404 Country Ln NE #404 · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$110,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,252 sqft · Condo · 77 Days on market

Built 1985 $325/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Short Sale. Welcome to your new home in this peaceful and well-maintained community! This spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom condo offers comfortable, low-maintenance living with all the amenities you need to relax and enjoy life. Step inside to find a bright and open floor plan with generous living space, a well-equipped kitchen, and private bedrooms on opposite sides for added privacy. The primary suite includes a full en-suite bathroom and ample closet space, while the second bedroom is perfect for guests, a home office, or family. Enjoy your morning coffee on the screened in back patio or take a short stroll to the community clubhouse, where you’ll find a sparkling swimming pool, soci

Key facts

• Private bedrooms
• Private fishing area
• Community clubhouse

Tags

• BRIGHT OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE BEDROOMS
• SCREENED IN BACK PATIO
• COMMUNITY CLUBHOUSE
• SPARKLING SWIMMING POOL
• PRIVATE FISHING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished unit; Condo land included; Floor: 1; Lot within city limits with paved streets, sidewalks, private maintained road
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $325; total annual fees $3,900; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA $325 (includes pool); association approval required; Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, tennis courts; Community features: clubhouse, community mailbox, deed restrictions, pool, tennis courts; buyer approval required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity available; Phone service available; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential condominium; Attached property; One level; Faces south
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built as part of a multi-unit building (Building #4)
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Front porch; Rear porch; Screened porch; Exterior lighting; Tennis courts; Gunite pool; Lake and pond access (Lake Buckeye)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Living room/dining room combo; Walk-in closets; Blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $346 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elbert Elementary School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,670 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 601 students, 62% FRL); Winter Haven Senior High School (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 2,467 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 491 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.47%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $2,789
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $25,144
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,811 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$325
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $346

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,374

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1331 11th St NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,190	$1.82	23d	1	0.10mi
1550 11th St NE Unit G3 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$1,325	$1.15	14d	1	0.17mi
1314 Evergreen Ct Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.5	1625	$1,940	$1.19	14d	1	0.45mi
1314 Evergreen Ct Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.5	1625	$1,890	$1.16	3d	1	0.45mi
1225 Evergreen Ct Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.5	1625	$1,940	$1.19	14d	1	0.47mi
1225 Evergreen Ct Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.5	1625	$1,890	$1.16	3d	1	0.47mi
1581 Lemon Ave Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1824	$2,176	$1.19	21d	1	0.51mi
1200 6th St NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,585	$1.29	14d	1	0.65mi
2007 9th St NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,750	$1.41	23d	1	0.65mi
4137 Roberta Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,875	$1.14	19d	1	0.71mi
850 17th Ter NE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	1206	$1,520	$1.26	3d	1	0.75mi
2144 Rose Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1857	$1,850	$1.00	3d	1	0.81mi
1743 Avenue C NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1016	$1,595	$1.57	3d	1	1.07mi
2451 Mary Jewett Cir NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1870	$2,400	$1.28	23d	1	1.14mi
1708 2nd St NW Unit B Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,525	$1.52	23d	1	1.16mi
235 Palmetto Ave NW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1024	$1,195	$1.17	23d	1	1.22mi
1830 2nd St NW Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,600	$1.49	23d	1	1.23mi
1705 3rd St NW Unit A Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,650	$1.12	23d	1	1.26mi
137 Woodland Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,000	$1.44	23d	1	1.27mi
407 Avenue A SE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,700	$1.51	23d	1	1.29mi
103 4th St SE Unit A Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	1014	$1,399	$1.38	3d	1	1.30mi
324 Avenue Y NE Unit B Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	904	$1,550	$1.71	23d	1	1.31mi
207 S Lake Silver Dr NW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,399	$1.25	23d	1	1.32mi
395 Quentin Ave NW Unit 397 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.5	912	$1,450	$1.59	23d	1	1.35mi
295 Lake Smart Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,100	$1.22	23d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $325 · $3,900/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $110,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-04-02
    listed $120,000 Active
16. 2026-03-24
    historical
17. 2026-02-06
    listed $150,000 Active
18. 2025-09-29
    historical
19. 2025-07-15
    listed $150,000 Active
20. 2022-12-05
    soldstatus $175,000 Closed
21. 2022-11-04
    status Pending
22. 2022-10-24
    listed $173,500 Active
23. 2019-04-29
    soldstatus $85,000 Sold
24. 2019-04-04
    status Pending
25. 2019-01-21
    listed $87,000 Active
26. 2013-10-15
    soldstatus $41,000
27. 2013-10-07
    listed $42,000
28. 2012-07-09
    soldstatus $42,000
29. 2011-08-01
    listed $48,900
30. 2010-08-18
    soldstatus $20,000
31. 2010-03-26
    listed $26,400
32. 2009-01-30
    historical
33. 2008-04-02
    listed $65,900
34. 2008-02-01
    historical
35. 2007-07-05
    listed $101,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,734
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,739
• − Management: −$1,739
• − HOA: −$3,900
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $2,794
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$671
• After-tax cash flow: $3,477/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1270.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+17.8% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Listed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-15 Listed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-05 Sold (MLS) $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-24 Listed $173,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-29 Sold (MLS) $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-21 Listed $87,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-15 Sold (MLS) $41,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-07 Listed $42,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-09 Sold (MLS) $42,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-01 Listed $48,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-08-18 Sold (MLS) $20,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-03-26 Listed $26,400 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-02 Listed $65,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-02-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-05 Listed $101,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid