000 Active 162 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $149,000 Active 161 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $149,000 Active 160 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $149,000 Active 159 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $149,000 Active 158 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $149,000 Active 157 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $149,000 Active 156 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $149,000 Active 155 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $149,000 Active 154 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $149,000 Active 153 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $149,000 Active 152 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $149,000 Active 151 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $149,000 Active 150 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $149,000 Active 149 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $149,000 Active 148 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 147 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $149,000 Active 146 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $149,000 Active 145 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $149,000 Active 144 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 143 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 140 DOM
47. 2026-07-29
    days on market $149,000 Active 138 DOM
48. 2026-07-27
    days on market $149,000 Active 136 DOM
49. 2026-07-25
    days on market $149,000 Active 134 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $149,000 Active 133 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,695
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,235
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,416
• − Management: −$1,416
• − HOA: −$4,644
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$5,441
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,306
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,520–$16,560 screening

This well-maintained condo with a 1-car garage offers a great opportunity to enjoy a lakeside lifestyle with a pool and clubhouse.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and marketability ↑
• Both Add smart thermostat — Saves energy and appeals to buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Blue Eye Elem. F MO #481/1,115 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Blue Eye Middle D- MO #149/391 Nat'l #5,398/14,009 High Blue Eye High C+ MO #35/521 Nat'l #3,588/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Eye R-V
• NCES district ID: 2905280
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,591
• Composite: 37.08/100
• National rank: #4500
• State rank: #107 of 324 in MO

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Kimberling City

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #8879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Stone · 28,147 people
• Population (ZIP): 4,487
• Household income: $56,644
• Rent vs Own: 17.0% rent · 83.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

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Population outlook (Stone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,147 people
• By 2030: 26,405 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 22,762 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 19,706 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 14,742 · -47.6%
• By 2100: 10,832 · -61.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 0%

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Political lean MEDSL · Stone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.4) · D 18.9% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: -37.3pp · 2024: -61.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.4 2020: R+61.1 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+49.2 2008: R+37.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.17%
• Current HPI: 198.5699
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $155,000 SOMO
• 2026-03-13 Listed $160,000 SOMO