41 Gower Ln · Elizabeth, MS 38756

$69,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,177 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 187 Days on market

Built 2021

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The front and back porch can go with the home.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Back porch
• Built 2021

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• BACK PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $384 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Leland School District (town): math 5% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #117 of 130 in MS (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at -36% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.53%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $13,199
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $43,307
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38756

• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,232 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,322/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $384

Break-even live

Break-even rent $746

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $423	-5% $404	+0% $384	+5% $364	+10% $344
Rent	-10% $286	-5% $335	+0% $384	+5% $432	+10% $481
Rate	-1.0pp $419	-0.5pp $402	base $384	+0.5pp $366	+1.0pp $347

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2025-11-25
   listed $69,900 Active 46-char remark

   Show marketing remark (46 chars)

   The front and back porch can go with the home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,322 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,322 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,779
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$2,322
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,182
• − Management: −$1,182
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $3,794
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$911
• After-tax cash flow: $3,695/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leland School District
• NCES district ID: 2802610
• Math proficiency: 5% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $30,773
• Composite: 7.75/100
• National rank: #9936
• State rank: #117 of 130 in MS

Livability — Elizabeth

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,568

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,424 people
• By 2030: 38,061 · -8.1%
• By 2040: 31,752 · -23.3%
• By 2050: 26,394 · -36.3%
• By 2075: 17,180 · -58.5%
• By 2100: 12,936 · -68.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 54% White 39% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+35.0) · D 67.0% · R 32.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 34.7pp · 2024: 35.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+35.0 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.4 2012: D+42.7 2008: D+34.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.23%
• Current HPI: 51.6345
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-25 Listed $69,900 Greenville Area MLS

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,322 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.