8922 Heatherside St · Houston, TX 77016

$95,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 164 Days on market

Built 1950 10,149 sqft lot $57/sqft · 60% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

AS-IS opportunity. Price reflects condition. Property offers strong potential for buyers willing to complete their own updates. Seller has disclosed known items and is selling in current condition. No HOA. Convenient Houston location.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 163 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $882 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 372 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,931/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 1297% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.80%
• DSCR: 2.77
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $234,959
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -59.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8722 Clarington St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-5%)	7mo	$289,000	$181	72
4819 Keeland St	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,627 (-3%)	8mo	$252,000	$155	63
4813 Keeland St	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,627 (-3%)	9mo	$252,000	$155	61
4815 Keeland St	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,627 (-3%)	10mo	$252,000	$155	61
4817 Keeland St	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,627 (-3%)	10mo	$252,000	$155	60
4525 Ireland St	0.61mi	3/2.5	1,627 (-3%)	6mo	$269,000	$165	58
4527 Ireland St	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,627 (-3%)	7mo	$269,000	$165	56
8910 Compton St	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,820 (+8%)	10mo	$195,000	$107	52
9811 Degas Ln	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,806 (+8%)	2mo	$260,000	$144	47
9705 Peachtree St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-14%)	6mo	$219,900	$152	46
5911 Rietta	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-11%)	9mo	$269,999	$180	45
7831 Wileyvale Rd	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,781 (+6%)	10mo	$275,000	$154	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.55×
• Total profit: $94,479
• Equity at exit: $76,406

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.41×
• Total profit: $223,680
• Equity at exit: $155,890

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,931 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,261/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $882

Break-even live

Break-even rent $814

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $936	-5% $909	+0% $882	+5% $855	+10% $829
Rent	-10% $730	-5% $806	+0% $882	+5% $959	+10% $1,035
Rate	-1.0pp $930	-0.5pp $906	base $882	+0.5pp $858	+1.0pp $833

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8639 Peachtree St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,750	$1.52	44d	1	0.25mi
9422 Sandra St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1461	$1,875	$1.28	44d	1	0.34mi
8508 Wileyvale Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1504	$1,650	$1.10	44d	1	0.37mi
7740 Wileyvale Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$3,000	$2.00	44d	1	0.85mi
7119 Bywood St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,795	$1.56	44d	1	0.88mi
9314 Sundown Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,695	$1.05	15d	1	0.96mi
4326 Plaag St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	44d	1	0.98mi
9320 Firnat St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,850	$0.97	8d	1	1.08mi
9324 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	22d	1	1.08mi
9328 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1902	$1,900	$1.00	44d	1	1.08mi
9326 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1902	$1,900	$1.00	44d	1	1.08mi
5609 Denmark St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,595	$1.13	44d	1	1.08mi
9410 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	44d	1	1.10mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 235 Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	44d	1	1.12mi
7418 Bywood St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	25d	1	1.23mi
10329 Wicklowe St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,400	$1.11	21d	1	1.30mi
10221 Bretton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	25d	1	1.35mi
7176 Parker Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	44d	1	1.37mi
3208 Bostic St Unit 1254540P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1603	$3,691	$2.30	2d	1	1.43mi
7601 Springdale St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,200	$0.98	15d	1	1.45mi
8326 Curry Rd Unit 1228882P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1614	$2,878	$1.78	8d	1	1.45mi
8318 Curry Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1558	$2,299	$1.48	44d	1	1.45mi
8322 Curry Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$2,500	$1.56	44d	1	1.45mi
8320 Curry Rd Unit 1391267P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1550	$5,134	$3.31	1d	1	1.46mi
8320 Curry Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1558	$8,950	$5.74	22d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $95,000 Active 153 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $100,000 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-01-05
    listed $100,000 Active 234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    AS-IS opportunity. Price reflects condition. Property offers strong potential for buyers willing to complete their own updates. Seller has disclosed known items and is selling in current condition. No HOA. Convenient Houston location.

13. 1990-07-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,261 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,738 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$477/yr (+$40/mo · 37.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,261
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,853
• − Management: −$1,853
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $9,639
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,313
• After-tax cash flow: $8,274/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-05 Listed $100,000 HARMLS
• 1990-07-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,261 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.