1139 Hidden Fawn · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$119,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 163 Days on market

Built 1972 10,497 sqft lot $122/sqft · 36% below area Est $186k · 36% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2-Bedroom Home with Modern Upgrades on a Level Lot, fully remodeled and move-in ready! Updates include brand-new plumbing, flooring, and windows, giving the home a fresh and modern feel. Situated on a spacious, level lot, this property offers endless potential perfect as a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. Conveniently located near shopping, schools, and just minutes from the lake and nearby rivers, it's the ideal spot to enjoy everything the area has to offer. Previously used as a rental, this home is ready for its next chapter!

Key facts

• Fully remodeled
• Brand-new flooring
• Brand-new windows

Tags

• FULLY REMODELED
• BRAND-NEW PLUMBING
• BRAND-NEW FLOORING
• BRAND-NEW WINDOWS
• LEVEL LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $480 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $826 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 20% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.20%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $185,870
• List price: $119,500
• Delta: -35.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
474 & 466 Forest Hill St	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	896 (-9%)	11mo	$190,000	$212	56
706 Flintstone Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,064 (+9%)	16mo	$60,000	$56	54
220 Sir Arthur Way	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+8%)	22mo	$149,500	$142	47
250 Deer Vly	0.66mi	3/2.0	902 (-8%)	18mo	$140,000	$155	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $6,372
• Equity at exit: $17,818

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $26,276
• Equity at exit: $10,332

Cash invested: $33,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,653 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,792/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $480

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,045

Max offer price $119,500

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,875
• Closing costs: $3,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
270 Ridgerock Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	43d	1	0.56mi
324 Ridgerock Dr Unit 1 Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	24d	1	0.58mi
127 Quail Run St Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	940	$1,400	$1.49	43d	1	0.79mi
668 Creekside Dr Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,225	$1.25	43d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,500 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,500 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,500 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,500 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,500 Active 158 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,500 Active 154 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,500 Active 153 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,500 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $119,500 Active 149 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,500 Active 148 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,500 Active 147 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,500 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,500 Active 145 DOM
14. 2026-05-18
    price $119,500 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    Charming 2-Bedroom 2 bath Home with Modern Upgrades on a Level Lot, fully remodeled and move-in ready! Updates include brand-new plumbing, flooring, and windows, giving the home a fresh and modern feel. Situated on a spacious, level lot, this property offers endless potential—perfect as a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. Conveniently located near shopping, schools, and just minutes from the lake and nearby rivers, it’s the ideal spot to enjoy everything the area has to offer. Previously used as a rental, this home is ready for its next chapter!

15. 2026-05-18
    price $119,500 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    Charming 2-Bedroom 2 bath Home with Modern Upgrades on a Level Lot, fully remodeled and move-in ready! Updates include brand-new plumbing, flooring, and windows, giving the home a fresh and modern feel. Situated on a spacious, level lot, this property offers endless potential—perfect as a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. Conveniently located near shopping, schools, and just minutes from the lake and nearby rivers, it’s the ideal spot to enjoy everything the area has to offer. Previously used as a rental, this home is ready for its next chapter!

16. 2026-04-13
    status Active 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    Charming 2-Bedroom 2 bath Home with Modern Upgrades on a Level Lot, fully remodeled and move-in ready! Updates include brand-new plumbing, flooring, and windows, giving the home a fresh and modern feel. Situated on a spacious, level lot, this property offers endless potential—perfect as a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. Conveniently located near shopping, schools, and just minutes from the lake and nearby rivers, it’s the ideal spot to enjoy everything the area has to offer. Previously used as a rental, this home is ready for its next chapter!

17. 2026-03-11
    price $121,900 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    Charming 2-Bedroom Home with Modern Upgrades on a Level Lot, fully remodeled and move-in ready! Updates include brand-new plumbing, flooring, and windows, giving the home a fresh and modern feel. Situated on a spacious, level lot, this property offers endless potential perfect as a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. Conveniently located near shopping, schools, and just minutes from the lake and nearby rivers, it's the ideal spot to enjoy everything the area has to offer. Previously used as a rental, this home is ready for its next chapter!

18. 2026-03-10
    status Back on Market 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    Charming 2-Bedroom Home with Modern Upgrades on a Level Lot, fully remodeled and move-in ready! Updates include brand-new plumbing, flooring, and windows, giving the home a fresh and modern feel. Situated on a spacious, level lot, this property offers endless potential perfect as a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. Conveniently located near shopping, schools, and just minutes from the lake and nearby rivers, it's the ideal spot to enjoy everything the area has to offer. Previously used as a rental, this home is ready for its next chapter!

