23 Mount Sterling Ave · Winooski, VT 05446

$140,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 952 sqft · Manufactured public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1995

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully Renovated Home in a Prime Colchester Location This well-maintained and fully renovated home offers convenience, comfort, and an unbeatable location between Winooski and Essex. Situated directly on the bus line and just minutes from Interstate 89, this property provides quick access to shopping, restaurants, medical facilities, Burlington, and surrounding areas. Enjoy the convenience of Dunkin & acirc; & euro; & trade; , Cumberland Farms, restaurants, and a hospital all located just across the street, while still having a private lot to relax and enjoy Vermont living. The property sits on a nicely maintained grassy lot that is partially fenced and includes off-street

Key facts

• Renovated home
• Large covered porch
• Private lot setting

Tags

• RENOVATED HOME
• PRIME COLCHESTER LOCATION
• BUS LINE ACCESS
• PRIVATE LOT SETTING
• LARGE COVERED PORCH
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $846 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 4.0% in Winooski — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#5 in VT, #831 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 898 units permitted in Chittenden County in 2024 (554 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chittenden County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $140k implies a 438% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $137,900 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.89%
• DSCR: 2.15
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $73,304
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39 Mt. Sterling Ave	0.02mi	2/1.0	896 (-6%)	11mo	$69,000	$77	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $31,144
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $96,325
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05446

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,147 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $695/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $846

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,077

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $925	-5% $885	+0% $846	+5% $806	+10% $767
Rent	-10% $676	-5% $761	+0% $846	+5% $931	+10% $1,015
Rate	-1.0pp $916	-0.5pp $881	base $846	+0.5pp $810	+1.0pp $773

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
268 E Allen St Winooski, VT	2.0	1.0	908	$2,550	$2.81	21d	1	0.98mi
65 Winooski Falls Way Winooski, VT	2.0–3.0	2.0	1103	$2,414	$2.19	21d	9	1.35mi
21 Pinecrest Dr Unit 305 Essex Junction, VT	1.0	1.0	761	$1,666	$2.19	44d	1	1.37mi
23 Weaver Ln Unit 1A Winooski, VT	2.0	1.0	767	$1,500	$1.96	21d	1	1.39mi
25 Winooski Falls Way Winooski, VT	2.0–8.0	1.0–2.0	822	$850	$1.03	21d	11	1.40mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $140,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $140,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 6 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 5 DOM
18. 2026-05-26
    listed $155,000 Active
19. 2007-03-29
    soldstatus $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $695 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,678 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: +$982/yr (+$82/mo · 141.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,766
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$695
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,061
• − Management: −$2,061
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $8,333
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,000
• After-tax cash flow: $8,150/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Winooski

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #831

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime D Employment B Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chittenden County · 110,603 people
• City population: 8,293
• Metro: Burlington-South Burlington, VT
• Population (ZIP): 16,452
• Household income: $97,475
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 259.0

Population outlook (Chittenden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 170,769 people
• By 2030: 174,716 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 180,337 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 183,768 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 194,646 · +14.0%
• By 2100: 194,933 · +14.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 14% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, India, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Chittenden

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 75.4% · R 21.7% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: 44.8pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+54.5 2016: D+46.8 2012: D+41.9 2008: D+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.02%
• Current HPI: 406.7675
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Burlington-South Burlington, VT
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+496.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $155,000 FSBO.com
• 2007-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $695 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.