10875 NW Moon Rise Ln · Port St. Lucie, FL 34987

$445,701

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,451 sqft · Land · 13 Days on market

Built 2026 6,825 sqft lot $207/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 59% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The first floor of this two-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, dining area and family room with access to the patio. A secondary bedroom on the first floor can easily be converted to a guest room or home office. Upstairs is a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space, along with three secondary bedrooms and a luxe owner's suite comprised of an en-suite bathroom and a large walk-in closet. Prices, dimensions and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Guest room
• Access to patio
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• ACCESS TO PATIO
• VERSATILE LOFT
• GUEST ROOM
• HOME OFFICE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $446k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-498 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $358k (19.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $322k (27.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $322k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.9% in Port St. Lucie — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Windmill Point Elementary School (math 49% / reading 51%, grade D+, #1,070 of 2,144 statewide, top 51%, 1,006 students, 68% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 1146 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $321,757 (27.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.79%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-104,640
• Equity at exit: $66,455

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-134,874
• Equity at exit: $38,536

Cash invested: $124,796 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34987

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 1146
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,218 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,337
• Tax from tax record: −$310 /mo · $3,715/yr
• Insurance: −$186
• HOA: −$207
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$676
• Net cashflow: $-498

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,848

Max offer price $357,782

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-245	-5% $-372	+0% $-498	+5% $-624	+10% $-750
Rent	-10% $-752	-5% $-625	+0% $-498	+5% $-371	+10% $-244
Rate	-1.0pp $-273	-0.5pp $-384	base $-498	+0.5pp $-613	+1.0pp $-731

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,425
• Closing costs: $13,371
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10875 NW Moon Rise Ln Port St Lucie, FL	5.0	3.5	2451	$2,900	$1.18	15d	1	0.01mi
10802 NW Moon Rise Ln Port St Lucie, FL	6.0	3.0	2458	$3,000	$1.22	15d	1	0.07mi
10793 NW Everbreeze Dr Port St. Lucie, FL	6.0	3.0	2458	$3,000	$1.22	15d	1	0.13mi
10722 NW Moon Rise Ln Port St Lucie, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$3,190	$1.37	24d	1	0.14mi
5892 NW Sweetwood Dr Port St Lucie, FL	6.0	3.0	2458	$3,000	$1.22	22d	1	0.30mi
5936 NW Mangrove Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,500	$1.37	24d	1	0.31mi
5944 NW Mangrove Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	5.0	3.0	2451	$3,000	$1.22	24d	1	0.32mi
6362 NW Windwood Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	2474	$3,000	$1.21	22d	1	0.49mi
6394 NW Windwood Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1937	$2,600	$1.34	24d	1	0.53mi
6544 NW Cloverdale Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1916	$3,100	$1.62	24d	1	0.76mi
6816 NW Cloverdale Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	3.0	2200	$2,950	$1.34	24d	1	0.78mi
6784 NW Cloverdale Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	3.0	2200	$2,990	$1.36	24d	1	0.82mi
6632 NW Cloverdale Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	3.0	2200	$2,990	$1.36	24d	1	0.83mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $207 · $2,484/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-27
   listed $445,701 Active
3. 2025-11-13
   soldstatus $1,100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,715 · $310/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,715 · $310/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,611
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,966
• − Property taxes: −$3,715
• − Insurance: −$2,229
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,089
• − Management: −$3,089
• − HOA: −$2,484
• − Depreciation: −$12,966
• Taxable loss: −$13,926
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,342
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,630/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port St. Lucie, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $90,201
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 597.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 12% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.23%
• Current HPI: 269.222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-59.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $445,701 Beaches MLS
• 2025-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $1,100,000 Public Records