2538 Swale Run · Colorado Springs, CO 80916

$73,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Other · 23 Days on market

Built 1979 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home offers plenty of space and a great opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch. The home features a functional layout with comfortable living areas and generously sized bedrooms. With a little cosmetic updating, this property has excellent potential as a primary residence, rental, or investment opportunity. The spacious interior provides a solid foundation to renovate and create a warm and inviting home. Sold as-is, making it a great option for investors, renovators, or buyers seeking an affordable property with upside potential.

Key facts

• Built 1979
• Listed 23 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $73k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $790 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $73k).
• Recommended offer: $72k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.3% vs local median 3.3% in Colorado Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#23 in CO, #2,639 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime F.
• Harrison School District No. 2 In The County Of El Paso An (urban): math 16% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #67 of 86 in CO (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 183 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,906 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (872 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $505 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $71,905 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.38%
• DSCR: 3.06
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $37,464
• Equity at exit: $10,885

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.56×
• Total profit: $93,267
• Equity at exit: $6,312

Cash invested: $20,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80916

• Home prices YoY: -27.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,639 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$383
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$91 /mo · $1,095/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $790

Break-even live

Break-even rent $639

Max offer price $73,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $840	-5% $815	+0% $790	+5% $765	+10% $740
Rent	-10% $661	-5% $725	+0% $790	+5% $855	+10% $919
Rate	-1.0pp $827	-0.5pp $809	base $790	+0.5pp $771	+1.0pp $752

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,250
• Closing costs: $2,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4537 Lamplighter Cir Colorado Springs, CO	2.0	1.5	1028	$1,195	$1.16	3d	1	0.69mi
2521 Astrozon Cir Unit 2523 Colorado Springs, CO	2.0	1.0	800	$1,395	$1.74	3d	1	0.70mi
2521 Astrozon Cir Unit 2525 Colorado Springs, CO	2.0	1.0	800	$1,395	$1.74	15d	1	0.70mi
4960 Fountain Ford Vw Colorado Springs, CO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	973	$2,311	$2.38	3d	28	0.88mi
1737 Ramjet PT Colorado Springs, CO	2.0	1.0–2.0	642	$1,784	$2.78	3d	42	0.93mi
4703 Goodwin Grv Colorado Springs, CO	2.0	1.0–2.0	605	$1,525	$2.52	3d	8	1.09mi
4221 Baytown Dr Unit 4221 Colorado Springs, CO	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,650	$1.55	22d	1	1.18mi
3178 Starlight Cir Colorado Springs, CO	2.0	1.5	928	$1,550	$1.67	24d	1	1.20mi
4325 Fountain Springs Grv Colorado Springs, CO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,658	$1.80	3d	5	1.24mi
3066 Starlight Cir Colorado Springs, CO	2.0	1.5	928	$1,300	$1.40	3d	1	1.27mi
3310 Cochran Dr Unit D Colorado Springs, CO	2.0	1.0	850	$1,249	$1.47	24d	1	1.28mi
3080 Starlight Cir Colorado Springs, CO	2.0	2.0	928	$1,650	$1.78	24d	1	1.28mi
1960 S Chelton Rd Colorado Springs, CO	3.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,385	$1.71	24d	1	1.29mi
4710 Spacewalk Way Colorado Springs, CO	2.0	2.0	1068	$2,049	$1.92	3d	1	1.30mi
3445 Cochran Dr Unit B Colorado Springs, CO	2.0	1.0	884	$1,400	$1.58	24d	1	1.30mi
3475 Cochran Dr Colorado Springs, CO	2.0	1.0	884	$1,250	$1.41	22d	1	1.31mi
4046 Mallette Hts Colorado Springs, CO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	737	$1,659	$2.25	3d	6	1.32mi
3480 Cochran Dr Colorado Springs, CO	2.0	1.0	884	$995	$1.13	22d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $73,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $73,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $73,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $73,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $73,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $73,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $73,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $73,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $73,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $73,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $73,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $73,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $73,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $73,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $73,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-26
    listed $73,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,663
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,089
• − Property taxes: −$1,095
• − Insurance: −$365
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,573
• − Management: −$1,573
• − Depreciation: −$2,124
• Taxable income: $8,845
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,123
• After-tax cash flow: $7,358/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home requires cosmetic updates, including painting and replacing countertops, to improve its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exposed wooden beams — Structural damage
• Major Concrete countertops — Aesthetic and durability issues

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace countertops with a more durable material — Improves functionality and resale value
• Both Install a backsplash — Enhances kitchen aesthetics and resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exposed wooden beams · Structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Concrete countertops · Aesthetic and durability issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace countertops with a more durable material — Improves functionality and resale value ↑
• Both Install a backsplash — Enhances kitchen aesthetics and resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison School District No. 2 In The County Of El Paso An
• NCES district ID: 0804530
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,242
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8333
• State rank: #67 of 86 in CO

Livability — Colorado Springs

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #23
• US rank: #2639

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living C- Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Colorado Springs, CO
• County: El Paso County · 689,348 people
• City population: 555,783
• Metro: Colorado Springs, CO
• Population (ZIP): 41,104
• Household income: $67,127
• Rent vs Own: 45.7% rent · 54.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2041.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 768,926 people
• By 2030: 815,739 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 903,489 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 981,204 · +27.6%
• By 2075: 1,155,542 · +50.3%
• By 2100: 1,202,070 · +56.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% White 37% Two or more races 18% Black 15% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.8) · D 43.8% · R 53.5% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.8 2020: R+10.8 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+21.4 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.77%
• Current HPI: 301.5415
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.36%
• Metro: Colorado Springs, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $73,000 FSBO.com