813 Auk St Unit E4 · Kenai, AK 99611

$211,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 898 sqft · Condo public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1977 $235/sqft · at area comps Est $328k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Conveniently located condo in Kenai! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home spans three levels and features a private deck. HOA dues are approximately $400/month and include natural gas, water and sewer, exterior and grounds maintenance, plus trash and snow removal. Located within walking distance to local schools, the Oilers Ball Field, and the Kenai Golf Course.

Key facts

• Private deck
• Built 1977
• Listed 34 days

Tags

• PRIVATE DECK

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $211,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$328,436) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $211k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.7% in Kenai — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#38 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Kenai Peninsula Borough School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #8 of 21 in AK (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Kenai Peninsula Borough in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenai Peninsula County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 6% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $178,533 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.70%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $328,436
• List price: $211,000
• Delta: -35.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-39,480
• Equity at exit: $31,461

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-41,052
• Equity at exit: $18,243

Cash invested: $59,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99611

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,785 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,107
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $622/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$248
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,891

Max offer price $196,195

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,750
• Closing costs: $6,330
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashgaslandscapingsnow removal
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $211,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $211,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $211,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $211,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $211,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $211,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $211,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $211,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $211,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $211,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $211,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $211,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $211,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $211,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $211,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $211,000 Active 15 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    status Active 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Conveniently located condo in Kenai! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home spans three levels and features a private deck. HOA dues are approximately $400/month and include natural gas, water and sewer, exterior and grounds maintenance, plus trash and snow removal. Located within walking distance to local schools, the Oilers Ball Field, and the Kenai Golf Course.

18. 2026-05-15
    price $219,000 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Conveniently located condo in Kenai! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home spans three levels and features a private deck. HOA dues are approximately $400/month and include natural gas, water and sewer, exterior and grounds maintenance, plus trash and snow removal. Located within walking distance to local schools, the Oilers Ball Field, and the Kenai Golf Course.

19. 2026-04-22
    listed $200,000 Active 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Conveniently located condo in Kenai! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home spans three levels and features a private deck. HOA dues are approximately $400/month and include natural gas, water and sewer, exterior and grounds maintenance, plus trash and snow removal. Located within walking distance to local schools, the Oilers Ball Field, and the Kenai Golf Course.

20. 2024-04-30
    soldstatus Closed 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Conveniently located condo in Kenai! This 3 bedroom two bath is 3 stories and includes a private deck. HOA dues are $369 and include natural gas, water and sewer, grounds/exterior maintenance and trash and snow removal. Within walking distance to schools, the Oilers Ball Field and Kenai Golf Course.

21. 2024-04-30
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Conveniently located condo in Kenai! This 3 bedroom two bath is 3 stories and includes a private deck. HOA dues are $369 and include natural gas, water and sewer, grounds/exterior maintenance and trash and snow removal. Within walking distance to schools, the Oilers Ball Field and Kenai Golf Course.

22. 2024-03-14
    status Pending 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Conveniently located condo in Kenai! This 3 bedroom two bath is 3 stories and includes a private deck. HOA dues are $369 and include natural gas, water and sewer, grounds/exterior maintenance and trash and snow removal. Within walking distance to schools, the Oilers Ball Field and Kenai Golf Course.

23. 2024-02-24
    listed $119,500 Active 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Conveniently located condo in Kenai! This 3 bedroom two bath is 3 stories and includes a private deck. HOA dues are $369 and include natural gas, water and sewer, grounds/exterior maintenance and trash and snow removal. Within walking distance to schools, the Oilers Ball Field and Kenai Golf Course.

24. 2018-08-29
    soldstatus
25. 2017-06-17
    listed $73,179
26. 2015-12-22
    listed $79,000
27. 2015-10-08
    listed $88,000
28. 2015-04-21
    soldstatus
29. 2015-02-03
    listed $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $622 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,566 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$945/yr (+$79/mo · 152.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,424
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,819
• − Property taxes: −$622
• − Insurance: −$1,055
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,714
• − Management: −$1,714
• − HOA: −$2,976
• − Depreciation: −$6,138
• Taxable loss: −$4,614
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,107
• After-tax cash flow: $102/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenai Peninsula Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,704
• Composite: 36.71/100
• National rank: #4594
• State rank: #8 of 21 in AK

Livability — Kenai

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #14592

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kenai, AK
• Population (ZIP): 16,028

Population outlook (Kenai Peninsula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,736 people
• By 2030: 66,260 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 70,449 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 74,414 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 87,508 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 95,360 · +49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Two or more races 14% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Portuguese 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenai Peninsula

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.50%
• Current HPI: 169.2848
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+265.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $219,000 AKMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $200,000 AKMLS
• 2024-04-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-04-30 Sold (MLS) — AKMLS
• 2024-03-14 Pending — AKMLS
• 2024-02-24 Listed $119,500 AKMLS
• 2018-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-06-17 Listed $73,179 AKMLS
• 2015-12-22 Listed $79,000 AKMLS
• 2015-10-08 Listed $88,000 AKMLS
• 2015-04-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-02-03 Listed $60,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $622 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.