10651 Road 753 · Bogue Chitto, MS 39350

$140,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,489 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1971 5.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3 bedroom/1.5 Bath country home situated on 5 acres with scenic views and peaceful surroundings. This inviting home offers a comfortable layout with abundant natural light and a spacious sunroom -perfect for relaxing and enjoying stunning sunset views. The 1.5 bath setup includes potential to easily convert into two full baths. Outside, the acreage provides plenty of space for gardening, recreation, or animals. Enjoy quiet country living with room to grow and make it your own!

Key facts

• Quiet country living
• 5 acres
• Spacious sunroom

Tags

• 5 ACRES
• SCENIC VIEWS
• SPACIOUS SUNROOM
• QUIET COUNTRY LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $47 ($562/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.9% in Bogue Chitto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#353 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Neshoba County School District (town): math 58% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #11 of 130 in MS (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Neshoba County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Neshoba County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,558 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.43%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-19,769
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-13,638
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39350

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,116 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $504/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,056

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $140,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-04-01
    listed $144,500 Active 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Charming 3 bedroom/1.5 Bath country home situated on 5 acres with scenic views and peaceful surroundings. This inviting home offers a comfortable layout with abundant natural light and a spacious sunroom -perfect for relaxing and enjoying stunning sunset views. The 1.5 bath setup includes potential to easily convert into two full baths. Outside, the acreage provides plenty of space for gardening, recreation, or animals. Enjoy quiet country living with room to grow and make it your own!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $504 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,106 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$602/yr (+$50/mo · 119.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,387
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$504
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,071
• − Management: −$1,071
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$1,874
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$450
• After-tax cash flow: $1,012/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Neshoba County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803060
• Math proficiency: 58% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,180
• Composite: 43.28/100
• National rank: #3043
• State rank: #11 of 130 in MS

Livability — Bogue Chitto

• Score: 45/100
• State rank: #353
• US rank: #26644

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 23,949

Population outlook (Neshoba County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,648 people
• By 2030: 28,078 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 26,782 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 25,184 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 20,989 · -26.7%
• By 2100: 16,576 · -42.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 24% Native American 20% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Neshoba

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.9) · D 24.1% · R 75.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -44.7pp · 2024: -50.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.9 2020: R+43.2 2016: R+47.4 2012: R+43.5 2008: R+44.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.97%
• Current HPI: 133.8009
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $144,500 EMR

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $504 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.