1405 E Edwards St · Springfield, IL 62703

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Other · 241 Days on market

6,250 sqft lot $83/sqft · 79% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 6,250 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 240 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $75 ($897/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.9% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in IL, #2,138 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Springfield SD 186 (urban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #438 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.2%/yr); 107 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 241 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $96k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 241 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.56%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $69,714
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: 79.30%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-8,438
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $30,862
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62703

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Rents YoY: 12.2%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,320 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$260 /mo · $3,122/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,225

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1104 S 11th St Unit A Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,000	$0.83	44d	1	0.48mi
1214 S 7th St Unit C Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,350	$1.12	44d	1	0.74mi
2213 E Adams St Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	44d	1	0.82mi
400 E Jefferson St Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	1420	$1,220	$0.86	44d	1	0.89mi
1929 E Spruce St Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,300	$0.87	44d	1	0.90mi
525 E Pine St Unit 4 Springfield, IL	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,200	$0.96	21d	1	0.96mi
525 E Pine St Springfield, IL	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,200	$0.96	44d	1	0.96mi
1600 S 6th St Unit 1 Springfield, IL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	21d	1	1.00mi
1726 S 6th St Springfield, IL	3.0	1.5	1408	$1,500	$1.07	44d	1	1.08mi
1213 E Ash St Springfield, IL	3.0	2.0	1861	$2,030	$1.09	21d	1	1.15mi
229 W Allen St Springfield, IL	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,305	$1.24	21d	1	1.22mi
1933 S 2nd St Springfield, IL	4.0	2.0	1433	$1,400	$0.98	44d	1	1.47mi
2257 S 10th St Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 241 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 240 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 239 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 238 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 237 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 235 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 234 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 232 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 231 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 230 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 229 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 226 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 225 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 224 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 223 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 222 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 221 DOM
18. 2026-02-02
    price $125,000
19. 2025-10-27
    price $144,000
20. 2025-10-16
    listed $145,000 Active
21. 2007-02-20
    soldstatus $96,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,122 · $260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,122 · $260/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,835
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$3,122
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,267
• − Management: −$1,267
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,084
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$260
• After-tax cash flow: $1,157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield SD 186
• NCES district ID: 1737080
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,744
• Composite: 16.89/100
• National rank: #9142
• State rank: #438 of 620 in IL

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #2138

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, IL
• County: Sangamon County · 115,414 people
• City population: 59,955
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• Population (ZIP): 28,922
• Household income: $45,009
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1626.0

Population outlook (Sangamon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,317 people
• By 2030: 196,127 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 188,664 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 179,624 · -9.4%
• By 2075: 155,027 · -21.8%
• By 2100: 122,588 · -38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 35% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sangamon

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.6% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.3pp toward R · 2008: 4.4pp · 2024: -5.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.0 2020: R+4.4 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.69%
• Current HPI: 147.0877
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.19%
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+29.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $125,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $144,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Listed $145,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $96,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,122 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.