2403 Poplar St · Lynchburg, VA 24502

$119,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 948 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1905 5,092 sqft lot $126/sqft · 10% below area Est $137k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice bungalow with updates and 2 spacious bedrooms, one level living. New plumbing, flooring, kitchen and bath. Will rent between $700-$750 month.

Key facts

• Two new windows
• Walkable to downtown
• New trim

Tags

• WALKABLE TO DOWNTOWN
• FULL INTERIOR REPAINT
• NEW TRIM
• REPLACED FLOORING
• TWO NEW WINDOWS
• FRESHLY PAINTED FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal and shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Built area above grade: 975
• Exterior features: Garden; Deck; Front porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Window air conditioning
• Interior features: Garden; Deck and porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup; Laundry closet; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $288 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sandusky Middle (math 29% / reading 52%, grade F, #303 of 342 statewide, top 89%, 568 students, 96% FRL); Heritage High (math 32% / reading 77%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 1,073 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 61% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 318 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $120k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,303 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.29%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $136,709
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -12.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
217 Race St	0.26mi	2/1.0	936 (-1%)	2mo	$130,000	$139	84
2802 Loraine St	0.26mi	2/1.0	987 (+4%)	15mo	$35,000	$35	68
909 Virginia St	0.25mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,064 (+12%)	6mo	$171,000	$161	58
136 Jubilee Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	912 (-4%)	10mo	$187,000	$205	57
1725 Otey St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	961 (+1%)	4mo	$120,000	$125	55
2013 Poplar St	0.33mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,040 (+10%)	4mo	$176,000	$169	54
305 Winston Ridge Rd	0.65mi	2/2.0	858 (-10%)	0mo	$175,000	$204	50
1911 Bransford St	0.55mi	1/1.0 (-1)	880 (-7%)	9mo	$135,000	$153	49
1534 Otey St. St	0.67mi	2/1.0	1,031 (+9%)	7mo	$169,900	$165	48
1114 Knight St	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,085 (+14%)	0mo	$43,600	$40	40
218 Winston Ridge Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (+14%)	5mo	$190,000	$176	31
1113 17th Street St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,081 (+14%)	15mo	$215,400	$199	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,658
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $36,857
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24502

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,289 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $620/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $925

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1500 Main St Lynchburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	1182	$1,600	$1.35	13d	6	0.56mi
1810 Laurel St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	720	$995	$1.38	43d	1	0.60mi
1308 Clay St Apt 2 Lynchburg, VA	1.0	1.0	750	$995	$1.33	21d	1	0.72mi
1217 Church St Unit 210 Lynchburg, VA	1.0	1.0	635	$1,150	$1.81	13d	1	0.77mi
51 11th St Lynchburg, VA	1.0	1.0	608	$1,295	$2.13	13d	1	0.91mi
801 Church St Unit 6 Lynchburg, VA	1.0	1.0	675	$1,200	$1.78	43d	1	1.08mi
801 Church St Unit 8 Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	875	$1,850	$2.11	13d	1	1.08mi
900 Polk St Unit A Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1100	$895	$0.81	13d	1	1.08mi
723 Jefferson St Lynchburg, VA	1.0	1.0	723	$1,095	$1.51	13d	1	1.12mi
1106 Pierce St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1018	$875	$0.86	21d	1	1.14mi
1401 Kemper St Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1118	$707	$0.63	21d	6	1.17mi
2205 Easley Ave Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	870	$1,400	$1.61	43d	1	1.18mi
612 Commerce St Lynchburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	716	$1,250	$1.74	13d	2	1.20mi
2518 Carter St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1091	$1,500	$1.37	43d	1	1.29mi
2336 Aragon St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1042	$995	$0.95	13d	1	1.37mi
2210 Haden St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	784	$1,050	$1.34	43d	1	1.45mi
317 Polk St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	925	$1,650	$1.78	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,900 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,900 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,900 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,900 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,900 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-04-27
    listed $119,900 Active 710-char remark
18. 2025-11-25
    price $95,000
19. 2025-10-30
    listed $99,900 Active
20. 2022-08-24
    soldstatus $58,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    Nice bungalow with updates and 2 spacious bedrooms, one level living. New plumbing, flooring, kitchen and bath. Will rent between $700-$750 month.

21. 2022-08-04
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    Nice bungalow with updates and 2 spacious bedrooms, one level living. New plumbing, flooring, kitchen and bath. Will rent between $700-$750 month.

22. 2022-07-11
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    Nice bungalow with updates and 2 spacious bedrooms, one level living. New plumbing, flooring, kitchen and bath. Will rent between $700-$750 month.

23. 2022-07-08
    listed $64,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    Nice bungalow with updates and 2 spacious bedrooms, one level living. New plumbing, flooring, kitchen and bath. Will rent between $700-$750 month.

24. 2022-05-18
    status Pending
25. 2022-05-14
    listed $64,900 Active
26. 2006-01-05
    soldstatus $15,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $620 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $983 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$363/yr (+$30/mo · 58.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,467
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$620
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,237
• − Management: −$1,237
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $1,569
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$376
• After-tax cash flow: $3,078/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 41,979
• Household income: $68,872
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1774.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 19% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -222.79%
• Current HPI: 241.9041
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.11%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+654.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $119,900 LMLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $95,000 LMLS
• 2025-10-30 Listed $99,900 LMLS
• 2022-08-24 Sold (MLS) $58,000 LMLS
• 2022-08-04 Pending — LMLS
• 2022-07-11 Relisted — LMLS
• 2022-07-08 Listed $64,900 LMLS
• 2022-05-18 Pending — LMLS
• 2022-05-14 Listed $64,900 LMLS
• 2006-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $15,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $620 · +22.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.