19. 2025-12-15
    historical
20. 2025-12-04
    status Active
21. 2025-11-13
    historical 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    Charming 2-Bedroom Home with Modern Upgrades on a Level Lot, fully remodeled and move-in ready! Updates include brand-new plumbing, flooring, and windows, giving the home a fresh and modern feel. Situated on a spacious, level lot, this property offers endless potential perfect as a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. Conveniently located near shopping, schools, and just minutes from the lake and nearby rivers, it's the ideal spot to enjoy everything the area has to offer. Previously used as a rental, this home is ready for its next chapter!

22. 2025-10-01
    price $95,000 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    Charming 2-Bedroom Home with Modern Upgrades on a Level Lot, fully remodeled and move-in ready! Updates include brand-new plumbing, flooring, and windows, giving the home a fresh and modern feel. Situated on a spacious, level lot, this property offers endless potential perfect as a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. Conveniently located near shopping, schools, and just minutes from the lake and nearby rivers, it's the ideal spot to enjoy everything the area has to offer. Previously used as a rental, this home is ready for its next chapter!

23. 2025-09-30
    price $95,000 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    Charming 2-Bedroom 2 bath Home with Modern Upgrades on a Level Lot, fully remodeled and move-in ready! Updates include brand-new plumbing, flooring, and windows, giving the home a fresh and modern feel. Situated on a spacious, level lot, this property offers endless potential—perfect as a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. Conveniently located near shopping, schools, and just minutes from the lake and nearby rivers, it’s the ideal spot to enjoy everything the area has to offer. Previously used as a rental, this home is ready for its next chapter!

24. 2025-09-30
    price $95,000

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    Charming 2-Bedroom 2 bath Home with Modern Upgrades on a Level Lot, fully remodeled and move-in ready! Updates include brand-new plumbing, flooring, and windows, giving the home a fresh and modern feel. Situated on a spacious, level lot, this property offers endless potential—perfect as a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. Conveniently located near shopping, schools, and just minutes from the lake and nearby rivers, it’s the ideal spot to enjoy everything the area has to offer. Previously used as a rental, this home is ready for its next chapter!

25. 2025-08-08
    listed $99,900 Active 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    Charming 2-Bedroom 2 bath Home with Modern Upgrades on a Level Lot, fully remodeled and move-in ready! Updates include brand-new plumbing, flooring, and windows, giving the home a fresh and modern feel. Situated on a spacious, level lot, this property offers endless potential—perfect as a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. Conveniently located near shopping, schools, and just minutes from the lake and nearby rivers, it’s the ideal spot to enjoy everything the area has to offer. Previously used as a rental, this home is ready for its next chapter!

26. 2025-08-06
    listed $99,900 New 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    Charming 2-Bedroom Home with Modern Upgrades on a Level Lot, fully remodeled and move-in ready! Updates include brand-new plumbing, flooring, and windows, giving the home a fresh and modern feel. Situated on a spacious, level lot, this property offers endless potential perfect as a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. Conveniently located near shopping, schools, and just minutes from the lake and nearby rivers, it's the ideal spot to enjoy everything the area has to offer. Previously used as a rental, this home is ready for its next chapter!

27. 2025-08-06
    listed $99,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    Charming 2-Bedroom Home with Modern Upgrades on a Level Lot, fully remodeled and move-in ready! Updates include brand-new plumbing, flooring, and windows, giving the home a fresh and modern feel. Situated on a spacious, level lot, this property offers endless potential perfect as a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. Conveniently located near shopping, schools, and just minutes from the lake and nearby rivers, it's the ideal spot to enjoy everything the area has to offer. Previously used as a rental, this home is ready for its next chapter!

28. 2025-07-15
    historical
29. 2025-07-15
    historical
30. 2025-04-24
    price $105,000
31. 2025-01-17
    listed $124,900 New
32. 2025-01-08
    listed $124,900 Active
33. 2021-11-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,831
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,694
• − Property taxes: −$1,792
• − Insurance: −$598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,587
• − Management: −$1,587
• − Depreciation: −$3,476
• Taxable income: $4,098
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$984
• After-tax cash flow: $4,773/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $119,500 LERA
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $119,500 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $121,900 LERA
• 2026-03-10 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-12-15 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-12-04 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $95,000 LERA
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $95,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $95,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-08-08 Listed $99,900 Unlock MLS
• 2025-08-06 Listed $99,900 LERA
• 2025-08-06 Listed $99,900 CTXMLS
• 2025-07-15 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-07-15 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $105,000 LERA
• 2025-01-17 Listed $124,900 LERA
• 2025-01-08 Listed $124,900 CTXMLS
• 2021-11-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $156 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.