2007 Edgemont Pl · Sienna, TX 77459

$439,989

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,394 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 2020 9,766 sqft lot $184/sqft · 7% below area Est $474k · 7% under $132/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this stunning single story home perfectly situated on a spacious corner lot in the Golf Course community of Sienna. This beautifully designed home offers 4 bedrooms, 3 FULL bathrooms, a Private Study, a gorgeous kitchen featuring a Large Island, abundant cabinetry, tons of counter space flowing seamlessly into the Family Room where large windows fill the space with natural light & a cozy fireplace creates a warm and inviting atmosphere. The Primary suite is designed for relaxation and offers an ensuite bathroom with a large walk in shower, soaking tub, dual sinks and large walk-in closet. Step outside to enjoy the covered patio, perfect for outdoor dining, entertaining or relaxing overlooking the backyard. Zoned to Ridge Point High School and walking distance to Sawmill Club, Park, & a Lazy River Pool! Sienna offers 5 resort style pools, parks, tennis, golf, pickleball, gyms and MORE! Call us TODAY FOR A PRIVATE SHOWING!

Key facts

• Gorgeous kitchen
• Covered patio
• Large island

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• PRIVATE STUDY
• GORGEOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• COZY FIREPLACE
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $440k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-455 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $360k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $412k (6.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $360k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL); Ridge Point H S (math 61% / reading 69%, grade B, #198 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 3,170 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 35% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1229 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $359,539 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.44%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $474,102
• List price: $439,989
• Delta: -7.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2006 Laurelwood Trl	0.03mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,408 (+1%)	5mo	$399,900	$166	88
10751 Kingston Spg	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,472 (+3%)	1mo	$424,000	$172	62
10723 Kingston Spring Dr	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,525 (+6%)	1mo	$449,000	$178	59
1422 Watermont Dr	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,545 (+6%)	0mo	$449,900	$177	58
2027 Orchard Rose Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,737 (+14%)	2mo	$554,900	$203	57
1427 Crest Dale Ln	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,513 (+5%)	6mo	$474,900	$189	56
1411 Watermont Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,504 (+5%)	6mo	$474,900	$190	55
10519 Lantana Pass	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,743 (+15%)	6mo	$464,999	$170	55
1411 Crest Dale Ln	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,504 (+5%)	6mo	$449,900	$180	55
10502 William Park Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,350 (-2%)	6mo	$420,000	$179	52
10847 Texas Rose Dr	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,159 (-10%)	1mo	$375,000	$174	48
1418 Watermont Dr	0.68mi	4/3.5	2,694 (+12%)	2mo	$499,900	$186	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-86,837
• Equity at exit: $92,278

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-134,983
• Equity at exit: $85,472

Cash invested: $123,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1229
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,123 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax from tax record: −$1,090 /mo · $13,081/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$132
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$866
• Net cashflow: $-455

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,700

Max offer price $359,539

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-206	-5% $-331	+0% $-455	+5% $-580	+10% $-704
Rent	-10% $-781	-5% $-618	+0% $-455	+5% $-293	+10% $-130
Rate	-1.0pp $-234	-0.5pp $-344	base $-455	+0.5pp $-569	+1.0pp $-685

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,997
• Closing costs: $13,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	45d	1	0.73mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	24d	1	1.47mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	0d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $132 · $1,584/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $439,989 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $439,989 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $439,989 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $439,989 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $439,989 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $439,989 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $439,989 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $439,989 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 953-char remark

   Show marketing remark (953 chars)

   Welcome to this stunning single story home perfectly situated on a spacious corner lot in the Golf Course community of Sienna. This beautifully designed home offers 4 bedrooms, 3 FULL bathrooms, a Private Study, a gorgeous kitchen featuring a Large Island, abundant cabinetry, tons of counter space flowing seamlessly into the Family Room where large windows fill the space with natural light & a cozy fireplace creates a warm and inviting atmosphere. The Primary suite is designed for relaxation and offers an ensuite bathroom with a large walk in shower, soaking tub, dual sinks and large walk-in closet. Step outside to enjoy the covered patio, perfect for outdoor dining, entertaining or relaxing overlooking the backyard. Zoned to Ridge Point High School and walking distance to Sawmill Club, Park, & a Lazy River Pool! Sienna offers 5 resort style pools, parks, tennis, golf, pickleball, gyms and MORE! Call us TODAY FOR A PRIVATE SHOWING!

