13265 W Watson Ln · Surprise, AZ 85379

$325,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,525 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 2002 6,091 sqft lot $92/sqft · 38% below area Est $527k · 38% under $49/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Special! This property at 13265 W Watson Lane presents a rare value-add opportunity in the highly sought-after Surprise area. The home needs repairs and updating but offers excellent potential for the right buyer. Conveniently located near 60 and Loop 303, providing quick access to major employers, and amenities. Perfect for investors or cash buyers looking to renovate and capture strong equity growth. Don't miss this opportunity!

Key facts

• 6,091 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2002

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $754 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $325k).
• Recommended offer: $306k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 296 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 16 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $305,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.94%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $527,155
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -38.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13997 N 135th Dr	0.36mi	5/3.0	3,474 (-1%)	1mo	$575,000	$166	76
13665 W Evans Dr	0.53mi	5/3.5	3,540 (+0%)	0mo	$550,000	$155	72
14368 N 136th Ln	0.55mi	5/3.5	3,540 (+0%)	7mo	$520,000	$147	66
13619 W Watson Ln	0.46mi	5/4.0	3,817 (+8%)	1mo	$524,000	$137	64
13563 W Boca Raton Rd	0.46mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,474 (-1%)	5mo	$540,000	$155	63
13580 W Boca Raton Rd	0.47mi	6/3.0 (+1)	3,474 (-1%)	9mo	$590,000	$170	59
13898 N 136th Ln	0.59mi	5/2.5	3,382 (-4%)	5mo	$530,600	$157	56
13588 W Boca Raton Rd	0.49mi	5/3.0	3,172 (-10%)	3mo	$540,000	$170	54
14667 N 138th Ave	0.69mi	5/3.5	3,285 (-7%)	7mo	$540,000	$164	49
13636 W Calavar Rd	0.52mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,350 (-5%)	10mo	$590,000	$176	48
12729 W Calavar Rd	0.71mi	5/3.0	3,086 (-12%)	0mo	$476,500	$154	42
13617 W Crocus Dr	0.46mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,091 (-12%)	10mo	$460,000	$149	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-10,955
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $27,322
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85379

• Home prices YoY: -13.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 296
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,515 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,613/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$49
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$738
• Net cashflow: $754

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,561

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13568 W Redfield Rd Surprise, AZ	6.0	3.0	3474	$3,200	$0.92	43d	1	0.43mi
15946 N Naegel Dr Surprise, AZ	5.0	3.0	2824	$4,800	$1.70	43d	1	1.11mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $49 · $588/yr

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 495-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $325,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $350,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $350,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $350,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $350,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $350,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $350,000 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $350,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-04-11
    listed $350,000 Active 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Investor Special! This property at 13265 W Watson Lane presents a rare value-add opportunity in the highly sought-after Surprise area. The home needs repairs and updating but offers excellent potential for the right buyer. Conveniently located near 60 and Loop 303, providing quick access to major employers, and amenities. Perfect for investors or cash buyers looking to renovate and capture strong equity growth. Don't miss this opportunity!

16. 2025-12-29
    historical
17. 2025-05-13
    listed $410,000 Active
18. 2023-04-08
    historical
19. 2023-04-05
    listed $429,900 Active
20. 2019-12-17
    soldstatus $306,000 Closed
21. 2019-12-16
    soldstatus $306,000
22. 2019-11-19
    status Pending
23. 2019-10-14
    listed $309,900 Active
24. 2019-10-09
    soldstatus $306,000 Closed
25. 2019-09-24
    status Pending
26. 2019-09-24
    listed $309,900 Active
27. 2019-09-23
    soldstatus $306,000 Closed
28. 2019-08-13
    status Pending
29. 2019-08-05
    price $309,900
30. 2019-07-10
    price $315,000
31. 2019-06-25
    price $320,000
32. 2019-05-28
    listed $330,000 Active
33. 2019-01-02
    historical
34. 2018-11-17
    price $270,000
35. 2018-10-22
    listed $280,000 Active
36. 2017-06-02
    soldstatus $245,000 Closed
37. 2017-06-02
    soldstatus $245,000
38. 2017-05-26
    status Pending
39. 2017-05-18
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
40. 2017-04-05
    price $254,990
41. 2017-04-05
    price $254,900
42. 2017-02-09
    price $263,900
43. 2017-01-12
    listed $264,900 Active
44. 2008-09-17
    historical
45. 2008-06-17
    listed $179,900
46. 2008-06-17
    historical
47. 2008-01-18
    listed $199,000
48. 2007-07-12
    historical
49. 2007-06-01
    listed $299,000
50. 2005-09-19
    soldstatus $333,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,613 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,145 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: +$532/yr (+$44/mo · 33.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$1,613
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,375
• − Management: −$3,375
• − HOA: −$588
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable income: $3,948
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$947
• After-tax cash flow: $8,099/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 51,035
• Household income: $110,616
• Rent vs Own: 24.6% rent · 75.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 736.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 13% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.15%
• Current HPI: 232.0007
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.21%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+52.8% since first listed

49 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $350,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-29 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-05-13 Listed $410,000 ARMLS
• 2023-04-08 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-04-05 Listed $429,900 ARMLS
• 2019-12-17 Sold (MLS) $306,000 ARMLS
• 2019-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $306,000 Public Records
• 2019-11-19 Pending — ARMLS
• 2019-10-14 Listed $309,900 ARMLS
• 2019-10-09 Sold (MLS) $306,000 ARMLS
• 2019-09-24 Pending — ARMLS
• 2019-09-24 Listed $309,900 ARMLS
• 2019-09-23 Sold (MLS) $306,000 ARMLS
• 2019-08-13 Pending — ARMLS
• 2019-08-05 Price Changed $309,900 ARMLS
• 2019-07-10 Price Changed $315,000 ARMLS
• 2019-06-25 Price Changed $320,000 ARMLS
• 2019-05-28 Listed $330,000 ARMLS
• 2019-01-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2018-11-17 Price Changed $270,000 ARMLS
• 2018-10-22 Listed $280,000 ARMLS
• 2017-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $245,000 Public Records
• 2017-06-02 Sold (MLS) $245,000 ARMLS
• 2017-05-26 Pending — ARMLS
• 2017-05-18 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2017-04-05 Price Changed $254,990 ARMLS
• 2017-04-05 Price Changed $254,900 ARMLS
• 2017-02-09 Price Changed $263,900 ARMLS
• 2017-01-12 Listed $264,900 ARMLS
• 2008-09-17 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-06-17 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-06-17 Listed $179,900 ARMLS
• 2008-01-18 Listed $199,000 ARMLS
• 2007-07-12 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-06-01 Listed $299,000 ARMLS
• 2005-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $333,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-31 Sold (MLS) $333,000 ARMLS
• 2005-05-10 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-04-30 Listed $325,000 ARMLS
• 2004-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-20 Sold (MLS) $215,000 ARMLS
• 2004-07-22 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-05-19 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-05-12 Listed $220,000 ARMLS
• 2004-03-12 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-03-12 Listed $219,000 ARMLS
• 2004-01-24 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-01-24 Listed $219,900 ARMLS
• 2003-12-01 Listed $229,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,613 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.