1206 Hershel Dr · Elgin, OK 73538

$247,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Land public records · 27 Days on market

Built 2007 10,200 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful well maintained (3) bedroom home with 2 full bathrooms. This home is located in established Bridgetown Neighborhood in Elgin, OK. Spacious living room with electric fireplace, separate dining room, kitchen with lots of covered storage, 2 car garage with inside storm cellar and covered patio. Roof replaced in 2020. Call me today to schedule a private showing, Tiffany Walker 580-308-4645.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Brand new roof
• New flooring

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• SPACIOUS YARD
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• BRAND NEW ROOF
• IN GARAGE STORM SHELTER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2 covered parking spaces; 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Updated/remodeled
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Slab foundation; Built or updated (year not provided)
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Storm doors; Wood fencing; Composition roof; Publicly maintained road frontage on a city street

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Oven; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Fireplace heating; Central air; Heat pump; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Walk-in closets; Electric fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $248k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-925/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#17 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Elgin (rural): math 29% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #38 of 270 in OK (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elgin Es (math 36% / reading 33%, grade F, #168 of 845 statewide, top 24%, 945 students, 0% FRL); Elgin Ms (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #49 of 345 statewide, top 15%, 791 students, 0% FRL); Elgin Hs (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #42 of 447 statewide, top 10%, 771 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 29% district-wide (29 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 133 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Comanche County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $198k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,778 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.33%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $129,842
• Equity at exit: $222,968

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.57×
• Total profit: $386,137
• Equity at exit: $480,838

Cash invested: $69,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73538

• Home prices YoY: 22.9%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,918 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,298
• Tax from tax record: −$191 /mo · $2,293/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,015

Max offer price $233,884

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,875
• Closing costs: $7,425
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1205 Alma Dr Elgin, OK	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,900	$1.06	12d	1	0.02mi
107 Oak St Elgin, OK	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,295	$1.00	12d	1	0.15mi
1534 Stonehouse Dr Elgin, OK	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,975	$1.16	24d	1	0.38mi
1517 Stonehouse Dr Elgin, OK	4.0	2.0	1565	$1,700	$1.09	21d	1	0.44mi
313 Marilyn Glover Dr Elgin, OK	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,650	$1.03	24d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $247,500 Pending 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $247,500 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $247,500 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $247,500 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $247,500 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-05-08
   listed $249,900 Active
7. 2025-10-23
   listed $249,000 Active
8. 2024-02-29
   historical $1,500
9. 2024-02-25
   listed $1,500
10. 2022-09-23
    soldstatus $198,000
11. 2022-09-22
    soldstatus $198,000 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Beautiful well maintained (3) bedroom home with 2 full bathrooms. This home is located in established Bridgetown Neighborhood in Elgin, OK. Spacious living room with electric fireplace, separate dining room, kitchen with lots of covered storage, 2 car garage with inside storm cellar and covered patio. Roof replaced in 2020. Call me today to schedule a private showing, Tiffany Walker 580-308-4645.

12. 2022-08-05
    listed $202,000 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Beautiful well maintained (3) bedroom home with 2 full bathrooms. This home is located in established Bridgetown Neighborhood in Elgin, OK. Spacious living room with electric fireplace, separate dining room, kitchen with lots of covered storage, 2 car garage with inside storm cellar and covered patio. Roof replaced in 2020. Call me today to schedule a private showing, Tiffany Walker 580-308-4645.

13. 2018-02-09
    soldstatus $152,500
14. 2017-11-06
    listed $155,000
15. 2012-08-15
    soldstatus $163,000
16. 2012-08-15
    soldstatus $163,000
17. 2012-03-25
    listed $163,000
18. 2008-10-28
    soldstatus $153,000
19. 2008-10-28
    soldstatus $153,000
20. 2008-09-08
    listed $154,900
21. 2007-06-18
    soldstatus $182,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,293 · $191/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,293 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,013
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,864
• − Property taxes: −$2,293
• − Insurance: −$1,238
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,841
• − Management: −$1,841
• − Depreciation: −$7,200
• Taxable loss: −$5,263
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,263
• After-tax cash flow: $338/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin
• NCES district ID: 4010710
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,900
• Composite: 29.77/100
• National rank: #6432
• State rank: #38 of 270 in OK

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #5411

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, OK
• County: Comanche County · 96,361 people
• City population: 7,128
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• Population (ZIP): 7,128
• Household income: $91,324
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Comanche County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 124,518 people
• By 2030: 124,231 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 122,193 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 120,368 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 120,492 · -3.2%
• By 2100: 123,113 · -1.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 13% Native American 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comanche

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.3) · D 37.4% · R 60.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: -17.5pp · 2024: -23.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.3 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 45.70%
• Current HPI: 245.4249
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+37.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $249,900 LBRMLS
• 2025-10-23 Listed $249,000 LBRMLS
• 2024-02-29 Rental Removed $1,500 ONSITEPROPERTYMANAGER
• 2024-02-25 Listed for Rent $1,500 ONSITEPROPERTYMANAGER
• 2022-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $198,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-22 Sold (MLS) $198,000 LBRMLS
• 2022-08-05 Listed $202,000 LBRMLS
• 2018-02-09 Sold (MLS) $152,500 LBRMLS
• 2017-11-06 Listed $155,000 LBRMLS
• 2012-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $163,000 Public Records
• 2012-08-15 Sold (MLS) $163,000 LBRMLS
• 2012-03-25 Listed $163,000 LBRMLS
• 2008-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $153,000 Public Records
• 2008-10-28 Sold (MLS) $153,000 LBRMLS
• 2008-09-08 Listed $154,900 LBRMLS
• 2007-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $182,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2023): $2,293 · +23.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.