4816 Palmer Ave · Baltimore, MD 21215

$59,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 644 sqft · Townhouse public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1924 2,522 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

RENOVATION OPPORTUNITY! Great opportunity to renovate and resell or renovate and add to your rental portfolio. 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath with an unfinished basement. Sold As-Is! Buyer responsible for clearing any vacant property notice after settlement if one exists.

Key facts

• Built 1924
• Listed 13 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: End-of-row townhouse; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Brick construction; Other foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Estimated year built
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Tidal water: No

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Electric cooling; Hot water: Other
• Interior features: Estimated living area; Basement (unfinished)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $694 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Cap rate 20.2% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.63%
• DSCR: 3.21
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $33,668
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.95×
• Total profit: $82,939
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21215

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 351
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,398 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $861/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $694

Break-even live

Break-even rent $520

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $728	-5% $711	+0% $694	+5% $677	+10% $660
Rent	-10% $583	-5% $638	+0% $694	+5% $749	+10% $804
Rate	-1.0pp $724	-0.5pp $709	base $694	+0.5pp $678	+1.0pp $662

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3016 Thorndale Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	5d	14	0.03mi
4910 Poe Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	750	$990	$1.32	24d	1	0.46mi
4936 Lanier Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,370	$1.83	3d	5	0.53mi
3702 Hayward Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	640	$1,695	$2.65	24d	1	0.62mi
5447 Park Heights Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	663	$950	$1.43	16d	1	0.68mi
4037 Edgewood Rd Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	726	$1,100	$1.52	44d	1	1.00mi
5902 Cross Country Blvd Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	720	$1,575	$2.19	24d	1	1.07mi
5902 Cross Country Blvd Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	785	$1,699	$2.16	5d	6	1.07mi
4008 Hilton Rd Unit 1st Fl Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	44d	1	1.07mi
2001 W Cold Spring Ln Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1154	$3,505	$3.04	2d	31	1.16mi
5801 Western Run Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–2.0	835	$1,979	$2.37	2d	7	1.25mi
3600 Garrison Blvd Unit T2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	750	$1,149	$1.53	24d	1	1.35mi
4411 Falls Bridge Dr Unit L Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	700	$1,395	$1.99	44d	1	1.40mi
4412 La Plata Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	650	$1,534	$2.36	2d	12	1.41mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,900 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,900 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,900 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,900 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,900 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,900 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 268-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $59,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $861 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $861 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,778
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$861
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,342
• − Management: −$1,342
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $7,835
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,880
• After-tax cash flow: $6,444/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 52,229
• Household income: $51,587
• Rent vs Own: 45.2% rent · 54.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3644.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 17% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -318.58%
• Current HPI: 291.4926
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+100.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $59,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-01-24 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2018-12-11 Price Changed $18,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-11-11 Price Changed $19,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-10-31 Listed $22,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-09-26 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-09-26 Delisted — MRIS
• 2018-09-10 Price Changed $24,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-09-10 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2018-08-28 Price Changed $27,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-08-28 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2018-08-21 Listed — MRIS
• 2018-08-21 Listed $29,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1996-11-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 1995-08-23 Listed — MRIS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $861 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.