10. 2026-05-07
    status Pending 953-char remark

    Show marketing remark (953 chars)

    Welcome to this stunning single story home perfectly situated on a spacious corner lot in the Golf Course community of Sienna. This beautifully designed home offers 4 bedrooms, 3 FULL bathrooms, a Private Study, a gorgeous kitchen featuring a Large Island, abundant cabinetry, tons of counter space flowing seamlessly into the Family Room where large windows fill the space with natural light & a cozy fireplace creates a warm and inviting atmosphere. The Primary suite is designed for relaxation and offers an ensuite bathroom with a large walk in shower, soaking tub, dual sinks and large walk-in closet. Step outside to enjoy the covered patio, perfect for outdoor dining, entertaining or relaxing overlooking the backyard. Zoned to Ridge Point High School and walking distance to Sawmill Club, Park, & a Lazy River Pool! Sienna offers 5 resort style pools, parks, tennis, golf, pickleball, gyms and MORE! Call us TODAY FOR A PRIVATE SHOWING!

11. 2026-04-10
    price $439,989 953-char remark

    Show marketing remark (953 chars)

    Welcome to this stunning single story home perfectly situated on a spacious corner lot in the Golf Course community of Sienna. This beautifully designed home offers 4 bedrooms, 3 FULL bathrooms, a Private Study, a gorgeous kitchen featuring a Large Island, abundant cabinetry, tons of counter space flowing seamlessly into the Family Room where large windows fill the space with natural light & a cozy fireplace creates a warm and inviting atmosphere. The Primary suite is designed for relaxation and offers an ensuite bathroom with a large walk in shower, soaking tub, dual sinks and large walk-in closet. Step outside to enjoy the covered patio, perfect for outdoor dining, entertaining or relaxing overlooking the backyard. Zoned to Ridge Point High School and walking distance to Sawmill Club, Park, & a Lazy River Pool! Sienna offers 5 resort style pools, parks, tennis, golf, pickleball, gyms and MORE! Call us TODAY FOR A PRIVATE SHOWING!

12. 2026-03-06
    listed $449,989 Active 953-char remark

    Show marketing remark (953 chars)

    Welcome to this stunning single story home perfectly situated on a spacious corner lot in the Golf Course community of Sienna. This beautifully designed home offers 4 bedrooms, 3 FULL bathrooms, a Private Study, a gorgeous kitchen featuring a Large Island, abundant cabinetry, tons of counter space flowing seamlessly into the Family Room where large windows fill the space with natural light & a cozy fireplace creates a warm and inviting atmosphere. The Primary suite is designed for relaxation and offers an ensuite bathroom with a large walk in shower, soaking tub, dual sinks and large walk-in closet. Step outside to enjoy the covered patio, perfect for outdoor dining, entertaining or relaxing overlooking the backyard. Zoned to Ridge Point High School and walking distance to Sawmill Club, Park, & a Lazy River Pool! Sienna offers 5 resort style pools, parks, tennis, golf, pickleball, gyms and MORE! Call us TODAY FOR A PRIVATE SHOWING!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $13,081 · $1,090/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,081 · $1,090/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,479
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,646
• − Property taxes: −$13,081
• − Insurance: −$2,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,958
• − Management: −$3,958
• − HOA: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$12,800
• Taxable loss: −$12,749
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,060
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,405/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $439,989 HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $449,989 HARMLS

Property tax history

+34.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,081 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.