400 Cr 458 · Kirbyville, TX 75956

$54,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 26 Days on market

3.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bedroom, 1 bath older manufactured home with a huge add-on needs lots of TLC. So much potential for someone willing to put in the effort. The huge covered back porch gives plenty of space for entertaining & relaxing. Sitting on a dead end county road with very little traffic. In the highly rated Kirbyville school district. It is fenced and cross fenced and has a shared pond. Appliances & window units will convey. 2nd bathroom has been removed but can be restored. CASH ONLY! Renovate this one or bring in a new one. The choice is yours. Shown by appointment only so call your favorite realtor and come take a look.

Key facts

• Shared pond
• Covered back porch
• 3 acre lot

Tags

• COVERED BACK PORCH
• FENCED AND CROSS FENCED
• SHARED POND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $54k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $525 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $54k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,133 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Kirbyville CISD (rural): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #274 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($373 loan paydown + $668 appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $53,190 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.69%
• DSCR: 2.86
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $35,145
• Equity at exit: $19,102

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.61×
• Total profit: $84,809
• Equity at exit: $25,909

Cash invested: $15,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75956

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,202 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$283
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,423/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $525

Break-even live

Break-even rent $537

Max offer price $54,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,500
• Closing costs: $1,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 637-char remark

   Show marketing remark (637 chars)

   This 3 bedroom, 1 bath older manufactured home with a huge add-on needs lots of TLC. So much potential for someone willing to put in the effort. The huge covered back porch gives plenty of space for entertaining & relaxing. Sitting on a dead end county road with very little traffic. In the highly rated Kirbyville school district. It is fenced and cross fenced and has a shared pond. Appliances & window units will convey. 2nd bathroom has been removed but can be restored. CASH ONLY! Renovate this one or bring in a new one. The choice is yours. Shown by appointment only so call your favorite realtor and come take a look.

2. 2026-05-05
   historical 588-char remark

   Show marketing remark (588 chars)

   This 3 bedroom, 1 bath older manufactured with a huge add-on sitting on 3 acres is in need of lots of TLC. Great potential for anyone willing to put in the effort. The big, covered back porch is a great place for entertaining or just chilling. Fenced & cross fenced & a shared pond. Not much traffic on this dead-end county road. Appliances & window units will convey. 2nd bathroom has been removed but can be restored. CASH ONLY sale. Rehab this one or bring in a new one, The infa-structure is here. Shown by appointment only so call your favorite realtor to schedule.

3. 2026-04-11
   listed $54,000 Active 637-char remark

   Show marketing remark (637 chars)

   This 3 bedroom, 1 bath older manufactured home with a huge add-on needs lots of TLC. So much potential for someone willing to put in the effort. The huge covered back porch gives plenty of space for entertaining & relaxing. Sitting on a dead end county road with very little traffic. In the highly rated Kirbyville school district. It is fenced and cross fenced and has a shared pond. Appliances & window units will convey. 2nd bathroom has been removed but can be restored. CASH ONLY! Renovate this one or bring in a new one. The choice is yours. Shown by appointment only so call your favorite realtor and come take a look.

4. 2026-04-10
   listed $54,000 588-char remark

   Show marketing remark (588 chars)

   This 3 bedroom, 1 bath older manufactured with a huge add-on sitting on 3 acres is in need of lots of TLC. Great potential for anyone willing to put in the effort. The big, covered back porch is a great place for entertaining or just chilling. Fenced & cross fenced & a shared pond. Not much traffic on this dead-end county road. Appliances & window units will convey. 2nd bathroom has been removed but can be restored. CASH ONLY sale. Rehab this one or bring in a new one, The infa-structure is here. Shown by appointment only so call your favorite realtor to schedule.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,423 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,423 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,424
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,025
• − Property taxes: −$1,423
• − Insurance: −$270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,154
• − Management: −$1,154
• − Depreciation: −$1,571
• Taxable income: $5,828
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,399
• After-tax cash flow: $4,905/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kirbyville CISD
• NCES district ID: 4825710
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $40,141
• Composite: 38.14/100
• National rank: #4269
• State rank: #274 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kirbyville

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1133
• US rank: #20020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,085

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,986 people
• By 2030: 32,965 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 30,908 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 28,893 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 24,828 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 19,987 · -41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.5% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+48.4 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Current HPI: 161.736
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-05-05 Delisted — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $54,000 BBOR
• 2026-04-10 Listed $54,000 Deep East Texas MLS

Property tax history

+15.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,423 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.