3436 Camanche Pkwy · Camanche North Shore, CA 95640

$216,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 2001 0.27 ac lot Est $406k · 47% under $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled in the desirable Lake Camanche area! This inviting property offers a spacious and comfortable layout featuring a separate living room and dining roomperfect for everyday living or entertaining guests. Large windows bring in plenty of natural light, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere throughout. The kitchen with island provides ample storage and functionality, while the nicely sized bedrooms offer comfort and versatility for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, you'll appreciate the detached garage, ideal for parking, RV storage, or workshop space. Enjoy peaceful surroundings, nearby lake access, and the relaxed lifestyle th

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2001

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $216k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $297 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $216k).
• Recommended offer: $203k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,095 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Amador County Unified (town): math 23% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #330 of 517 in CA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Amador County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Amador County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $216k implies a 882% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,040 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.90%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $406,500
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3655 Lakeview Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,532 (+2%)	14mo	$415,000	$271	70
3735 Lakeview Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-11%)	1mo	$375,000	$282	67
4165 Lakeview Dr	0.73mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,630 (+9%)	15mo	$440,000	$270	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-16,090
• Equity at exit: $32,206

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $10,298
• Equity at exit: $18,676

Cash invested: $60,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95640

• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,167 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,133
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,213/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,791

Max offer price $216,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,000
• Closing costs: $6,480
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 1 events

1. 2000-11-09
   soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,213 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,213 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 28 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,009
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,099
• − Property taxes: −$2,213
• − Insurance: −$1,080
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,081
• − Management: −$2,081
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$6,284
• Taxable income: $76
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$18
• After-tax cash flow: $3,548/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amador County Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602450
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,428
• Composite: 26.67/100
• National rank: #7163
• State rank: #330 of 517 in CA

Livability — Camanche North Shore

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1095
• US rank: #25438

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Camanche North Shore, CA
• Population (ZIP): 12,811

Population outlook (Amador County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,295 people
• By 2030: 34,147 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 31,618 · -10.4%
• By 2050: 29,913 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 27,308 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 23,465 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Amador

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.8) · D 34.7% · R 62.6% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -14.6pp · 2024: -27.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.8 2020: R+24.4 2016: R+25.2 2012: R+19.0 2008: R+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.63%
• Current HPI: 169.9705
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2000-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,213 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.