4202 Shimerville Rd · Harris Hill, NY 14031

$229,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,146 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1950 0.32 ac lot Est $274k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy Cape Cod on a nice lot located in the Town of Clarence featuring three bedrooms, bonus room upstairs, could be bedroom or den, hardwood floors, bay window in the living room, 1st floor laundry, and detached 1 ½ car garage. New roof on house and garage in 2011, some rooms freshly painted, electrical system was updated approx. two years ago.

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $472 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $230k).
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.6% in Harris Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#345 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Clarence Central School District (suburban): math 70% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #94 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $230k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $229,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.80%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $273,894
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4306 Shimerville Rd	0.23mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (+0%)	9mo	$253,000	$220	76
4291 Roxbury Dr	0.22mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,160 (+1%)	24mo	$275,000	$237	61
4286 Shimerville Rd	0.18mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (+9%)	14mo	$262,000	$210	60
4331 Cameron Dr	0.28mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,039 (-9%)	14mo	$332,500	$320	54
4317 Shimerville Rd	0.25mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-12%)	14mo	$300,000	$298	52
4139 Wildwood Dr	0.65mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,278 (+12%)	4mo	$305,000	$239	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-7,165
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $32,607
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14031

• Home prices YoY: -16.4%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,604 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$284 /mo · $3,407/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $472

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,007

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $602	-5% $537	+0% $472	+5% $407	+10% $342
Rent	-10% $266	-5% $369	+0% $472	+5% $575	+10% $678
Rate	-1.0pp $588	-0.5pp $530	base $472	+0.5pp $412	+1.0pp $352

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4241 Capstone Cir Williamsville, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$2,604	$2.33	2d	8	1.46mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $229,900 Active
3. 2012-08-03
   soldstatus $106,300 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   Cozy Cape Cod on a nice lot located in the Town of Clarence featuring three bedrooms, bonus room upstairs, could be bedroom or den, hardwood floors, bay window in the living room, 1st floor laundry, and detached 1 ½ car garage. New roof on house and garage in 2011, some rooms freshly painted, electrical system was updated approx. two years ago.

4. 2012-07-26
   soldstatus $106,300
5. 2012-01-21
   listed $109,900 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   Cozy Cape Cod on a nice lot located in the Town of Clarence featuring three bedrooms, bonus room upstairs, could be bedroom or den, hardwood floors, bay window in the living room, 1st floor laundry, and detached 1 ½ car garage. New roof on house and garage in 2011, some rooms freshly painted, electrical system was updated approx. two years ago.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,407 · $284/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,646 · $304/mo
• Expected delta: +$239/yr (+$20/mo · 7.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$3,407
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,500
• − Management: −$2,500
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable income: $2,126
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$510
• After-tax cash flow: $5,152/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clarence Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607590
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,568
• Composite: 64.85/100
• National rank: #514
• State rank: #94 of 590 in NY

Livability — Harris Hill

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #345
• US rank: #5816

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harris Hill, NY
• Population (ZIP): 9,741

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Portuguese 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.27%
• Current HPI: 344.136
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+109.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $229,900 WNYREIS
• 2012-08-03 Sold (MLS) $106,300 WNYREIS
• 2012-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $106,300 Public Records
• 2012-01-21 Listed $109,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,407 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.