None · Happy Valley, CA 96007

$59,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1978 1.15 ac lot ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY W UTILITIES IN PLACE Property features a 792 sq ft manufactured home (2bed, 2 bath) that is in significant disrepair and being sold as-is. The parcel of 1.15 includes a well and pump, septic and offers room for improvements or replacement of the existing structure. Ideal for cash buyers, contractors, or investors looking for land with utilities. Schedule your showing today to explore this ranch-style home's potential and spacious layout. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property.

Key facts

• 1.15 acre lot
• Built 1978
• Listed 56 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured residential property; One level
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Other roof
• Exterior features: Rolling slope lot; Other lot features; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating (other type); Has cooling (other type)
• Interior features: No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $750 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.6% vs local median 3.4% in Happy Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Happy Valley Union Elementary (rural): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #414 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 231 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $408 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,230 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.49%
• DSCR: 3.42
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $38,248
• Equity at exit: $8,797

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.75×
• Total profit: $94,952
• Equity at exit: $5,101

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96007

• Active inventory: 231
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,483 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,047/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $750

Break-even live

Break-even rent $533

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $784	-5% $767	+0% $750	+5% $733	+10% $717
Rent	-10% $633	-5% $692	+0% $750	+5% $809	+10% $867
Rate	-1.0pp $780	-0.5pp $765	base $750	+0.5pp $735	+1.0pp $719

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-21
   price $59,000
2. 2026-04-28
   status Active
3. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-21
   price $60,000
5. 2026-03-30
   listed $65,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,047 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,047 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,794
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$1,047
• − Insurance: −$295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,424
• − Management: −$1,424
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $8,583
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,060
• After-tax cash flow: $6,942/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Happy Valley Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0616570
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $51,093
• Composite: 21.32/100
• National rank: #8375
• State rank: #414 of 517 in CA

Livability — Happy Valley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Happy Valley, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 24,768
• Household income: $61,357
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 758.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 12% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -191.70%
• Current HPI: 179.6613
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-9.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $59,000 SAOR
• 2026-04-28 Relisted — SAOR
• 2026-04-27 Pending — SAOR
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $60,000 SAOR
• 2026-03-30 Listed $65,000 SAOR

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,047 · -22.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.