153 S 1st Street St · Santa Rosa, NM 88435

$120,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily · 25 Days on market

Built 1970 Fair condition 2.00 ac lot $133/sqft · 44% below area Est $216k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great in investment property overlooking the Pecos River.

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 25 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned R-1; Lot size approximately 2 acres

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity connected; Propane available; Public water; Public sewer (sewer available)
• Home design: Single-story residence; Faces east; Resale property
• Construction: Built with adobe, block, and stucco; Metal roof
• Exterior features: No special exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level (approx. 10' x 10')
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the main level (approx. 11' x 10')
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: One three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Pellet stove heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Main level primary bedroom; Metal windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $94 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (2.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (2.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#44 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Santa Rosa Consolidated Schools (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #28 of 29 in NM (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 91% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Guadalupe County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $116,902 (2.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.37%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,643
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -44.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $20,475
• Equity at exit: $53,957

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $64,521
• Equity at exit: $83,154

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88435

• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,169 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $177	-5% $136	+0% $94	+5% $53	+10% $11
Rent	-10% $2	-5% $48	+0% $94	+5% $140	+10% $187
Rate	-1.0pp $155	-0.5pp $125	base $94	+0.5pp $63	+1.0pp $32

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-22
   listed $120,000 Active 57-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,028
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,122
• − Management: −$1,122
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$829
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$199
• After-tax cash flow: $1,330/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This single-family home requires moderate renovations to improve its curb appeal and interior condition, which can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Kitchen cabinets — Old and outdated, need replacement.
• Moderate Appliances — Outdated and may need replacement.
• Moderate Countertops — Worn and may need replacement or resurfacing.
• Moderate Landscaping — Overgrown and needs trimming and landscaping improvements.
• Moderate Exterior paint — Some discoloration and wear, may need repainting.
• Moderate Windows — Standard windows, may need replacement or caulking for energy efficiency.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior walls — Improves curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Replacing carpet — Fresh carpet can make the home more appealing and increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping and trimming — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Replacing windows — Newer, energy-efficient windows can increase both resale and rental value and improve energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Old and outdated, need replacement.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Appliances · Outdated and may need replacement.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Countertops · Worn and may need replacement or resurfacing.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Landscaping · Overgrown and needs trimming and landscaping improvements.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Exterior paint · Some discoloration and wear, may need repainting.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Windows · Standard windows, may need replacement or caulking for energy efficiency.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$18,000–90,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior walls — Improves curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Replacing carpet — Fresh carpet can make the home more appealing and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and trimming — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Replacing windows — Newer, energy-efficient windows can increase both resale and rental value and improve energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa Consolidated Schools
• NCES district ID: 3502400
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $28,518
• Composite: 20.01/100
• National rank: #8665
• State rank: #28 of 29 in NM

Livability — Santa Rosa

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #12252

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Rosa, NM
• Population (ZIP): 3,413

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,865 people
• By 2030: 3,626 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 3,186 · -17.6%
• By 2050: 2,750 · -28.8%
• By 2075: 2,001 · -48.2%
• By 2100: 1,367 · -64.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 73% Two or more races 24% White 16% Native American 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 42%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 48.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.0pp toward R · 2008: 42.7pp · 2024: 0.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.7 2020: D+14.5 2016: D+20.5 2012: D+44.0 2008: D+42.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $120,000 Southwest MLS